ES is shaping up nicely for my new scenario, especially with the smallest Schiff set respected very well so far:



However the W4 triangle on the main index could have already been completed on Friday and in such case the usual Sunday/Monday procedure should take place from the start of trading.

Back to the upper price flow, and reacting. This coil is now 'max'ed out', it can't get any tighter...

jim- me too... but he has been talking alot lately about trading having a higher purpose....

And the break is to the downside, in the after cash, which closes right at the original lower downsloping line. But, once again, it 'tricked' my read, which I thought was more likely up first. So, it broke down instead first, which has me thinking it will now start the move up, now that so many are trapped in here. We'll see. It's interesting to me how many times this thing has been able to get me to think it was going to make a certain move, and then it snap trapped. Just my opinion, but if it's good enough to suck me in (not as a trade, just as a 'read'), it's a great trap, done by 'the best', as I'm not easily fooled. And I find all that fascinating, as I watch and wait for setups.

Very interesting, roofer. He seems like a deeply philosophical guy.

Originally posted by roofer

jim- me too... but he has been talking alot lately about trading having a higher purpose....

Very curious the ES is still dropping. Not what I expected. Has me wondering if the clear break of the 'triangle' to the downside isn't the trap, and up it goes.

Note that tomorrow is rollover day for the ES, out to the June contract for front month now.

Originally posted by jimkane

Very curious the ES is still dropping...

They have to resolve it somehow. Maybe there will be no traps, just straight down this time around? That would also be kind of game with all those waiting for something complex to happen. And the thinking here could be kind of "I know, that he knows, that I know, that he knows"

...and here is the chart supporting such scenario. I moved to new series for a couple of days to eliminate the rollover influence:

Originally posted by jarek

Just one clash and retreat??

And yet bulls managed to gather forces for a counter attack:



Smells test and retest

Originally posted by jarek

Wouldn't this bearish KZ 4PT that back-tested broken lower ML be a nice confirmation of a change in a short term trend in EUR?

Looks like it needed one more test of this broken lower ML, which happened at the D point of a nice KZ DB ABCD:

ES behavior suggests that yesterday's complex action might have been just a test and multiple retests of this upper ML:



In such case the major ML (around 1280 now and falling) would be the minimum target for the decline

yes, thanks jim

Originally posted by jimkane
Hopefully at least this leaves you with some understanding of my reasons.