I decided to post my few comments on my levels in a separate topic so it doesn't get lost. There are just a few observations I have made on my levels, and thought they'd be helpful.

First, by now everyone should have noticed almost always my first level is for an ABCD. Many times one should notice it only gets to my first level, then rolls over. A lot of times that says it is reacting to the first place it can, the ABCD. That implies, to me, trend strength.

Now, if an ABCD blows out, what do I usually say? Looks like a 'W3' to me. So, go back to your Elliott texts and work and see where 'W3's' usually go to. See if that fits with lines and .382's and .447's, and all the other things you all know I look for. There's level two. I expect a checkback there, and depending on the overall layout, it may end there (yes, many runs end at the end of 'W3', and no 'W4' and 'W5' happen at all, sorry all you Elliott wavers, but the market does what it does), or it may continue.

If a checkback occurs and it is then going up to a 'W5' point, where is that likely to be? There's my next level. Always? Heck no. I am watching where the lines come in, where the .382's and .447's are, or other Fibs if that is appropriate, I am using all my work. If things come together in one spot, then it's a level. If not, then I don't have a level. I am, as always, looking to see if all the concepts produce clear confluence levels. If they do, then I have my levels. If not, I don't.

Here's a key observation that's I've made about my levels, and no one has pointed it out (which is disappointing to me...). Sometimes I see a lot of turns at the first level. That implies trend strength to me. If it can blow out that ABCD (sometimes it not an ABCD, but it is still the first level), or whatever the first level is, the trend needs a bigger correction, or it may be done. If it can get to the third level, it is really going counter-trend for quite a while, and I note that.

Notice, too, though, how it seems rare the third level is taken out without some kind of a good-sized reaction. That is very useful information. Sometimes it happens, but not too often in my experience. So, what you have are three levels that each have specific significance, and fit into a bigger picture of how I evaluate what is transpiring. It's more than just levels, it's about what is unfolding. There are lots of clues in how it handles the levels. Study this.

Now today I commented in the intraday trading topic about how the levels weren't all coming together in confluences like I'd like. What was falling out? The key .300's, .382's, .447's, and so on. They were doing their own thing, not hitting with everything else. And the lines I wanted to see, they were not happening either. So, I had general ideas, but nothing really clear.

And where did it turn? Between my two key levels that I posted. And what was there? The most important .447 was right between my two levels, a clear warning sign for me. It was at 1148.50, and the high was 1149.00, and it dropped 29.50 points hard right off that. I had to be ready anywhere in there, because the levels were not as distinct as usual.

I only posted them, in haste as the action was furious, because I knew some key levels were coming into view. But I also knew they were not as distinct and clear as those I usually work with. Whether this is a market distortion because of the extreme volatility or not I can't say. But we have to trade the market as it is, and I have to decide what is clear enough, and what is not. How much has my edge formed, and is it good enough?

To me that's trading reality, and I try to talk about this in the forum, and get discussion going, but it doesn't seem to happen. Setups are a dynamic process with lots of moving parts, and at best I holistically look at all the components and see what the score is, and see if that meets my minimum criteria. It's a subjective process, and I wish there were more written on it out there, but there isn't. Nothing about what I do can be clearly quantified and then it is obvious that it is 'good enough'. It's based on experience and holistic scoring, using specific criteria. I hope this helps.

Here was the context from higher time frame(15min)for the previouly shown 1min traded TF chart,showing the potential resistance at .300 and yellow WL, thus the reason why the previously shown trade was managed to be for a short term single trust .Traded TF was 1min chart . Now if you shift your traded time frame to this one , then you may have the making for a short side setup using this shown time frame. If synergy is there with fibs,some lines and non-linear WL then you can get more probabilities on your side.
when I say probabilities I mean confidence level for trading decisions.
T

look at this action, the scale out was apprapriate in this context. Note the flow shift and time frames shifting from lower(1m/5min) to higher(15m) for another setup with non-linear tool and fib.
T

Management scale out for a single thrust move exit executed right here (red MA)



End of series for today.
T

Wow I think I've bored everyone to death...awfully quiet forum today. That shows the level of interest in this topic is like below zero ...sad.
T

I actually find it quite useful and informative. I'm not posting much right now due to health reasons. I'd hate for you to quit posting on this because I'm unable to respond a lot at this time. As far as the others, well, first off, welcome to my world (filled with all the rants I have done over the years for this very same reason).

Second, I can't explain it, but many simply will not even post an acknowledgement or post saying they find something useful. I can't explain it. Even if they find something wildly useful, and they really love it, if the poster says he's going to stop posting unless he/she gets some feedback, those same people will let them stop posting what they find so useful instead of making a simple post in response. I have no explanation for how such people think. None whatsoever.

Lastly, I think quite a few people are 'away' right now for whatever reasons. So, I'd like to say I hope you keep posting, but recall those days where I did like thirty to fifty posts, and at the end of the day I was the only one posting. It's just the way it is...

Ah, 'slate pile', I see...

Originally posted by roofer

my friend joed likes to say i think like a roofer in my trading... one piece of slate at a time installed to the best of my ability.

t - there was a time when tim morge was ill and i was the only poster for almost 18 months at his forum except for the occasional question if the forum was closed.... i am studying your posts.....

J,
Hope you get well very soon. You don't have to post anything at all if you don't feel right.

Roofer,
Thanks for being such an awesome presence in the forum. Please feel free to comment anything you want on the work I've presented.

To all the forum readers,
please don't be fooled by the 'unsophisticated' look of the chart examples. For the sake of educational information on the non-linear methods, I've only shown the relevant elements so that you can see what I meant by non-linear tool concepts and its application in a more concrete, practical manner.
It may look simple and fairly unsophisticated to many, but know that in order to get this down to a simple working method I had to go through very extensive and intensive researches in my 'trading Lab' .Took me about three years of brainstorming this .Then when all the pieces are tested and sorted out, I could filter it to leave only what works and kick out the extra irrelevant stuff.
So if you're just coming in and see the tools at first glance you might think "that's it?"...well yeah. But the thing is, I TRUST my work. Because I put out the efforts to get there...
'
T

Anyone see this?
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7088/-1/the-fib-grid

Jim , from what's posted out there, you are not the original 886fib pioneer... that really throw in some misdirection as to what 'real' 'mathematically-backed' numbers are. I know I'll take Jim's fib levels any time of the day over what's being thrown around out there these days...it seems there's a fib level on every single tick the chart makes nowadays. How the hell can you name something, some numbers, FIB? when all that's fib is the name?
Seriously? really? fib grid? a fib grid made of totally mathematically-untrue to the fibonacci number series!?! how can it be related to fibonacci and the natural order of things? and to outright 'fill-in' the holes/gaps in that grid with an arbitrary 6.25 number is just lazy patchwork for the sake of conveniently covering up any shortcomings in the methods IMO. But yeah if that works then that's great but would you stake your financial well-being on a fabricated "fib-grid"? There are similarities to the Gann levels etc as explained in one of Jim's book "totally new 5pt pattern' chapter2. But to call something FIB when it is NOT is just plain idiotic.
It's disappointing to see such misinformation. But I realize how blessed I am/We are to have come across Jim's work.
While I disagree with the work he's presented, BruceM is a well respected forum member. But I'm not sure if his post is helpful to traders unfamiliar with fibonacci work.

WL with .685 , EURusd 1min chart


Price action within WL is no random event, 15second EUR/USDcash

we are often most critical of that which we fear most in ourselves... note the nature of bruce m. posts today.out of control..not tolerating any differences or questions.joed always said that forums self destruct in such a way... i feel bad for our generous host having to watch this....