I decided to post my few comments on my levels in a separate topic so it doesn't get lost. There are just a few observations I have made on my levels, and thought they'd be helpful.

First, by now everyone should have noticed almost always my first level is for an ABCD. Many times one should notice it only gets to my first level, then rolls over. A lot of times that says it is reacting to the first place it can, the ABCD. That implies, to me, trend strength.

Now, if an ABCD blows out, what do I usually say? Looks like a 'W3' to me. So, go back to your Elliott texts and work and see where 'W3's' usually go to. See if that fits with lines and .382's and .447's, and all the other things you all know I look for. There's level two. I expect a checkback there, and depending on the overall layout, it may end there (yes, many runs end at the end of 'W3', and no 'W4' and 'W5' happen at all, sorry all you Elliott wavers, but the market does what it does), or it may continue.

If a checkback occurs and it is then going up to a 'W5' point, where is that likely to be? There's my next level. Always? Heck no. I am watching where the lines come in, where the .382's and .447's are, or other Fibs if that is appropriate, I am using all my work. If things come together in one spot, then it's a level. If not, then I don't have a level. I am, as always, looking to see if all the concepts produce clear confluence levels. If they do, then I have my levels. If not, I don't.

Here's a key observation that's I've made about my levels, and no one has pointed it out (which is disappointing to me...). Sometimes I see a lot of turns at the first level. That implies trend strength to me. If it can blow out that ABCD (sometimes it not an ABCD, but it is still the first level), or whatever the first level is, the trend needs a bigger correction, or it may be done. If it can get to the third level, it is really going counter-trend for quite a while, and I note that.

Notice, too, though, how it seems rare the third level is taken out without some kind of a good-sized reaction. That is very useful information. Sometimes it happens, but not too often in my experience. So, what you have are three levels that each have specific significance, and fit into a bigger picture of how I evaluate what is transpiring. It's more than just levels, it's about what is unfolding. There are lots of clues in how it handles the levels. Study this.

Now today I commented in the intraday trading topic about how the levels weren't all coming together in confluences like I'd like. What was falling out? The key .300's, .382's, .447's, and so on. They were doing their own thing, not hitting with everything else. And the lines I wanted to see, they were not happening either. So, I had general ideas, but nothing really clear.

And where did it turn? Between my two key levels that I posted. And what was there? The most important .447 was right between my two levels, a clear warning sign for me. It was at 1148.50, and the high was 1149.00, and it dropped 29.50 points hard right off that. I had to be ready anywhere in there, because the levels were not as distinct as usual.

I only posted them, in haste as the action was furious, because I knew some key levels were coming into view. But I also knew they were not as distinct and clear as those I usually work with. Whether this is a market distortion because of the extreme volatility or not I can't say. But we have to trade the market as it is, and I have to decide what is clear enough, and what is not. How much has my edge formed, and is it good enough?

To me that's trading reality, and I try to talk about this in the forum, and get discussion going, but it doesn't seem to happen. Setups are a dynamic process with lots of moving parts, and at best I holistically look at all the components and see what the score is, and see if that meets my minimum criteria. It's a subjective process, and I wish there were more written on it out there, but there isn't. Nothing about what I do can be clearly quantified and then it is obvious that it is 'good enough'. It's based on experience and holistic scoring, using specific criteria. I hope this helps.

My favorite part of that topic was this quote from him:

"I've only seen one person post real time trades that work with projections and that is Kool blue from our forum here. Many can post "lines" with projections and other methods but few actually trade them. Can't say I didn't worn you. I may not be the best trader in the world but I've been at the emini since 1998 and seen too many "line" and "wave" traders turn large sums of money into small ones.

My first mentor called it Elliott "wave Goodbye to your money" for a reason...."

If they could only see the reads I posted in here, in advance, more than I can count, perhaps thousands of them. The accuracy, in my opinion, was stunning. If they could only see what the entire body of my work has accomplished, as I apply it daily. To see what I see... But they never will, and I'm slowly accepting that. Only a tiny handful will see anything in my work, and none will see anything close to what I see (but some, like T here, will see far beyond my work with the direction they take it themselves from my starting point). I can accept that.

I kind of got a little haywire in the brain when I read the above, and actually detailed a serious plan, up to asking my attorney how to draw it up, as a response. Kind of like a last hooray to my contact with 'the public'. After thinking it over I decided not to do it. I just need to get back on task with my own life, and not get sucked into nonsense with anyone, especially this guy, who was the start of all that insanity out in the public area before. Best to just not be involved in any way, shape, or form with people like that.

Here was the plan: I was going to offer for him to come to my place and sit beside me for a minimum of one full trading week, day and night (I like night trading). Everything would be video documented. Not just the good, but the bad, everything. Every minute of every session. He would also be in all the video documentation. He would have to sign a release for all the videos. No time lapse, the videos would be 24/7. Everything would be posted on my website after the 'experiment'.

He could be free to post results, but they must be in line with the videos and the audited statements that would follow the videos. Any deviation from that, as far as what he said, would be called on the line. The point of all this is to see what he thought after such an experience. To see if he could stick with the above statements after the sessions. Of course a rigorous non-disclosure statement would be in place before he could see any of my work, and it would be 'iron-clad' as far as repercussions and such.

When I contemplated the work and expense of such a task, and of actively engaging such a person, after the incident in the public area, I came to my senses and realized that seeing what I am confident would be the expression on his face wasn't worth the trouble, and I gave it up. But, I was as close as possible to posting the offer in the public area as I could have been without actually doing it. I guess I'm glad I came to before I did it. Still, I think the look on his face would have been: priceless.

Originally posted by TonyC

Anyone see this?
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7088/-1/the-fib-grid

Jim , from what's posted out there, you are not the original 886fib pioneer... that really throw in some misdirection as to what 'real' 'mathematically-backed' numbers are. I know I'll take Jim's fib levels any time of the day over what's being thrown around out there these days...it seems there's a fib level on every single tick the chart makes nowadays. How the hell can you name something, some numbers, FIB? when all that's fib is the name?
Seriously? really? fib grid? a fib grid made of totally mathematically-untrue to the fibonacci number series!?! how can it be related to fibonacci and the natural order of things? and to outright 'fill-in' the holes/gaps in that grid with an arbitrary 6.25 number is just lazy patchwork for the sake of conveniently covering up any shortcomings in the methods IMO. But yeah if that works then that's great but would you stake your financial well-being on a fabricated "fib-grid"? There are similarities to the Gann levels etc as explained in one of Jim's book "totally new 5pt pattern' chapter2. But to call something FIB when it is NOT is just plain idiotic.
It's disappointing to see such misinformation. But I realize how blessed I am/We are to have come across Jim's work.
While I disagree with the work he's presented, BruceM is a well respected forum member. But I'm not sure if his post is helpful to traders unfamiliar with fibonacci work.

Sorry Jim, I didn't mean to awaken the 'beast' within you. I honestly didnot know that guy was actually the one who provoked all the insanity at the public area. I just came across that topic about Fib-grid and was just intrigued by his claims only to later find out his total non-sense BS-grid he came up with. The only thing I can do is laugh it off and move on. Let's not get involved in futile insanity. Some will see the light, some won't ever...that's just the way it is. I guess you can say it is just nature taking its course by natural selection. Some will have predisposed character attributes to let open to new knowledge that will affect their evolution as traders and, some will have such strong egos and pride that their mind is in perpetual denial of the knowledge they seek. No wonder there is such a low rate of successful traders around but it is a fact that's 'necessary' I think. Why bother trying to make a chicken fly like an eagle? they are just not programmed for flight. You can will yourself into becoming a successful trader but noone else can force that onto you without your consent. So let's no try to force our trading methods onto others, it would be a waste of time and counter productive.

T

No worries, T, I actually had found the Fib grid thing before you posted that, and came up with my proposal before reading your post. I don't read the public area pretty much at all anymore after all that happened. I actually stumbled upon the topic via a somewhat circuitous path. Time to forget all that and get back to business. I only posted because I already had 'one in the chamber' on the topic and thought I'd toss it out there.

well that goes on to say that we weren't alone in our separate yet similar opinion about the guy's claims...wow another funny think-alike moment.

aren't there some rules about personal attacks?moderator are you out there?

look.... it is just plain the unfortunate luck of the draw that jim's forum is tied to a larger group of forums where one person is driven to disparage any work different than his...unfortunately the moderator is tolerating personal attacks that according to his own rules are not supposed to be accepted... i CHOOSE a different path, because it is a CHOICE,showing my best work publicly for free. and at the same time listening carefully to any work that is different than mine.. for all our HEALTH,i believe it is time to pack it up and move to a new location...just my 2 cents...

we are often most critical of that which we fear most in ourselves... note the nature of bruce m. posts today.out of control..not tolerating any differences or questions.joed always said that forums self destruct in such a way... i feel bad for our generous host having to watch this....