JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Darn, I was watching the ES, it opened and dropped right to a line I was watching, to the tick, and started up. I got a buy trigger. I decided not to post on this. My motivation wanes from time to time, as I get so little interaction on all my posts. Now the ES is up almost 20 off the low, much more than I expected by now. It's really getting ramped hard. Oh, well, I wish I had posted it as it was happening. I used a really cool line technique to get my line. I had it on there shortly after Friday morning got started.
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roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
jim - again i am playing a VERY SPECIFIC GAME... based on what the computers are doing with the day only session prices..... if by choice, you find it easier to stay up at night and trade different sessions that is the VERY SPECIFIC GAME you excel at.if i had to give one word of of advice to any trader it would be... DO ONE THING WELL.
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roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
ANOTHER WAY TO THINK OF IT IS THIS.the high number of gaps make it even easier for the computers to rake in the money basis their algo's....if and when the game changes,,, i am sure we'll figure it out and adapt...
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I understand that. Everyone should understand, too, that I don't trade your way, pretty much at all. I'm not really a stock trader (outside of option swing plays, which I love, and, in my 'Trading Plan', make up perhaps 40% of my trades?), although I do like SSO, SDS, and to a lesser extent TNA. I like ES, GC, CL, and 6A the most.
I trade my ABCD's, usually at .382/.447's, at lines. That's my 'predefined setup'. That's what I hunt for, like you hunt for .886 gap on 5 at geo. An .886 gap on 5 at geo is as obvious (to me) as blue sky in Arizona is, as are my ABCD's at .382/.447's at lines (geo). Those are what I set up the night before when I do my chartwork and levels. I do pretty much the exact same work every night, night after night, waiting for my predefined setups to come together.
In that way we do the same thing, the same process, we just choose different predefined setups to work around. I only lean towards the aftermarket and overnight a bit more because, for my setups, the action seems better to me. Europe is the epicenter of the 'bad stuff' out there right now, and is the driving force at this point. I actually don't prefer to be up late at night, or in the middle of the night, but if that's where my best predefined setups are, that's where I should be.
Like you said, do one thing well. We've both found what we think we do well at, and we do that. In that way we are in total agreement. I just don't trade the gap on 5 technique because I'm usually already involved in something or working on one of my setups. I do look for them so that when they hit I am aware, and factor that effect into my assessment and 'context' of what I am already doing, though.
I trade my ABCD's, usually at .382/.447's, at lines. That's my 'predefined setup'. That's what I hunt for, like you hunt for .886 gap on 5 at geo. An .886 gap on 5 at geo is as obvious (to me) as blue sky in Arizona is, as are my ABCD's at .382/.447's at lines (geo). Those are what I set up the night before when I do my chartwork and levels. I do pretty much the exact same work every night, night after night, waiting for my predefined setups to come together.
In that way we do the same thing, the same process, we just choose different predefined setups to work around. I only lean towards the aftermarket and overnight a bit more because, for my setups, the action seems better to me. Europe is the epicenter of the 'bad stuff' out there right now, and is the driving force at this point. I actually don't prefer to be up late at night, or in the middle of the night, but if that's where my best predefined setups are, that's where I should be.
Like you said, do one thing well. We've both found what we think we do well at, and we do that. In that way we are in total agreement. I just don't trade the gap on 5 technique because I'm usually already involved in something or working on one of my setups. I do look for them so that when they hit I am aware, and factor that effect into my assessment and 'context' of what I am already doing, though.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, for those that like to think, and know factoids, I have one. Understand, I know this had less than zero to do with .886 gap on 5 techniques, or anything roofer does. Or anything anyone does that involves very short-term technical only trades. But, I have many swing and even position traders in here. Not everyone in here only intraday trades. In fact, I think I have more higher timeframe traders in here than intraday traders. Okay, time for the factoid.
When the monster bear market was on, before the March 2009 low, we had many, many 300+ up days in the Dow. I posted some links for articles showing how the Dow rarely went up 300+ in a bull market, only in bear markets. The stats were impressive. We had endless 300+ days, and many, many people called the bear dead. It wasn't. Then we started to rally off the March 2009 lows, and guess how many 300+ up days we've had to the recent May high? 5? 10? 15? Nope. Zero. Zip. Nada. The big fat horse collar. None. They are, generally, a bear market phenomenon.
Well, guess what just happened today? A 300+ up Dow day. Ah, but Jim, that's not the first time we've done that since the March 2009 low. We did it a few times in that volatile week two weeks ago (on the 9th and the 11th). Uh-huh, yeah, three 300+ up days, all since the May high. Do you see the point yet? The May top may be the start of a bear market, we don't know, and all of the sudden, three 300+ up days. How many from March 2009 to May 2011? Zero.
This was well publicized and ignored as the bear unfolded. No one seemed to notice, or care. I said the new bull will be started when we stop seeing 300+ up days. The bear will be back when we start seeing them again. Now we have three in two weeks. Anyone even looking at this? Hey, nothing works every time, but I sure am not ignoring this as one of the many things I am looking at.
Listen, some people in here also 'trade' their retirement accounts for position. They have been long this whole run up. They are looking to get out at some point, and go to cash. Some in here position trade for long runs, as well as intraday trade. I know of at least one fund manager in here who focuses on longer-term trades.
If you are only an intraday trader, then ignore this if you want. But I am trying to cater to many different styles of trading in here. So, here's something for some of my readers to study and see if there is anything there of use to them. Please, no one comment on how this doesn't matter for their intraday trades, we know that, that's obvious...
When the monster bear market was on, before the March 2009 low, we had many, many 300+ up days in the Dow. I posted some links for articles showing how the Dow rarely went up 300+ in a bull market, only in bear markets. The stats were impressive. We had endless 300+ days, and many, many people called the bear dead. It wasn't. Then we started to rally off the March 2009 lows, and guess how many 300+ up days we've had to the recent May high? 5? 10? 15? Nope. Zero. Zip. Nada. The big fat horse collar. None. They are, generally, a bear market phenomenon.
Well, guess what just happened today? A 300+ up Dow day. Ah, but Jim, that's not the first time we've done that since the March 2009 low. We did it a few times in that volatile week two weeks ago (on the 9th and the 11th). Uh-huh, yeah, three 300+ up days, all since the May high. Do you see the point yet? The May top may be the start of a bear market, we don't know, and all of the sudden, three 300+ up days. How many from March 2009 to May 2011? Zero.
This was well publicized and ignored as the bear unfolded. No one seemed to notice, or care. I said the new bull will be started when we stop seeing 300+ up days. The bear will be back when we start seeing them again. Now we have three in two weeks. Anyone even looking at this? Hey, nothing works every time, but I sure am not ignoring this as one of the many things I am looking at.
Listen, some people in here also 'trade' their retirement accounts for position. They have been long this whole run up. They are looking to get out at some point, and go to cash. Some in here position trade for long runs, as well as intraday trade. I know of at least one fund manager in here who focuses on longer-term trades.
If you are only an intraday trader, then ignore this if you want. But I am trying to cater to many different styles of trading in here. So, here's something for some of my readers to study and see if there is anything there of use to them. Please, no one comment on how this doesn't matter for their intraday trades, we know that, that's obvious...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I stand corrected, but I'll call this 'an exception' that is so unusual it can be excluded from the concept. The day after the 'flash crash' we did have a Dow day up over 300+.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Jeez, got to do all my own fact checking. If one relies on other's posted 'facts' one can post things that aren't always factually correct. When the bull started there were also two 300+ up days right off the bat, on March 10th and 23rd. Then they stopped (if my own fact checking and data is correct, everyone needs to do their own due diligence). It doesn't change to point, but to be factually correct, it should be pointed out. Everything interpreted in 'context'. I guess it can still do them as it shakes off the last remnants of a big bear, or under exception circumstances like a huge flash crash. Or, you can choose to think it all means nothing...
FI
fib21
Rep: 0
Posts: 40
I think that's a very valuable observation Jim and one that let's us know that the charactor of the market has changed. And whether you are a short term or long term trader it's something to look at.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
My point exactly. Just one of many things I like to look at, study, and ponder over. Maybe I just think a lot because I like to think, but as long as I feel it helps my style of trading, I'm going to keep doing it. Besides, I have goals in my trading that go beyond just making money. I want to have fun, learn and grow, and push my brain. I spend almost every minute of my life in front of this computer (due to various reasons that's something I have little choice about), and I want intellectual stimulation.
For me, making money is something, I believe, happens when one does something well. So, I trade for stimulation, to develop myself, to learn and grow, to keep busy, to meet personal goals, and so on. Then, if I do it well, I'll make money. If I don't do it well and don't make money, I'll do something else to make money and keep trading, for the above reasons.
So, if I make it totally mindless, my brain would turn to mush, I'd perhaps not be working towards personal goals, and I'd not be having fun thinking, which, for a person in my position, is about the most enjoyable thing I can do right now. Hence, I will always gravitate towards a trading style the requires me to think. I am in this for much, much more than money-making potential.
Unless I remember wrong or misinterpreted roofer's comments, he is in this solely for the money, and I think I recall him saying he likes roofing, trading not so much, but the trading money is just so outrageous he can not not do it (by this I don't mean he needs the money, I mean it's just too lucrative to pass up). He's not after thinking and intellectual stimulation, it's purely 'Show me the money, honey'.
As Ed Seykota said "Everyone gets out of the market exactly what they want". It's just that many don't know what their subconscious mind really wants until they start trading... Now, let me hope that roofer doesn't blast my possibly very incorrect paraphrasing of what I recall...
For me, making money is something, I believe, happens when one does something well. So, I trade for stimulation, to develop myself, to learn and grow, to keep busy, to meet personal goals, and so on. Then, if I do it well, I'll make money. If I don't do it well and don't make money, I'll do something else to make money and keep trading, for the above reasons.
So, if I make it totally mindless, my brain would turn to mush, I'd perhaps not be working towards personal goals, and I'd not be having fun thinking, which, for a person in my position, is about the most enjoyable thing I can do right now. Hence, I will always gravitate towards a trading style the requires me to think. I am in this for much, much more than money-making potential.
Unless I remember wrong or misinterpreted roofer's comments, he is in this solely for the money, and I think I recall him saying he likes roofing, trading not so much, but the trading money is just so outrageous he can not not do it (by this I don't mean he needs the money, I mean it's just too lucrative to pass up). He's not after thinking and intellectual stimulation, it's purely 'Show me the money, honey'.
As Ed Seykota said "Everyone gets out of the market exactly what they want". It's just that many don't know what their subconscious mind really wants until they start trading... Now, let me hope that roofer doesn't blast my possibly very incorrect paraphrasing of what I recall...
AL
albert
Rep: 99
Posts: 3,094
Kane 4PCP completing at 0.300 fibo. Several pushes into GZ, final break thru to other side. Good Support for thrust thru GZ, along with a Trader's Dream. I am still looking for my "edge." Trading SPY seems relatively easy for me lately. Not bragging, just enjoying trading.
Good Treading,
Al Kamego
Good Treading,
Al Kamego
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
So, it goes up to 60.75, with a flat ABCD along the way, and that high was within one tick of the 1.272 ext ret. That's 9.25 ES points, on a very small intraday trade setup. One little leg of the bigger intraday trend. If that's not enough for a kick butt intraday 'scalp' trade, I don't know what is. This is my bread and butter type of move. Yes, I am trying to position, too, for catching a big chunk of the bigger move, intraday and even as a swing trade, but in the meantime, these kinds of moves are what I hunt the most for. Just some thoughts for you 'scalp trading' intraday traders. And if you aren't a scalp trading intraday trader, I know, I know...
Originally posted by jimkane
Hits 51.50, and up like a shot. What a shocker. Given it chopped sideways for so long and my line is rising, it was just about perfect. I think I'll do a roofer post:
I. AM. TIRED. OF. POSTING. THIS. STUFF.
Originally posted by jimkane
That may be the entire checkback there, but 49.50-51.00 would be nice.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, not trying to be overly critical, just making sure I understand what you are saying.
Originally posted by MarcinO
Of course I meant KZ. I'm sorry if I confused anybody.
I'm quite bussy at work nowadays and I can hardly post charts, which resulted in an obvious mistake.
Originally posted by jimkane
Marcin, do you mean KZ?
Originally posted by MarcinO
Gold stucked a bit in the GZ reacting off upper //


