Getting us started. This should be quite a week.

So, is that 'W5' with a 5-wave in 'W5', to honor the higher timeframe level? It could be. But I just can't be bearish higher timeframe until I see it moving down. Yes, the bearish sentiment is at an extreme low. Yes, the first reaction off a FED meeting can frequently be the 'wrong' one. Yes, this may be a perfect blowoff frenzy setup, right into the most key area mentioned from way back. Yes, it could all be.

And overbought can also get more overbought, and even more from there. This may not stop until we are well into new all-time high territory. The manipulation game is in full speed, ramping up to new levels, and they basically said today it's going to go on indefinitely. Translated, I read that as the market goes up until it implodes. That may be years and years off. The DOW may be at 40K, or 50K, or even 100K by that time. Like I said all along... Just some thoughts.

Gold is just relentless. Up around 60 since the announcement. I think this is a genuine upside breakout. If so, we may be over 2,000 soon...

Do you consider sucha a breakout as s trade premise, given no key areas close to current price level?

Originally posted by jimkane

Gold is just relentless. Up around 60 since the announcement. I think this is a genuine upside breakout. If so, we may be over 2,000 soon...

Wow, ES deep, deep into the last level, and then it's 'upside breakout' territory. Into the close. At the end of a FED day. It's all set up for some downside. Will we see it? No justice for the piggies, ever, it seems...

No, I don't trade breakouts pretty much at all. But, if this does start a bigger move (I mean if I think it has started one) then I work up areas overhead, and look for setups in that direction that have room to run i.e. the setup can make its move before hitting any of the overhead areas.

Originally posted by MarcinO

Do you consider sucha a breakout as s trade premise, given no key areas close to current price level?

Originally posted by jimkane

Gold is just relentless. Up around 60 since the announcement. I think this is a genuine upside breakout. If so, we may be over 2,000 soon...

Thank you Jim.

Originally posted by jimkane

No, I don't trade breakouts pretty much at all. But, if this does start a bigger move (I mean if I think it has started one) then I work up areas overhead, and look for setups in that direction that have room to run i.e. the setup can make its move before hitting any of the overhead areas.

Originally posted by MarcinO

Do you consider sucha a breakout as s trade premise, given no key areas close to current price level?

Originally posted by jimkane

Gold is just relentless. Up around 60 since the announcement. I think this is a genuine upside breakout. If so, we may be over 2,000 soon...

So, another nice initial reaction off this key area, just like before. And just like before it is likely a sucker trap. They try to get me in, I get all 'happy' as it starts out nicely, then they crush my dreams. I can hear them cheering 'No justice for the piggies. Ever!' as they force me to stop out, usually near break even... Piggies.

Yes, I do have a strong long-side bias on the upmoves to the key areas, so I can't really complain in any way, shape or form about the tradeability of a day like today (I rate it essentially a 10 out of 10), but I don't like the thought of holding my nose while I trade. I like more balance, and I like to see the piggies get whacked here and there. Funny thing for a trend trader to say. I just hate all the manipulation...

Okay, I'm fried from all this relentless concentration so likely I'm done posting until later today if I see anything, or tomorrow.

Tweet from Bill Gross today:

Gross: Fed likely on hold for at least next 3 years. QE 2.5 today, QE 3, 4, 5, … lie ahead. Financial repression.

https://twitter.com/#!/PIMCO/status/162253293706428416

rat, I'm not sure if I defined them in here or not, but the terms I use are in the AFTC book. I follow Miner's convention. I don't use 'extension' as a term at all. We all know what retracements are. 'Internal' means less than 100%, 'external' means greater than 100%. A price projection uses three points, like A, B, and C of an ABCD. It takes the move from points 1 and 2 and multiplies that by a Fib ratio and adds it to point 3, to get point 4. I also use expansion, which is a two point tool, and starts out like a price projection, using points 1 and 2, but after doing the ratio it adds it to point 2 instead of point 3. This is clearly explained in AFTC, with diagrams, so I refer you back to that book.

Originally posted by rat89

Jim, you once clarified the difference between projection and extension here....I can't find it, and I get mixed up in terms....could you point me to it again?