Getting us started. This should be quite a week.

Originally posted by jimkane

Can anyone show, in the ES all-sessions, why the HOD this AM was the high I was looking for to the tick. One line only. No Fibs. No sets. I don't mean I didn't do a full workup, only that the line was the guide for the high, and it hit it to the tick.

Let's give it a try
Is it this one?

we seem to have the same one....hope it's the one

Originally posted by MarcinO

Originally posted by jimkane

Can anyone show, in the ES all-sessions, why the HOD this AM was the high I was looking for to the tick. One line only. No Fibs. No sets. I don't mean I didn't do a full workup, only that the line was the guide for the high, and it hit it to the tick.

Let's give it a try
Is it this one?

Click image for original size

I was thinking more short-term. The lines you guy's have are the critical ones for the big picture, hitting together with this. Make sure you scroll back or click on the chart and look at it in another window.




And it can be taken back even further:




So, what was I thinking at today's high?


Charts created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal

It looks this line is from ML.

Did you think that today's high was end of W5 (1.618) ?

Originally posted by jimkane

So, what was I thinking at today's high?

Honestly, I have no idea. There is a lot up there (a lot), the sentiment is right for a pullback, and I did see a change in character today that I haven't seen in a long time. So, it may have more downside. But that's about all I can say. I just look for setups, I don't try to predict much. I don't find it that necessary for trading, in my opinion.

So according to your methodology, should we looking for setups in direction up until we see bearish W2 after such selloff like yesterday ?

I wish the answer to that question was that easy, but it's quite complex. The simple answer is I lean on a trend until it breaks. But, that being said, when it is extended (or 'overextended') I don't feel as aggressive in leaning on it. The odds of it continuing are dropping. It's all really a matter of 'context' and what my overall assessment of the situation is. It's hard to describe in a few words the difference between 'predicting' and 'calculating the odds' of various potential scenarios. It's totally different, but hard to explain. I'll try to think on this some more and if I can think of a way to word it I'll post it.

Thank you, Jim. It sometimes looks it's imposible to learn it .

Jim, you once clarified the difference between projection and extension here....I can't find it, and I get mixed up in terms....could you point me to it again?

rat, I'm not sure if I defined them in here or not, but the terms I use are in the AFTC book. I follow Miner's convention. I don't use 'extension' as a term at all. We all know what retracements are. 'Internal' means less than 100%, 'external' means greater than 100%. A price projection uses three points, like A, B, and C of an ABCD. It takes the move from points 1 and 2 and multiplies that by a Fib ratio and adds it to point 3, to get point 4. I also use expansion, which is a two point tool, and starts out like a price projection, using points 1 and 2, but after doing the ratio it adds it to point 2 instead of point 3. This is clearly explained in AFTC, with diagrams, so I refer you back to that book.

Originally posted by rat89

Jim, you once clarified the difference between projection and extension here....I can't find it, and I get mixed up in terms....could you point me to it again?