The best area I have now is from let's say 1370-80, coming together this week. For a pattern the size of this, that is as narrow as I can get it. It then becomes about triggers and price action. But, recall my quote about trading bearish 'W2's' unless the start of 'W1' is clearly a PTA or end of the bull market ([url="http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/4568/5/cant-miss-quotes#96489"/]click here for quote[/url]).
Although I'd love that March high to have been the end of the bull market, or even the start of a bigger correction, that is not a given at this point, and pretty much consensus is new bull market highs are coming, and coming soon. Normally I'd say from a contrarian standpoint that implies it will be headed right down, but those bulls sure seem to have it nailed dead on right now, so probably they'll be right about new bull market highs. After all, they are spot on for this move, right?
JI
jimkane
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For all those 'bulls' out there. Just something to think about. It may not stop this ramp we are seeing right now, but if ever there was a BS ramp and a BS market, this is it...
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-30/devalue-euro
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-30/devalue-euro
JI
jimkane
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BTW, I have said for years and years I think the Euro is, at best, fairly valued at parity, probably just a tad less. The above 'solution' puts it right at parity. But, alas, as great a solution as that is, I think, a 'weak' Euro means a strong dollar, and all that means a market way, way lower. Shouldn't the market move down 20% in one shot to keep everything balanced?
But we will never have a strong dollar, since it's the multi-nationals that run this country, and they want a weak dollar. End of story. Understand, whenever money is being made, always ask where it comes from. It has to come from somewhere. This is one of the best things I have ever discovered, ask: Where is the money coming from? Recall the housing market, and everyone was a flipper and everyone was getting 'rich'? Where was the money coming from?
Unless it is a true increase in productivity, we better get an answer to that question, or we are headed for trouble. And trouble was what we got. Where do all the huge, huge profits for the multi-nationionals come from? From a competitive advantage from a weak currency (on a relative basis compared to other currencies). Competitive devaluation, the race, against other currencies, to the bottom. Same old, same old. But this is not an increase in productivity.
So, where does the money come from? From you and I, from the middle class. Weak currency means way higher prices for oil, for food, for health care, for goods and services, etc. (as well as less (or nothing) earned on our savings). We pay more for everything. That's where the money comes from for the multi-nationals. We subsidize them.
Just like where is all the money coming from that the banks are getting from all the money printing that is allowing them record profits and record bonuses in a depression? Printing devalues our dollars, so we lose out to inflation (we get less for the same dollar), and we get little or nothing on our savings. All that difference is the bank's 'profits'. They aren't offering valid and valued services, or increasing productivity. Where does the money come from? Now you know. Always ask: Where does the money come from?
But we will never have a strong dollar, since it's the multi-nationals that run this country, and they want a weak dollar. End of story. Understand, whenever money is being made, always ask where it comes from. It has to come from somewhere. This is one of the best things I have ever discovered, ask: Where is the money coming from? Recall the housing market, and everyone was a flipper and everyone was getting 'rich'? Where was the money coming from?
Unless it is a true increase in productivity, we better get an answer to that question, or we are headed for trouble. And trouble was what we got. Where do all the huge, huge profits for the multi-nationionals come from? From a competitive advantage from a weak currency (on a relative basis compared to other currencies). Competitive devaluation, the race, against other currencies, to the bottom. Same old, same old. But this is not an increase in productivity.
So, where does the money come from? From you and I, from the middle class. Weak currency means way higher prices for oil, for food, for health care, for goods and services, etc. (as well as less (or nothing) earned on our savings). We pay more for everything. That's where the money comes from for the multi-nationals. We subsidize them.
Just like where is all the money coming from that the banks are getting from all the money printing that is allowing them record profits and record bonuses in a depression? Printing devalues our dollars, so we lose out to inflation (we get less for the same dollar), and we get little or nothing on our savings. All that difference is the bank's 'profits'. They aren't offering valid and valued services, or increasing productivity. Where does the money come from? Now you know. Always ask: Where does the money come from?
JI
jimkane
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Early indications from the spot FX market are for a slight up opening. It's still early, though, so things may change before the ES open. How this thing can open up at all, after a run like that, is beyond me, but it is what it is.
JI
jimkane
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Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
JI
jimkane
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It's a slow grind, but there's the new high for the move. Let's see if it can sustain at all. We know it wants that 70-80 area. To me it's just a matter of when they make their move.
RA
rat89
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so many things could happen but there is a very interesting path to a new high in the 143.40 - 145.53 range even with another sharp move down.... just thinking out loud...and of course IF it goes there in time, everyone will be 100% bullish
Click image for original size
JI
jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
Hmmmm, can't say I don't like this action. Another repeat of the Sunday sell? I think I saw a ZH article about how the average up before a reversal for this type of nonsense bailout news pump is about two days. Although 70-80 would be a better sell zone, you never know. I think the best case scenario is a sell here to an obvious area, then a blast up to 70-80, then 'W3' down, hard, destroying the 'bulls'. But, if this is it, I can live with that.