The best area I have now is from let's say 1370-80, coming together this week. For a pattern the size of this, that is as narrow as I can get it. It then becomes about triggers and price action. But, recall my quote about trading bearish 'W2's' unless the start of 'W1' is clearly a PTA or end of the bull market ([url="http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/4568/5/cant-miss-quotes#96489"/]click here for quote[/url]).

Although I'd love that March high to have been the end of the bull market, or even the start of a bigger correction, that is not a given at this point, and pretty much consensus is new bull market highs are coming, and coming soon. Normally I'd say from a contrarian standpoint that implies it will be headed right down, but those bulls sure seem to have it nailed dead on right now, so probably they'll be right about new bull market highs. After all, they are spot on for this move, right?

I rather suspect it will just chop in here with a slight upward bias, and that's it. But you never know.

Yep, just like I said. This sets it up perfectly for a gap and go on Sunday. Barring news I'd say the odds are 99.9999% (not an actual stat, just Jim having fun) we get the gap Sunday. We'll see. Idiots...

4H chart works vary good in forks. we will wait to sunday.

And here is a possible explanation for why the market began to rise. Or should I say the technicals came together and then the news appears that will be responded to, to satisfy the technicals. Note the comments about Pavlovian dogs, posted well after my reference earlier in here. Is ZH reading our forum? Did a top ZH'er buy my books and get access? You never know...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-hilsenrath-rumor-save-day

SPY still rising. Sunday should be a big gap up, I think.

Posted-07/06/2012 : 14:26:41

Originally posted by jimkane

Watch this 42.25 as a possible low for today. I'm not saying it is going up, necessarily, although it is going into a Friday close, and you never know. I would not expect a ramp up, as this doesn't do that too often on a big kill day. It would more likely just grind around until the close, in my experience. But, based on the 'chart signature' that last push there may be it for today. We'll see.

P.S. I hope some big sellers come in and give it another big leg down and really kill 'em. Then my huge smile can become a record-setting Jim smile.

Actually, I'd really rather have them not kill it, as that may climax it and set it up for another ridiculous Sunday bounce. I want the downside to be slow, long, and very persistent.

And yes, I did not play up that I was fully expecting a run up, although that was a key area right there. It fit with the Friday ramp into close that it does so often, it just isn't as common on strong down days, so I was wary it may not happen. I felt (and still feel) 'chop at the low end of the range' is more common in these circumstances. So, although there was plenty of time to set up a long premise off the low as the evidence started to build, I was not that excited to consider taking it right off the low. Just so it doesn't appear as though I am only taking clips of my comments that look good and leaving others off.


Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal

Darn, Sunday at 3 PM is a long ways away...