The best area I have now is from let's say 1370-80, coming together this week. For a pattern the size of this, that is as narrow as I can get it. It then becomes about triggers and price action. But, recall my quote about trading bearish 'W2's' unless the start of 'W1' is clearly a PTA or end of the bull market ([url="http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/4568/5/cant-miss-quotes#96489"/]click here for quote[/url]).

Although I'd love that March high to have been the end of the bull market, or even the start of a bigger correction, that is not a given at this point, and pretty much consensus is new bull market highs are coming, and coming soon. Normally I'd say from a contrarian standpoint that implies it will be headed right down, but those bulls sure seem to have it nailed dead on right now, so probably they'll be right about new bull market highs. After all, they are spot on for this move, right?

Very cool and interesting charts, rat.

Al Kamego

Okay, now that this has reopened, let's see if it can get to the heart of the next area. I'm seeing 74.50-77.75 as the center, but there is a lot starting to come in around 71-73. Like I said before '70-80' really is it. It may be done already. If this area gives way, then the next level is around 95, plus or minus a fair margin. If it starts moving that way I'll try to post a refinement, but understand these levels are coming off the intermediate-term price action, and the width of the areas will be wider than a short-term, or very-short-term grouping. It does look like Carl Futia will nail this one dead on, though, as I suspect this now wants the new 'bull' market highs (It seems if you guess new 'bull' market highs over and over all the way down you'll eventually be right...).

Anyway, I'm still baffled as to how this relates to the election year politics, as it doesn't make sense. Oil is starting to rise sharply, and the market looks to be on a tear, maybe trying for new all-time highs by the election. Can they really gun this straight up for five months? No 'W3' down like I wanted so bad? Scare us all, and then O'Bummer rides to the rescue? I'm tired of trying to figure out the scenarios. Could they be gunning it now, and then drop into the election and seasonally weak time, with oil rocketing, and O'Bummer is out?

Recall that was the other scenario I mentioned. But it looked so 100% like O'Bummer was in for another four, I discarded that scenario. And would he really be out coming off new 'bull' or all-time highs, just because it was weak at that moment? Wouldn't it have to be a near collapse weak? And why would they have driven oil down so much if they intended to run it up into the election to get O'Bummer out? Maybe because they couldn't run it up from such a high? These are the questions I ponder all the time, hoping to get a handle on the answers, but always to no avail...

Coiling off this pullback to launch? Sure looks so.

There's the new high at 70, but without any fanfare or stop run action. It's just a slow grind. I wonder what will happen on the European open.

This thing needs to be careful in here. Very careful.

Like I said...

I'm watching 58.25-58.50 and 55.00, in the short-term. Then we'll see what it really intends.

Assuming, of course (this should go without saying), that it doesn't respond to the flat right here.

I don't know how many die hard traders are left in here today, but for me, a holiday, July 4th, whatever, there is nothing I'd rather be doing on that day than watching the market. Besides, it's only a holiday in the U.S., and probably more than half my readers are outside the U.S.

Anyway, watch the bullish ABCD (with an ABCD in its BC leg) in here at 62, in case this is where they come in. Otherwise, my levels posted before are still valid, 58.25-.50 and 54.50-55.00, center of areas. I'd think it would really want that 58 area, based on the layout. If the ABCD sends it to new highs for the move that would imply some serious strength to me. As I mentioned, since it hit 70 it is now entirely possible the upside move is over. I'm probably alone in even considering that, but it is a scenario I am ready for, in case it unfolds.

The more I look at this, the more it looks to me like this should have one more thrust up before it is done. I'm kinda hoping that it is done already, and I could see that fooling a lot of people, but it really has some spots overhead that it would 'normally' like to deal with before a key reversal like this one could be (the start of 'W3' and some serious, serious downside), in my experience. We shall see.

P.S. I'm not going to win any Pulitzer prizes for the wording of that post, eh?

P.P.S. And yes, I could be totally wrong-footed even looking for anything but new 'bull' market highs.

Darn, Sunday at 3 PM is a long ways away...