Okay, I'll get it started for this week. I'm expecting another fantastic week, as far as action.

Crude goes up about 5 in one day on zero news, and it's now up at new highs for the move in the aftermarket. I may (or may not) do a post on why I think oil is going to 250 (but perhaps just over 200...).

Hmmmm, I am reading this article that is about healthcare insurance. One guy in Seattle just found out his insurance will be going up from $842 a month to $2320 due to O'Bummercare. That's a 276% increase. Nah, no inflation. This is close to where I live. Here's a quote from the article:

"Various studies have projected that private insurance premiums will rise between 20 to 60% in 2014, and some as much as 100%."

But O'Bummer said one of the main points of his plan was that rates would go down. I trusted him. He's an honest guy who represents me, and would never lie. So, something must be wrong with what they told this guy in Seattle. They really won't be raising his rates that much, will they?

If anyone doesn't think the end is near, they need to up their coverage for mental health benefits, and then use them...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-01/guest-post-10-reasons-why-obamacare-going-ruin-your-medical-care-and-your-life

Now, the ideal place, from my technical perspective, for this to come back in a bit from is in the 1716-21 area, but perhaps as high as 29, especially if it took some time. Any substantial move above that area 'should' produce an upside acceleration, in my opinion. It could stop in that 1704-07 area from today, but probably not. With this being such a nominal new high, though, I'm not sure it even needs much of a correction. I would say I slightly favor the upside 'breakout', especially being a Friday, with Sunday night, Monday, and then 'Super Tuesday' coming up.

Hopefully tomorrow or over the weekend I'll do a chart workup showing my thinking on the end of this 'bull', the upcoming bear, the $250 oil 'prediction', and how it all fits together. It's not in any way a real 'prediction', just some technical areas that come together in a simply amazing way, and a 'feel' I am getting about oil and the comms, and how it could all fit together with the global collapse scenario.

Maybe it won't happen. But if not, it is still amazing what is happening technically, so that should be fun. Recall I posted a nice chart awhile back about if deflation took over what the S&P might do. Deflation was mightily 'defeated', and it didn't play out. Probably this workup won't either. But, on the other hand, it may. And if so, I want to have it on record, show it to people. So, look for it shortly.

I'll try to explain why this isn't 'predicting' when I do my post later. My scenario for the Trannies, the analog to the S&P, is for a move to 7200-7300, a pullback, then a finish at 7700 or slightly below. I can try to refine this if it starts to unfold. That's about a 15% move from here. If the ES makes 2000 (the second best case are those 1800's areas), that's about a 17% move from here. Overall, that would have the S&P up 40% on the year, and 45% on the Trannies. I think that's a very reasonable return, highly doable. Imagine the bulls if that happens, the talk!

They're back to kickin' the snot out of gold and silver again. This would play into my scenario, up with the markets until Jan, down with gold and silver to my lower areas in one more leg, then the markets crack, money flows into oil, comms, and PMs, and so on. What may happen after that, though, is what I think could be really 'interesting'.

Just waiting on the European open, then I'll quit. I'm wiped out like you can't imagine...

when i think things are tough, i reread this essay... i only know of it because i stumbled across it in a collection of 100 best essays of the 20th century and it came to mind again last night during a PBS special on japanese history leading up to war.

http://www.nytimes.com/1987/06/14/magazine/the-bloodiest-battle-of-all.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

when i first started roofing, the manufacturers had field LOCAL reps ... their job was to make you happy...EVERY PROBLEM WAS SOLVED... now they have 800 numbers and regional reps who if you scream long enough will respond.. but know this.. their year end bonus is solely dependent on how few claims make it through... THEY WILL SPEND ALL DAY LOOKING FOR ONE MISPLACED NAIL, THEN SAY THE JOB WAS IMPROPERLY INSTALLED, THEN WALK AWAY FROM THEIR WARRANTY.

thus it is with health care..obamacare is just a diversion.. the system is already broken... health insurance exists for one reason .. to make the rich richer while they look down and laugh at the muppet doctors and patients.as with the shingle reps, the claims adjusters bonus at the end of year is based on how few claims get paid... for a start, they routinely refuse claim multiple times hoping the doctor will just give up.. i know this from my daughter and my personal doctor of 30 years who is also a friend..

So much for that downtick in the PM's. They exploded today on the jobs report. The figure was low (we knew it would be because Bern-Qwacke had it for the meeting, and he didn't comment that there was an uptick in the economic outlook, therefore the report must be weak), hence more QE, and so up with the PM's. Silver did about a 5% pop in like a quarter of a second (I'm joking about the time, for effect).