ES Thursday 8-22-13

Magnet price for me today is 40.50 but I don't have a great read of the market yet...

I know that 44 and 46.25 are the first key numbers....I know we have a gap up of 8 points if we opened now...we also have the major resistance at 48.50...

see where your 1/4 and 1/2 gap numbers fall today ....for confluence

My plan is to see them get two points up and away from 44.25 to look for sells first...then use the 44 as a first magnet price..with 40.50 as the major magnet price..

we do not want to see them get above the 46 number and have that turn into support that will be bad for us short bias traders..we can sell the 48 number if it gets up there and us the 46 as a target too

if we open under 1644 I will sell a rally up to it knowing that the better sells are up at 46.25

I will watch 37.50 for possible support if it get s that low
...34.50 is another key number today too

my concern is that yesterday was just a big fake out

some will be using the 44 - 46 as a zone and a bull / bear "SWITCH" to provide them a bias...long above it and short below

Click image for original size
took a small short at the 45.25......better trades comes if / when we run out that On high and use the 44 as the first magnet...I'm very cautious today
I'm starting more aggressive shorts at 48 even...I do not have a great feel for this as everyone may be stuck short ..46 needs to be the target as that is one of our zones....the top of it

real cautious today !!!
I'm being aggressive on exits too...that 45.25 short took the loss at 46.50.....this is now the plus 4 but the stuck short concept is at play so far be wrong and take small losses

52 - 53 is another zone if we fail this one....

this 48 area is critical if we are gonna have a win fading this morning...!!
usually when they blow through a zone by two points or more they run out stops and come back for the that 46 area is a natural target...

so if they decide to trend it from here we will lose's really that simple !!
we have a potential triple top on 5 minute so manage closely and try again if revised target is 46.50 but that triple top is ugly at 49.50
the open and drive without much test down is another reason to be nimble on fades today...
report in 5 minutes..
flat at 48.50....will wait for report now
if the report is bad then I will try to trade for the 44 number eventually...I'd really like them to get rid of that triple high and then get back under 48 number post report ..
yep, tough fades today...tried 49.5 twice but no fill, now standing aside...above i have 54-56 and then up in the 59-61 range

below i have pretyy much same numbers as u bruce, taht onvpoc ti onh area is support now...40-41 below that...would be stunned if we got taht low given strength in internals and tick thus far...not a zero print in the tick yet !
trouble so far holding outside the IB high and our upper zone....meant to put that in last post !!