ES Thursday 2-27-14

some context first... a look at how this week is unfolding....basically same as context chart we have been using


next we look at Wednesday double distribution day.....note the two separate bell curves with an LVN in the middle at 1844.75...where is last weeks high ??? ok..u get it


still no test of last weeks close ..an 85 % probability...so that 44.75 becomes real important as we go into the last two days of trade

8:30 reports tomorrow morning so won't even attempt to formulate a plan yet until after those hit the market....

no test of overnight midpoint of On vpoc.......pointing it out for anyone still short..I'm gonna try again but I want to see what happens on a test of 43 again

very cool day...ackwired, u point out something very critical....we rallied 5 points up off the open into the LVn of a previous day and VPOC shifts to the highs...that can and often does imply that sellers are stepping up given the right context...it's not prefect but it can help...we are due to break the range of a previous day...another 85 % probability and it didn't happen yesterday...also no O/N range has been run..a 95 % probability...that 43 may hold the key now....us sellers don't want it back above there before the RTH low of yesterday gets run out.....that 40.25 may help us too....hard to hold in here..

Yelin speaks in 3 min

vpoc did not stay there long. flipped back to 41.

Thanks, Joe.

if 44.50 can hold then I will try one last time if we can get down to 40.50....otherwise I'm out of ideas to try and get YD lows..

so far we are spending most of our time in the lower portion of yesterday and in the lower bell ( distribution) ..so I am mentally building my case for the short side....may be a bad thing !!!

trying again from 41.50..don't want to see trade over 43.75 now

Yes. I noticed that too. And I confess I am looking for a downturn because of the declining volume on our rally from the lows.

taking something off at 39.75 and will try to hold runners from here

took last off at 48.25...made us work 15 minutes xtra today but it payed off........a great example of how probabilities can hurt and help in trading...for me they seem to hurt more than help ...like trying to get yesterdays lows...but we did use it to get the O/N high....so a mixed review of probabilities for me today