I will start this week with overview of the Euro.
1.2480 looks like a monster, but I assume it will produce only a temporary reaction after TL fakeout and then go up to KZ (1.2570-1.2600).


The weekly chart shows a great potential for games around 1.2.

Watch the ABCD. I now say 50/50 it's done already.

Lotsa nice charts today, crew.

My area started about 40, and reaches into the 50's, but timing-wise it's is right there right now, and has hit many of the key factors. It's either done, or one more small push away. Looking at rat's charts, it really can't push much more or they won't hold. Maybe they are just waiting on the Russell so they can dump. But, and here's the thing, this is a spectacular area, one I've waited for for quite awhile now, and I am getting the feeling this, too, will be relegated to the 'I'm so disappointed I can't stand it' pile. All those 'That should have ended the 'bull' market' areas that got smoked one after another. I feel like this one will likely be no different.

The interesting thing is I showed this work to a student over a week and a half ago, and I commented that I didn't understand why the timing for the area to be hit came in around now, so far out. I expected they'd just blast it right up into the election. Instead they did the machine grind, slow and steady on almost no volume, and it hit the timing factor just about dead on. That unto itself is amazing. In this 'bull' I have seen pretty much all these areas give way, a good percentage with no reaction (many, though, did produce excellent countertrend reactions once triggered). But, the interesting thing is how the market headed right to them, time and price, even if no reaction was produced, and so it was here, too.

My gut? 75/25 it does no substantial (higher timeframe) reaction off this monster primo area. That doesn't mean I won't be looking to position off it, given that I think there is potential, if the setup and trigger are right, even if the odds truly are only 25% it produces a substantial reaction. It's amazing what can be done with superb management (no claims about my management skills or any claims, I'm just saying, with excellent management skills a lot can be accomplished).

Originally posted by MarcinO

The ES is just shy off Jim's core area and fakeout of the red spike line would be a great end of the last month rally.

Click image for original size

That was a nice dump into the futures close, right into a bigger ABCD. This is going to get really interesting from here.

As an aside, and I guess this is no different than what we've heard for years and years now, I have not seen one single person call for any correction in here, no less 'the bear'. 100% of what I read out there is discussing higher targets. Not 99%, 100% (I don't read 'permabears').

Crude finally swooooshed later in the day today. This puts it below many countries critical level where they will freak out and start doing crazy stuff. Many places are supposedly below production cost now, and others below their ability to sustain their government, and so on. Talk is of vast production cuts (yeah, from places that can't sustain themselves right now, uh-huh...), and other radical reactions. Probably nothing happens, but I wanted to point out, this is not without broader significance. If the entire point is to put pressure on Russia, it may 'work'. But, I suspect, the reaction that was desired will not be the reaction 'we' get.

I won't add anything related to trading.
That's good that the world has tools to put pressure on aggressors like that instead of fighting fire with fire.

Originally posted by jimkane

Crude finally swooooshed later in the day today. This puts it below many countries critical level where they will freak out and start doing crazy stuff. Many places are supposedly below production cost now, and others below their ability to sustain their government, and so on. Talk is of vast production cuts (yeah, from places that can't sustain themselves right now, uh-huh...), and other radical reactions. Probably nothing happens, but I wanted to point out, this is not without broader significance. If the entire point is to put pressure on Russia, it may 'work'. But, I suspect, the reaction that was desired will not be the reaction 'we' get.

Let me put this out there, since it is actually something I've been watching for awhile myself, but I haven't mentioned it. I have an area in crude around 57-60, and the timing factor is like 'very soon'. This would indicate a massive plunge in here, at the same rate of drop we have seen since June, perhaps even faster, like October. I will point out that 69-70 is also a monster area (just not as nice the the lower area), and may be it, if it even gets there.

I've also seen something I never thought I'd ever see again (so I lost a nickel bet to myself), and that's XRB with a '1' handle. Granted just barely, but a '1' handle nonetheless. Look at XRB F5.

Airlines up 45% in the last three weeks? WTF. Yeah, I know, crude is down, but still, where does the money come from?

Here's the ES game. It's all games, but this is the 'stop run' game, a variation on what I coined long ago, the '1-2-tick game'.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-14/stop-hunting-algos-dominate-sp-500-today