ES 5-19-17

Numbers and zones I'm looking at...going easy today, it's friday and prefer to see some mean reversion down from the 69 - 70 area to try and get to 65.50...will be watching breakout up in case they need to put in more tpo's at that weekly i will be watching Volume/Ticks closely if we come out of YD's highs

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a quick look at the weekly

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how the options market is pricing moves today

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the only good thing is that volume seems to have dried up are some comments on why I added in the third time to this campaign....which isn't working so far...also gaps and my special "secret" chart ...LOL
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did you take off any contract(s) when ES went down to 78.75?

Originally posted by BruceM

average in price for me is now 80.25 with this new probe up....
YM has been one-time framing up.
this lack of volume has kept me in but he 11:30 close will be key for me...ideally want to see a low close and then see them start breaking the one time framing up...overtime days are no good...! but will if we hit the current vpoc now at 79.50 just to lighten this up if I can then try to go for that gap.....that weekly low is a killer today...I'm wondering if short term options traders are trying to sell this to get it back under the one standard deviation move
vpoc just moved up 2 points on my TOS data so if we are to roll over this would be a good time
I took the loss at 82,75 on all.....I will try once more......I'm keeping in mind that a gap in data is my least favorite probability...I'd like to to get something going in 84 -86 and then target 81.50.....interesting formation.......that break of one time framing that brought in buyers was my clue to pull the plug on this..
market has made the "P" formation but the big deal is that the bulk of the body is above that low of the weekly I've been babbling here I am again in at 84.25 with plan to add into 86.75 if needed
revising first target to 82
scratched at 84.75...I will need them to do one of two things now to allow me to try one more short ....POP up into the 86.50 - 87.75 ( an old poc) and get short to go get singles at 83.75 concern and reason for covering is that they might just blow through the 86.50 - 87.75 and I don't want to be short if that happens over lunch....I will trade for the retest back down if they blow through that zone though...nothing will be taken unless I see a dry up in price or slow down from time and sales
I couldn't agree more ( not the "I'm the dumbest person I know" part) that 99 % of the time it is just better to take the loss, clear your head and try again....
Originally posted by nolt

Interesting to see your gap in data thing Bruce, thanks for sharing.
The whole averaging in thing is hard to watch for me based on personal experience. Not judging those who do it at all!! (I'm the dumbest person I know, trust me) But when I have done it in the past with very defined areas to get in, it would end up being a trend day and massive pain would occur, my account just couldn't take the beating. So now I just take my lumps and look for the next trade...and today I just shut it down because the lumps were to large and to frequent. Hate going into the weekend, as if I just spent a night in prison.
Good weekend to all!!

Thanks again Bruce for sharing your thoughts and making the vids!!