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ES Friday 7-14-17


This market may rally to the moon but I am not comfortable with long side trades , 46 - 48.50 is still key zone as per video and then that all time high up at 51 area...If short near the 48 area then I would use 45.25 - 46 as a first target....video goes over more....failure to cover calls Yd has made them go negative on me but I have a week to expiration....structure seems weak to me and does not seem to be attracting strong buying up here ...so even though they may push the new highs I am suspicious of this.....today is last day that we can get the weekly retest probability and it seems that will fail us this week...here is how I see the rest
No video below? Try this link: Friday.swf









EDIT: Forgot to mention that volume on Thursday was less than Wednesday
some ramble and why I think current high and low are very poor in structure
No video below? Try this link: some_ramble.swf






the previous all time high is also a weekly high so I would expect a retest of 51.50 if our probabilities of having multiple tpo's trade at previous weeks highs is going to work this afternoon........so that will be a good target if u can find a low risk short over lunch or even later in the day...we also have single prints now at the same area on the daily...I will try from 54.75 - 56 area myself but not gonna be a knucklehead about it...a quick FYI : 87 % of my final runner contracts did NOT achieve their target this week....that is very high failure rate !!
anything over 56 may bring in the 2 times the IB sellers ....6 points IB added to IB high gets us to 56....I'm waiting for some kind of signal like a mini 1-2-3 or maybe another dry up in volume...3 sets of single prints on the charts now ( one of these is just a potential single at 55.75)! These late friday trades need to all be small as you don't want to go the weekend as a net loser on the day and get caught in any kind of flush UP....best to just keep it small and take multiple tries....even better would be to just wait until singles at 55.75 get filled in and see what happens...if price doesn't drop back to that then u are sidelined anyway
I can't find any way to play this so I just sold calls...terrible structure on the charts and they are working on 4 sets of single prints......these I will carry over the weekend unless the infamous PAUL9 from long ago steps into the market and starts selling this late on a friday
Click image for original size
soldcalls
r u kidding me ? R3 was 59.75 today...I mean really......what kind of big traders are in the market if they can sell it off from a floor trader number like that....I have 56 and that 51.50 as key numbers coming into monday unless some wierd happens in the next 7 minutes
I think we should be good for a 51.50 retest early next week. ( we were cheated on that weekly retest due to the fact that it happened so late in the week)..lots of low $Ticks on the close and the Vix didn't make a new low as spx made new highs...implies traders may still be fearful of the new highs...I know I am....but the safer bet was to sell the calls...I tried to cover and buy them back at .39 but was not filled at the close today
and when is it gonna stop raining in VT ?? Didn't really want to be trading on a friday late......where the hell is summer.......Long Island had lots of beaches !! ..ah youth...it really is wasted on the young !!
have fun with this one

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