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ES Thursday 8-17-17


key area will be 59 - 60 and then 65- 66 on upside...further below will be breakout point of 55.75 and weekly low near 53.75...so that is a zone....I plan on covering calls sold on open as time has eaten away at the price and hoping to have a profit on those. I do not plan to wait until or if we trade 4 points below the weekly open


here are the lines....yesterdays low time, va low and overnight POC is at the 65 area
Click image for original size
overnight
this is wrong......we didn't hit the 40 points off last weeks close.......this sums it up...lol

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=airplane+loyd+bridges+video&view=detail&mid=6ECA798F828A50A77BAC6ECA798F828A50A77BAC&FORM=VIRE
.
Originally posted by BruceM

The spx closed almost exactly at the 40 point expected move for the week....it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow but for me it will be after the fact as I am taking a day off
this is interesting because the TOS expected move for one week was 30 points starting today so I had 7.5 points as 1/4 SD and used the closing price of yesterday...so I sold my calls when spx hit 2460.5 which happened in the first 5 minutes...this is a full 10 points before the Bittman opening refinement........I'm not saying one is better or worse but it will be interesting to follow as we go forward
Originally posted by Big Mike

For the Bittman I used today's SPX open and yesterday's VIX closing price. My levesl were + 1/4 SD=2475; +1/2 SD= 2487; -1/4SD = 2451 and -1/2 SD = 2439. I use the formula Bittman provided.

I had a similar trade as you from like 95 cents credit down to 20 cents, almost identical to last week.

I do not make any adjustments, I take them off if it comes back to +1/4 SD . No Bittman targets are provided, he let's them expire or hit 1/4 SD against him. Sometimes those are actually profitable given the theta decay. I take them off early if they run like this and last Thursday did. I try not to be greedy.

The better trades IMO (although I take them all) is when SPX runs up first and you sell puts. Puts are a little richer usually and when price runs up vol contracts and you get even more favorable pricing to buy them back,
Originally posted by BruceM
...

I traded the two step today and had a $90 credit but messed up and went 5 pts wide in spx instead of 10...anyway I took profits when they were trading at $45.......I was actually hoping to have the trade go against me so I could practice with the butterfly adjustment he suggests but deep down I'm real happy the profits came quick......does he ever mention using a profit target ? Perhaps the two step should be in it's own thread....I was using 30 points as a one SD move...what did u use to calculate your one sd move ? I just used what was posted by TOS at last nights close


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I believe the discrepancy is that the TOS numbers you are using are calculated using the Implied Volatilty for that particular option chain and is different than the VIX price.
Originally posted by BruceM

this is interesting because the TOS expected move for one week was 30 points starting today so I had 7.5 points as 1/4 SD and used the closing price of yesterday...so I sold my calls when spx hit 2460.5 which happened in the first 5 minutes...this is a full 10 points before the Bittman opening refinement........I'm not saying one is better or worse but it will be interesting to follow as we go forward
Originally posted by Big Mike

For the Bittman I used today's SPX open and yesterday's VIX closing price. My levesl were + 1/4 SD=2475; +1/2 SD= 2487; -1/4SD = 2451 and -1/2 SD = 2439. I use the formula Bittman provided.

I had a similar trade as you from like 95 cents credit down to 20 cents, almost identical to last week.

I do not make any adjustments, I take them off if it comes back to +1/4 SD . No Bittman targets are provided, he let's them expire or hit 1/4 SD against him. Sometimes those are actually profitable given the theta decay. I take them off early if they run like this and last Thursday did. I try not to be greedy.

The better trades IMO (although I take them all) is when SPX runs up first and you sell puts. Puts are a little richer usually and when price runs up vol contracts and you get even more favorable pricing to buy them back,
Originally posted by BruceM
...

I traded the two step today and had a $90 credit but messed up and went 5 pts wide in spx instead of 10...anyway I took profits when they were trading at $45.......I was actually hoping to have the trade go against me so I could practice with the butterfly adjustment he suggests but deep down I'm real happy the profits came quick......does he ever mention using a profit target ? Perhaps the two step should be in it's own thread....I was using 30 points as a one SD move...what did u use to calculate your one sd move ? I just used what was posted by TOS at last nights close



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