I thought I'd create a new topic and try something out and see if it seems beneficial to everyone. I'll try to post every day or so the times that setups completed that I thought were good based on the methodology. I will only do posts for times for 3-minute or higher timeframe setups. If the setup is on a 1-min or 2-min but could be used as an entry setup for a higher timeframe bias I may mention those, too.

The idea here is to point out the completion points for setups I thought were acceptable so everyone can make sure they see the setup, and go back and do the work, perhaps working through how they might have entered, managed, and so on. Mostly, though, it is to give everyone a chance to see the places I thought were the best setups on a given day based on my application of the methodology. Some will not have 'played out', but were still worth looking at.

One more point. These are not necessarily going to be areas I traded off of, they are going to be areas I thought were good enough to be looking at. I am not implying I traded them. I may have, or may not have, but that will be independent of whether I list them here. I want to give everyone a chance to 'start to see' the areas I think are the ones that best fit the methodology.

Most of these will be ABCD's, even though I will sometimes find areas that have enough for me to consider them without the ABCD. As I generally say to my students 'The ABCD is the 'hub of the wheel', the center point of where I start.' I suggest until one has the methodology down cold, start everything with the ABCD. I may, though, throw in a few setup times where other factors contribute to the area (like POC, pivots, GLOBEX points, and so on) such that some of the usual KT factors may be less.

As you will soon see, the posts will be in a format something like this, of course subject to any improvements I discover as I try this:

March XX, 2009

10:34 AM EXP ABCD, 3-min

Any thoughts or suggestions welcome.

One key thing for me today as watching the 796-800 area. Knowing the sentiment at the time and the fact that this was so bullish, I saw a couple of entry triggers that I would find acceptable by normal standards, but at certain times a lot more confirmation is required and sometimes this comes at the expense of a larger stop. Just my take.

Yes, that's exactly the point. There were certainly triggers there, fine ones, but nothing like I would need based on setup size and the way it was acting. Adjusting the trigger to an appropriate choice for each specific situation is a big part of moving to the next level with the methodology, in my opinon. That's a part of my struggle with BBJ's request. I probably could just say what level the trigger I chose at that moment was or might have been, but what I chose, and why, is a bit more complex, and if I had to explain that in each case it would take me a long time, and I'd forever be answering questions on why I chose what I chose. Hence, the dilemma.

Also, notice the similarity in what happened off the two key areas, the one you mentioned, and the day's high one. They both came off, went up in small ABCD's that triggered nicely, and look at the difference in the outcomes. Notice also some key differences. Look at price action as the highs were approached. The first one was choppy with multiple close highs. The second was more thrusting up impulsively, in a climaxing move (hmmm, most people are scared of that...). And notice the perfect set line for the high of the day setup, but the struggle to find a good line for the first area. Clues. And certainly one could have taken that first ABCD short trigger, and watched the long area mentioned in my notes, and then just got over to the long side when that triggered, or abandoned the short at that point. That wouldn't have been an unacceptable premise, it just wasn't the one I liked best of the choices at hand.

This is also the tough part about trading. To be able to make decisions that are based on experience. Jim has laid out a framework for a lot of us in here, but there are some things that no one can teach. Things that you can only gain by experience. I view myself as having very limited experience, but there are things that I understand and see now that would have passed me by last year. It's a struggle to learn, not to make mistakes and to be consistent and then comes the mental game and yet I (we) have the great advantage of a real teacher and being able to get feedback.

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane


Also, notice the similarity in what happened off the two key areas, the one you mentioned, and the day's high one. They both came off, went up in small ABCD's that triggered nicely, and look at the difference in the outcomes. Notice also some key differences. Look at price action as the highs were approached. The first one was choppy with multiple close highs. The second was more thrusting up impulsively, in a climaxing move (hmmm, most people are scared of that...). And notice the perfect set line for the high of the day setup, but the struggle to find a good line for the first area. Clues. And certainly one could have taken that first ABCD short trigger, and watched the long area mentioned in my notes, and then just got over to the long side when that triggered, or abandoned the short at that point. That wouldn't have been an unacceptable premise, it just wasn't the one I liked best of the choices at hand.

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I also found it interesting how this trendline (spikeline) came in at HOD connecting 3/20-3/30-today
And here is another point and I am not sure if it's relevant, but I have been looking at this for some time now.
A 1.128 retracement from the 3/19 high to the 3/20 low comes in right at today's high.
Sure lots of retracements can be drawn from anywhere, but it's something I noticed, because I was looking at the congestion to the left of that the 800 area at the time. I tend to view that as a good thing in case of a short (and I will be happy if someone told me otherwise), because it will take a lot more for price to get over that and sometimes they run it up above (below) to take out stops before turning around, hence I was looking at that 1.128.
I guess my point is that I have seen old fibs that I left on and seem not related to current price action continue to work as support or resistance. Just a thought.

Jim, I understand. Mentioning entry triggers from time to time if you recall them, would be a plus.

4/1/09

9:35 L: Globex low, .886 gap day, right back at uptrending set lower // for entire move up. This area created the bias for the entire day.

10:05-07 L: Small (very small) TD ABCD

10:31-34 L: Small .618 ABCD (Boy, do they want it)

11:15 L: 1-min ABCD (DT with this as CD leg?, 1.618 to the tick)

11:53 L: 1-min TD ABCD

13:11 L: This one is a bit tricky, and not 'textbook'. There is a set based on say a 3-min all-sessions (GLOBEX included on QCharts) at a .300 off the LOD, and I noticed it was a 1.000 price projection (hit to the tick) with a small ABCD in the center of the projection. The .564 and .685 off the two previous setups also hit dead in there (and the .382 off the B point of the little TD). I don't call it an ABCD because it isn't, but it did have symmetry coming into the area. This is a great example of something that had plenty for me (super tight Fibs were nice), but wasn't a clear ABCD. The upward bias was the basis for this setup.

13:50-51 L: Small EXP ABCD

15:15 L: This is based on a new unreleased pattern which hit at a .382. It also had a clean GLOBEX set, and three division line sets all hitting the area. The three division lines thing was pretty cool.

On a strong trend bias day I just try to look for anything decent to get on the trend, if I'm not in the 'ride until close' mode. What was the primary clue (other than multiple overnight tests of the low GLOBEX area and Asia being way up) that this may be a trend day? Do the first little bearish ABCD, it hits at 784.75, right at report time. It just smoked that and went all impulsive. KIG (Kiss It Goodbye).

Today I threw in a lot of too small to normally trade ABCD's because they are great on trend days if I'm not in already. Also, what about that nice ABCD at 14:45-47? It was a nice pattern, but this was getting pretty far along (up 30 at that high from the low) for such a small correction. Look at the last correction after a solid new high. It needed more.

Okay, see what is happening? What was supposed to be a quick post of the 3-5 best setups of the day is now getting extensive, and taking me a long time. Got to get back to the quick list...

so I gather you didn't take the re-rest the line Wave 2 TD short at 14:53. It reminded me a bit of yesterday.
A lucky shot against the bull.

quote:

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Originally posted by mreiserer

so I gather you didn't take the re-rest the line Wave 2 TD short at 14:53. It reminded me a bit of yesterday.
A lucky shot against the bull.

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Not even with your money. Actually, it was a fair setup if one wanted to try the bear side, but I almost never go against an uptrend on a strong trend day, as I find it almost always finishes at the high of the day in my experience, and I don't like going countertrend in this way. I also didn't like how it was between the lines I'd have preferred for such a move. Yesterday's setup was just about dead off my key line, and I still had a decent premise that it may be in a 'wave 2' off the top. After today, even though it could have been a structured 'wave 2' at that point, I was quickly being persuaded to think a 'wave 3' up was much, much more likely. Sentiment was simply totally wrong for downside potential, in my opinion.

Jim, I really appreciate you taking the time to write this up.
This is very useful for me.
Thanks.

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Originally posted by BBJ

Jim, I really appreciate you taking the time to write this up.
This is very useful for me.
Thanks.

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That's what I was hoping. If I get enough positive feedback I'll try to keep it up as long as I can stand it. If I don't get much feedback, I'll give up sooner. I'm not 'fishing for compliments', but it does take some work, so I have to know it is helping.

Jim, whatever you put down in this forum is of value. I don't have the time to interact as much as I used to right now, but I do read everything and it's much appreciated.