I thought I'd create a new topic and try something out and see if it seems beneficial to everyone. I'll try to post every day or so the times that setups completed that I thought were good based on the methodology. I will only do posts for times for 3-minute or higher timeframe setups. If the setup is on a 1-min or 2-min but could be used as an entry setup for a higher timeframe bias I may mention those, too.
The idea here is to point out the completion points for setups I thought were acceptable so everyone can make sure they see the setup, and go back and do the work, perhaps working through how they might have entered, managed, and so on. Mostly, though, it is to give everyone a chance to see the places I thought were the best setups on a given day based on my application of the methodology. Some will not have 'played out', but were still worth looking at.
One more point. These are not necessarily going to be areas I traded off of, they are going to be areas I thought were good enough to be looking at. I am not implying I traded them. I may have, or may not have, but that will be independent of whether I list them here. I want to give everyone a chance to 'start to see' the areas I think are the ones that best fit the methodology.
Most of these will be ABCD's, even though I will sometimes find areas that have enough for me to consider them without the ABCD. As I generally say to my students 'The ABCD is the 'hub of the wheel', the center point of where I start.' I suggest until one has the methodology down cold, start everything with the ABCD. I may, though, throw in a few setup times where other factors contribute to the area (like POC, pivots, GLOBEX points, and so on) such that some of the usual KT factors may be less.
As you will soon see, the posts will be in a format something like this, of course subject to any improvements I discover as I try this:
March XX, 2009
10:34 AM EXP ABCD, 3-min
Any thoughts or suggestions welcome.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
And the curious thing is, it applies not only to option swing plays as I discuss here, but intraday plays as well. The bias is the key, one has to be on the right side of the market. Since this is all 'fractal', the same thing applies, scaled down, to intraday trading. When to be on one side, and when to get off that side to take shots at the other side. That goes beyond setups and into 'context', or as I like to call it, 'context' filtering.
MR
mreiserer
Rep: 110
Posts: 2,220
and it's something that has happened several times intraday this week. Battle of the timeframes. A must topic to discuss..
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
4/13/09
Same as before, just 'up' until it isn't up any more. (As a side note, we are very close to a place, maybe we even hit it today, where it may not be 'up' any more, we'll see.)
9:57 L: .886 gap, 1.128, key .300, TL (two morning lows from 4/9), VAL, 3-drives into area (1.460 on last drive), 'morning high or low put in' time zone. Excellent ML set warning line with near perfect offset line (you'll have to hunt a bit to find this, but once you do you should see the sense in looking for this type of set before-the-fact). The set was from 4/9. There is also a pattern there (not one of our usual ones).
10:24 There was a shot in here for a short, based on a GLOBEX stop sweep, first the low side, now the high side. .685 at old TL (connect 11:47 to 13:41 on 4/9, no GLOBEX). Excellent trigger.
11:08 L: 4-Point CP (with .685 C point, which is okay), ABCD is CD leg (which is okay for 4-Points). Falling just as much shy of that TL from the first setup as it spiked through on the downside. With the TL and warning line just below, though, the concern is it may fake up and then come back and shoot for that. But, this also may be it, so it was too well set up to pass, in my opinion, if it gave a good trigger.
11:52 L: This was a tough one from a management standpoint. The last setup gave a great reaction, right to the first thrust area for a standard ABCD (which is another topic here, but first thrust areas for 4-Points are generally higher, hence using the same area one would use for a standard ABCD will usually lead to moving the stop too soon). If you moved your stop, this rollover and full test of the TL and warning line intersection (dead exact from a time standpoint) would have shaken you out. If so, then this was another shot, hence I labeled it an L. Those that rode this out would likely have been watching this area very closely. Those that do one-on-one with me should have seen something in the move down that tipped them it could be over right as it hit the spot.
13:02 Nice little EXP ABCD here on the 2-min, set up to blow out the daily high after the C point tested it, if one wasn't already long and still wanted to be.
15:00 1.000 ABCD, super tight .382, .447, .618, .685 off key swings grouping (do this, it was amazing), 1.128 BC, right at lower // and TL (12:26 and 13:02), which was also the GLOBEX high, tested from above. Also note the set from before with the warning line, look at its first outer division line, dead in there. There was other stuff, too, but that's enough. It was a super-classic setup. The only negative was the ABCD in the CD leg, but with everything else, and as mentioned in the daily commentary, the plunge on volume into the area, it was well into the group of 'worth taking', in my opinion.
15:44 This hit right into an area where it may be done, so it started to be worth looking at shorts, intraday. It needs a lot more for swing plays, but intraday it is getting worth shots at select spots. This was approaching several upper //'s here beyond 1.272's (it was over the main 1.460 at the high). The upper // for the big set since the 666 low was here (it actually poked a little over it), which is also a spike/trend line, and the upper // of the set from 4/9 was just above, and a spike like from 4/9, too. Finally, it was a pseudo-3-drives into the top. It also looks like 5 waves up off the LOD to me. I'm not listing this as an S because it is too far from the basic KT setup for this daily synopsis, but you should be aware of how I am looking at it.
Same as before, just 'up' until it isn't up any more. (As a side note, we are very close to a place, maybe we even hit it today, where it may not be 'up' any more, we'll see.)
9:57 L: .886 gap, 1.128, key .300, TL (two morning lows from 4/9), VAL, 3-drives into area (1.460 on last drive), 'morning high or low put in' time zone. Excellent ML set warning line with near perfect offset line (you'll have to hunt a bit to find this, but once you do you should see the sense in looking for this type of set before-the-fact). The set was from 4/9. There is also a pattern there (not one of our usual ones).
10:24 There was a shot in here for a short, based on a GLOBEX stop sweep, first the low side, now the high side. .685 at old TL (connect 11:47 to 13:41 on 4/9, no GLOBEX). Excellent trigger.
11:08 L: 4-Point CP (with .685 C point, which is okay), ABCD is CD leg (which is okay for 4-Points). Falling just as much shy of that TL from the first setup as it spiked through on the downside. With the TL and warning line just below, though, the concern is it may fake up and then come back and shoot for that. But, this also may be it, so it was too well set up to pass, in my opinion, if it gave a good trigger.
11:52 L: This was a tough one from a management standpoint. The last setup gave a great reaction, right to the first thrust area for a standard ABCD (which is another topic here, but first thrust areas for 4-Points are generally higher, hence using the same area one would use for a standard ABCD will usually lead to moving the stop too soon). If you moved your stop, this rollover and full test of the TL and warning line intersection (dead exact from a time standpoint) would have shaken you out. If so, then this was another shot, hence I labeled it an L. Those that rode this out would likely have been watching this area very closely. Those that do one-on-one with me should have seen something in the move down that tipped them it could be over right as it hit the spot.
13:02 Nice little EXP ABCD here on the 2-min, set up to blow out the daily high after the C point tested it, if one wasn't already long and still wanted to be.
15:00 1.000 ABCD, super tight .382, .447, .618, .685 off key swings grouping (do this, it was amazing), 1.128 BC, right at lower // and TL (12:26 and 13:02), which was also the GLOBEX high, tested from above. Also note the set from before with the warning line, look at its first outer division line, dead in there. There was other stuff, too, but that's enough. It was a super-classic setup. The only negative was the ABCD in the CD leg, but with everything else, and as mentioned in the daily commentary, the plunge on volume into the area, it was well into the group of 'worth taking', in my opinion.
15:44 This hit right into an area where it may be done, so it started to be worth looking at shorts, intraday. It needs a lot more for swing plays, but intraday it is getting worth shots at select spots. This was approaching several upper //'s here beyond 1.272's (it was over the main 1.460 at the high). The upper // for the big set since the 666 low was here (it actually poked a little over it), which is also a spike/trend line, and the upper // of the set from 4/9 was just above, and a spike like from 4/9, too. Finally, it was a pseudo-3-drives into the top. It also looks like 5 waves up off the LOD to me. I'm not listing this as an S because it is too far from the basic KT setup for this daily synopsis, but you should be aware of how I am looking at it.
MR
mreiserer
Rep: 110
Posts: 2,220
870-73 area is key, also interesting to observe the three drives pattern here on a higher timeframe. Maybe an exhaustion pattern...but then again Goldman just posted strong profit...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Well, I think it is a foregone conclusion that JPM, C et al will follow with record profits. Amazing how WFC said they will be posting all-time record profits this quarter (how can this be???), yet I just now heard they will need $50 billion to cover one kind of debt now. Hmmm. So, will the market 'sell the news' when JPM and C knock the cover off the ball with record profits, or will they jump the usual 30%, 50%, 100% a day they have been lately? Today I heard David Tice say we've went from mark-to-market to mark-to-fantasy. Same as I have been saying all along. But yet they keep buying like crazy, thinking nothing of buying something that is up 400% in a few months and up 35% on the day. And as traders all that matters is don't fight the trend.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
quote:Well, with the time that has passed, my best, super-key line on the daily/weekly, has now fallen right to the area you mention. But this is one wicked 'rising wedge' pattern. A true 3-drives (compared to this pseudo-3-drives as I called it) would be more symmetrical along the bottom, with // lines, not a bottom rising faster than the top line. This 'rising wedge' is much more ominous. When they break they usually, in my experience, lead to some wicked, fast downside. A gap open below the break point would be potentially even more ominous that the standard wedge. Just something to keep in mind, it may be done already after today. If I look at the weekly chart, this is now 'in the zone'. I've long since learned the lesson not to fall into the trap of waiting for something to 'fully test' a given area if the price action says otherwise.
Originally posted by mreiserer
870-73 area is key, also interesting to observe the three drives pattern here on a higher timeframe. Maybe an exhaustion pattern...but then again Goldman just posted strong profit...