I thought I'd create a new topic and try something out and see if it seems beneficial to everyone. I'll try to post every day or so the times that setups completed that I thought were good based on the methodology. I will only do posts for times for 3-minute or higher timeframe setups. If the setup is on a 1-min or 2-min but could be used as an entry setup for a higher timeframe bias I may mention those, too.

The idea here is to point out the completion points for setups I thought were acceptable so everyone can make sure they see the setup, and go back and do the work, perhaps working through how they might have entered, managed, and so on. Mostly, though, it is to give everyone a chance to see the places I thought were the best setups on a given day based on my application of the methodology. Some will not have 'played out', but were still worth looking at.

One more point. These are not necessarily going to be areas I traded off of, they are going to be areas I thought were good enough to be looking at. I am not implying I traded them. I may have, or may not have, but that will be independent of whether I list them here. I want to give everyone a chance to 'start to see' the areas I think are the ones that best fit the methodology.

Most of these will be ABCD's, even though I will sometimes find areas that have enough for me to consider them without the ABCD. As I generally say to my students 'The ABCD is the 'hub of the wheel', the center point of where I start.' I suggest until one has the methodology down cold, start everything with the ABCD. I may, though, throw in a few setup times where other factors contribute to the area (like POC, pivots, GLOBEX points, and so on) such that some of the usual KT factors may be less.

As you will soon see, the posts will be in a format something like this, of course subject to any improvements I discover as I try this:

March XX, 2009

10:34 AM EXP ABCD, 3-min

Any thoughts or suggestions welcome.

The reason I have the 883 area is because it is a .236 off the entire bear, overlapping with a .786, and a .300 of the 'wave 3' move down from May '08 just overhead at 898. And, of course, the upper // for the comparison move set for the entire 'wave 2' DB ABCD. But as I said, it may already be done. I can't wait to see, as it will likely make for some great trading either way.

J, I concur with your assessment of the technical situation. the 880 area is the logical area for a significant reaction as mentioned before. I had the 850 area as the 'early' spot, although we've ran a little bit past it, we didn't reach 880.So we ended having today's HOD in between the areas. Kind of at a 'grey' area where most traders would hesitate to act. In this case this is setup to 'freeze' most traders.It's a clever trick, IMO. Closing in the high range of the day and giving illusion of strength, and then perhaps have the overnight asian/european trading teams slowly driving the mark down . If this was really strong they would've euphorically picked this up in the overnight markets(asia,eurozone...),instead they seem to be unloading stealthily. Well I didn't open any new overnight short position yet so im neutral biased.A 'surprise' gap open is possible because of the 'shock" factor it induces.That would fuel a potential high volume move.
Im just thinking out loud here.Maybe nothing will happen.
In addition to the .236 grouping, that 883 level is crucial as it also factors in old broken support now as resistance: the .886 ret of the '03-'07 bull move; an inner division line of the mod schiff set from the huge monthly/yearly abcd pattern too.
lotsa interesting things going on.

T

4/14/09

Pre-market thoughts (my new name for the intro part of this synopsis): With the additional selling in GLOBEX, the run back up to a .786 'test', and then the sharp selling on the retail sales 'news', the premise this may now have started downside bias, as I mentioned in yesterday's synopsis, was my main thought. Always looking for sharp runs up, but looking for shorts side also now, not one-sided play anymore.

9:46 L: Looking for gap .886, but it overshot to the .941. If you use GLOBEX data, there was an obvious swing point and the .886 was within 1 tick at the reversal point. Note the 'natural' set using the 4/9 high, and low and high of 4/13. Look at the lower division line, it hit dead at that .886, again the overshoot was with regard to that line, too. Small 3-drives into area, GLOBEX low stop sweep, big GLOBEX .886 ABCD, 1.128 BC from GLOBEX ABCD, lower division line from upsloping set from 4/7 to 4/13 high (this set will be used again in another setup later).

10:41-42 S: Finally got the short setup, dead at the upper division line from that 'natural' set, at a .618. Anyone notice day after day lately the setups on the short side at a .618 or .685 with those downsloping sets, some 'natural', some 'adjusted'? VAH also dead in there. TL from yesterday that the 15:00 ABCD went off of (see last synopsis for more details on that TL). This was also an overshoot and failure/ price rejection of the daily pivot.

11:46-47 Note the 1-min ABCD at .486 and TL for management/add-on.

12:35 Note the Elliott abcde at .300, .486, and dead off comparison set for last ABCD.

13:06-12 .786 ABCD, 1.272 BC, the lower // of the upsloping set mentioned earlier where what would be the B point moved off the division line. If this isn't clear on your charts, you don't have the same set. .486 (notice how many times we are seeing this lately, instead of .447's?), .236, .300. I didn't list this as an L even with as much as there was there, for a few reasons. A .786 ABCD is very bullish, implying they are so anxious they can't even wait for the correction to finish more completely. Next, if you look at GLOBEX it looked like a bigger ABCD with an ABCD in the BC leg, and that didn't look as nice. Finally, I wasn't convinced, look at say GS on a 1-min chart all day, that the bulls would be able to charge back in. I was thinking correction and down maybe to the LOD. It did a super-chop correction, alternating with the last correction, which was very smooth. I will say, the plunge into the area was a positive for the setup, and under better circumstances that would have really attracted me.

Note for tomorrow: GLOBEX is now right at some key TL's in the low 830's, and is giving that GLOBEX 'basing' look like they want to run it up, so I'm ready for some upside, in case they want to play games, as usual. The big earnings are JPM on Thursday (and GOOG), C on Friday, and BAC on Monday (and IBM). This should really get things moving, especially with all those fake financial earnings. Not to mention a slew of economic reports the rest of this week.

awesome, thanks Jim!

Oops, forgot, 10:41-42 was IB 50% high extension, and 13:06-12 was IB 50% low extension.

What's IB?

IB is 'Initial Balance', and is something I can show you (what it is and how I use it with the methodology) in one-on-one work.

4/15/09

I have to admit, I can't seem to find a way to do a 'slimmed down' version of this, and I'm getting a little weary. I may skip some days, so I don't quit. I'll keep slogging for now, but it may be a 2-3 times a week thing perhaps.

Pre-market thoughts: Notice how it did base and spring up (when Europe opened), as I mentioned in yesterday's commentary. It then sold right back down, giving a nice range to the GLOBEX. The bias is both sides, so I'd be looking for stop sweeps and solid tests and retests, perhaps multiple times, of the GLOBEX range, and maybe a break out of it later in the day. There is also an ABCD forming as the market opens.

Note for the day. I find that a lot of my time is spent trying to explain where my sets come from. Without this, though, for those that don't already know the nuances of what I am doing, if I just say 'upper // here' that does little good. Today there were so many sets coming together at pretty much all the points it was crazy. Some of this was described in the daily commentary. I just can't mention every set today. I'll point out one or two key sets, but you need to study the sets from today like it was a college final exam.

9:33 L: GLOBEX ABCD, GLOBEX stop sweep, virgin GLOBEX point from 4/7 swept, .300 to the tick, TL, 3-drives into area (this pattern really requires a trend beforehand, which this doesn't have) or, more preferably, Elliott abcde. Previous set from 4/7 outer division line. Spike line. This is also one those those 'gap and trap' setups below previous key TL. Just look at how many past days recently they gapped it down and ran it. Over and over. There's more here, but you get it by now.

10:10-14 S: Right back to that set from yesterday's upper division line, the 'standard' set's ML, TL, .447/.486, .786, POC stop sweep. And although this wasn't a TD ABCD here, it was a nice comparison move, and the upper // from the set for that was just above. Lots and lots of lines.

11:16 L: Right back to the area of the key TL that the previous low 'saw' based on that super-critical rising wedge/ending diagonal on the daily. I posted that in the public KT area. 'Standard' set lower // was just below (.886 would have been nice here, but it didn't do it), another 'standard' set ML from GLOBEX, GLOBEX 'adjusted' set, all dead in there. Watching for a higher low here was the point, a 'wave 2' off the bigger abcde. This is also a 'head and shoulders' looking thing on GLOBEX, but not preceeded by a trend down into it, it is not as useful.

13:00 S: 1.000 ABCD, .447/.618 dead overlap, 1.272 BC, 4/14 afternoon high, GLOBEX high stop sweep (notice how much they went below the GLOBEX low, and how much above this spot is), daily pivot stop sweep.

I'm getting bored writing this all up...

13:52 L: 3-min 1.000 ABCD, TL, VAL, at least three lines tested from above.

14:07-10 S: .685 dead at 'adjusted' set upper //, 'standard' set upper // just above, another 'standard' set ML, and so on.

14:40-41 L: Right back to that key TL from the daily, fully hit now, .786/.941 dead overlap hit to the tick, spike line, 1.128 ABCD, 1.618 BC, a near perfect 'crazy' TL from the 4/14 morning high and afternoon high, and a bigger 'standard' spike line set lower // dead on. Note this is the line from the first short setup from the morning. So, here's the thing. Follow this on a zoomed out 3-min chart as I explain it. The daily is pushing up, via the TL. It comes down in an Elliott abcde, to the line area. So far, nothing but upward bias is implied. But it goes up in a nice ABCD, and dumps. This is not 'right' for the up premise. Maybe it wasn't an ABCD, even though it looked like one? It drops down to a very typical first thrust area, goes up to a classic .685, and rolls down. So far, it looks like the daily will give way, the wedge will fulfill its super-bearish destiny, and the abcde correction will fail. It's in a 'wave 3' down now, right? That's all fine and good, but when it gets to the 'wave 3' or CD leg spot, it hits that TL again. That's two synergistic factors coming together, both supporting the up premise. So, could this be a B=D TD ABCD there? I hate the ABCD in the CD leg, but it could be all of that was 'wave 2'. ABCD's in the CD legs of all ABCD's except standard ABCD's seems to be fine. Finally, this all happens at what time? The 'retest' was at 14:57. Look what frequently happens at or around 15:00 lately. Big buy programs. Look at the ABCD on 4/3 (or 4/1, 4/8, etc.).

Finally, I commented I thought this very possibly going up from here. Why, other than what I already stated in today's commentary? Everyone on earth has seen that rising wedge/ending diagonal. At new highs the ending diagonal is invalidated. The rising wedge won't be, but with a strong burst up it will be. There is no way in hell this thing is going to do something so obvious. The bears want back in bad and the bulls, with their endless truckloads filled with government money, are not going to let that pattern play out, in my opinion. Futures just jumped up to +7.25 there. They are just relentless. Every dip on the daily/60-min has been followed by massive buying and new highs. Financials are exploding. They aren't ready yet. They may be at some point, but I have a healthy respect, when walking on train tracks, for oncoming trains that look to be runaway. Just some thoughts...

There was a lot more today, and a lot of this was excellently covered in the daily commentary. But that's all I can do. I think I burned myself out with this one...

Yep, sorry to say, that decided it. I may do this once a week, if I see a day I feel I can explain easy, otherwise, I've had it. I know you'll all say I overdid it, I burned myself out, but I can only do it right or not do it. This one took me almost an hour and a half. That's nuts. When I started this I was thinking maybe ten minutes a day. And it was just supposed to be the obvious ABCD's so those that are struggling can see what I was looking at. So, hopefully the limited nature of this resource (heck, I can't even guarantee I'll do another one...) will have everyone going back and picking apart what I did, recreating things, studying what I laid out, and getting something from that.

Hmmm, I look back at my first post on 3/31, yep, that's what I had in mind. I don't know what is wrong with me... :-)

Jim, whatever you put down in this forum is of value. I don't have the time to interact as much as I used to right now, but I do read everything and it's much appreciated.