I thought I'd create a new topic and try something out and see if it seems beneficial to everyone. I'll try to post every day or so the times that setups completed that I thought were good based on the methodology. I will only do posts for times for 3-minute or higher timeframe setups. If the setup is on a 1-min or 2-min but could be used as an entry setup for a higher timeframe bias I may mention those, too.
The idea here is to point out the completion points for setups I thought were acceptable so everyone can make sure they see the setup, and go back and do the work, perhaps working through how they might have entered, managed, and so on. Mostly, though, it is to give everyone a chance to see the places I thought were the best setups on a given day based on my application of the methodology. Some will not have 'played out', but were still worth looking at.
One more point. These are not necessarily going to be areas I traded off of, they are going to be areas I thought were good enough to be looking at. I am not implying I traded them. I may have, or may not have, but that will be independent of whether I list them here. I want to give everyone a chance to 'start to see' the areas I think are the ones that best fit the methodology.
Most of these will be ABCD's, even though I will sometimes find areas that have enough for me to consider them without the ABCD. As I generally say to my students 'The ABCD is the 'hub of the wheel', the center point of where I start.' I suggest until one has the methodology down cold, start everything with the ABCD. I may, though, throw in a few setup times where other factors contribute to the area (like POC, pivots, GLOBEX points, and so on) such that some of the usual KT factors may be less.
As you will soon see, the posts will be in a format something like this, of course subject to any improvements I discover as I try this:
March XX, 2009
10:34 AM EXP ABCD, 3-min
Any thoughts or suggestions welcome.
BB
BBJ
Rep: 100
Posts: 129
Instrument ES.
Always bet on extension outside the IB. 95% of the time you’ll get range extension.
3 tick (es) violation of IB = range extension (price will trade outside of the IB, 1.5 IB or 2 IB)
If price retraces back into the IB after range extension up, buy developing value area low (current day). Range extension down = short vah.
1 tick IB trades with stop at range extesion= 3 ticks beyond ib
Neutral days: closes in the center of the days range indicates the longer-term trader was not in control (balanced market).
Range extension on both sides of the IB. After range extension to one side price trades back in IB no follow thru and trade gets rotational, expect breakout at other side of the IB.
As above as below. It happens that there is symmetry, same number of points above the IB as below the IB. Same with weekly IB (Monday, Tuesday).
Normal Day
Large IB area == for the remainder of the day there is little directional conviction and price usually balances between the extremes for the day.
The entire range or roughly 85% of the range is formed in the initial balance area.
Expect a rotational day. ( 2 sided trade)
Any range extension is usually slight and comes late in the day
Short-term trader is in control.
If price can stay above 2 IB by 3:30 should close on the highs, look for –2.5 pullback when above 2ib by more than 2 points for a close on extreme
Always bet on extension outside the IB. 95% of the time you’ll get range extension.
3 tick (es) violation of IB = range extension (price will trade outside of the IB, 1.5 IB or 2 IB)
If price retraces back into the IB after range extension up, buy developing value area low (current day). Range extension down = short vah.
1 tick IB trades with stop at range extesion= 3 ticks beyond ib
Neutral days: closes in the center of the days range indicates the longer-term trader was not in control (balanced market).
Range extension on both sides of the IB. After range extension to one side price trades back in IB no follow thru and trade gets rotational, expect breakout at other side of the IB.
As above as below. It happens that there is symmetry, same number of points above the IB as below the IB. Same with weekly IB (Monday, Tuesday).
Normal Day
Large IB area == for the remainder of the day there is little directional conviction and price usually balances between the extremes for the day.
The entire range or roughly 85% of the range is formed in the initial balance area.
Expect a rotational day. ( 2 sided trade)
Any range extension is usually slight and comes late in the day
Short-term trader is in control.
If price can stay above 2 IB by 3:30 should close on the highs, look for –2.5 pullback when above 2ib by more than 2 points for a close on extreme
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
4/20/09
The easiest daily synopsis yet.
Note the .886 ABCD in the GLOBEX at 7:00.
9:14 S: Flat/standard ABCD hybrid (CD leg same time duration as AB leg (within one minute) i.e. 1.000 time projection), .300, .447, .618, .786, upper //. Note this is a 'fade' on a GLOBEX measured move off 4/17 high. Pullback at 3:37 was a .382 to the tick, which was too shallow for me to see this as an ABCD, and I was very bearish by this time, so this was 'the setup'.
9:31-32 Tick 'wave 2' ABCD for a second chance entry.
Ride until close. That's it, folks. Not even a hint at a long setup and trigger, no management signals to exit or scale at all. Normally I'd consider riding some into GLOBEX, but not with the IBM earnings that were due out.
The easiest daily synopsis yet.
Note the .886 ABCD in the GLOBEX at 7:00.
9:14 S: Flat/standard ABCD hybrid (CD leg same time duration as AB leg (within one minute) i.e. 1.000 time projection), .300, .447, .618, .786, upper //. Note this is a 'fade' on a GLOBEX measured move off 4/17 high. Pullback at 3:37 was a .382 to the tick, which was too shallow for me to see this as an ABCD, and I was very bearish by this time, so this was 'the setup'.
9:31-32 Tick 'wave 2' ABCD for a second chance entry.
Ride until close. That's it, folks. Not even a hint at a long setup and trigger, no management signals to exit or scale at all. Normally I'd consider riding some into GLOBEX, but not with the IBM earnings that were due out.
TO
TonyC
Rep: 99
Posts: 471
there was some other intraday setups but not worth mentionning because it was chopfest all day. The trade managemnt on those setups was a rough ride, either scalps or single thrust reactions,but nothing close to a trend.I know cause I traded them and results were minimal returns.
11:56 S 4PC ,not a setup in itself.Just stand alone pattern but did react for quick grab.
13:00 S Flat ,overshoot D pt and undershoot upper // of the comparison set using the 11:56 4PC pattern described above.Again,quick entry, quick grab.
13:55 S ABCD with fractal structure, setup with comparison set's upper // using the 13:00 Flat pattern's price/time proportion. choppy action after entry...just garbage.Tested my patience for a while so closed the trade for close to a scratch.Forget and move on.
That's about it...
T
11:56 S 4PC ,not a setup in itself.Just stand alone pattern but did react for quick grab.
13:00 S Flat ,overshoot D pt and undershoot upper // of the comparison set using the 11:56 4PC pattern described above.Again,quick entry, quick grab.
13:55 S ABCD with fractal structure, setup with comparison set's upper // using the 13:00 Flat pattern's price/time proportion. choppy action after entry...just garbage.Tested my patience for a while so closed the trade for close to a scratch.Forget and move on.
That's about it...
T
TO
tomo
Rep: 110
Posts: 238
I shorted this one on 1:55 also Tony. And I scalped for a profit not even worth mentioning. The best trade of the day was ABCD just before open. And I was watching this one and did not pull the trigger :( Some of you have incredible eye for those patterns.
AL
albert
Rep: 99
Posts: 3,094
I concur with TonyC. Chopfest describes yesterday's price action well. I did not do well at all.
Al KAmego
Al KAmego
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
BBJ, do you have any stats on how often the 200% IB is exceeded, like it was today (based on my data)?
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
4/21/09
9:04-06 L: Awesome 60-min GLOBEX set, EXP, .447. Best triggers were right after the open. There was also V POC and V GLOBEX point in the area.
10:33 L: Second shot for the above, W2 setup .886 ABCD, close to .886 ret on gap day, lower timeframe GLOBEX lower //.
12:53-54 S: I'm listing this as one of two shorts based on nice areas, but although I felt they were worth trying, I was really biased up until close today, and felt the odds weren't what I like to see based only on technicals. .382, key upper //, GLOBEX 1.272, the assumption it was sweeping stops from the GLOBEX high, the VAH, and the DP to get to this area. The IB having went over the 100% extension by this time had me thinking it was going to close at an extreme high.
13:31-32 L: I'll list this as a first shot back on the long side, if one didn't take the short above, but I felt it needed a bigger correction after that strong run up. ABCD, 1.272 BC, .236 (I measured off the GLOBEX low), .618.
14:15 L: Better ABCD here for the long side. Set lines are tricky, two are from non-Globex sets, one is division line, one ML adjusted off upper outer division line. GLOBEX set is also in there. .382, 1.128 ABCD, 1.272 BC. Driving back down into the area below the VAH, DP, and GLOBEX high was a good way to get stops, then drive it back up. This was also the IB 50% tested from above now.
14:46 Good area to watch for a failed W5 and retest of the S: area above.
15:00 Good area to watch for 15:00 buy program. I'll let everyone figure out what else was there.
15:15-16 S: Perfect downsloping set divison line on the 13-min, .486, approaching the daily line from below for the ending diagonal, 5 waves up, 1.272 price projection of W1. One of the best triggers (actually two of my favorites triggered at the same exact price) I've seen in awhile. But, as with the above S:, you'd have to have some stones to fade such a strong day, and I generally hate to do that. I'd rather be looking for the next pullback long entry spot. This one was worth a shot, though, in my opinion, as long as I would get off it if price action said otherwise, and even look long again if it set up.
15:42 L: .300, .564, .786, awesome TL, ML, etc. This was HC^2 in here, but it put in a DB, the two LH's (look on a 34-tick chart), and clearly triggered, so if one was quick and willing one could get off that short side and onto the long side here. It gave one more chance just above this, too.
Okay, I slipped again. Today was extremely complex, with lots of price action clues, and lots of HC in key areas. So, my synopsis expands. And I get frustrated again, because the last few days were so pleasant.
9:04-06 L: Awesome 60-min GLOBEX set, EXP, .447. Best triggers were right after the open. There was also V POC and V GLOBEX point in the area.
10:33 L: Second shot for the above, W2 setup .886 ABCD, close to .886 ret on gap day, lower timeframe GLOBEX lower //.
12:53-54 S: I'm listing this as one of two shorts based on nice areas, but although I felt they were worth trying, I was really biased up until close today, and felt the odds weren't what I like to see based only on technicals. .382, key upper //, GLOBEX 1.272, the assumption it was sweeping stops from the GLOBEX high, the VAH, and the DP to get to this area. The IB having went over the 100% extension by this time had me thinking it was going to close at an extreme high.
13:31-32 L: I'll list this as a first shot back on the long side, if one didn't take the short above, but I felt it needed a bigger correction after that strong run up. ABCD, 1.272 BC, .236 (I measured off the GLOBEX low), .618.
14:15 L: Better ABCD here for the long side. Set lines are tricky, two are from non-Globex sets, one is division line, one ML adjusted off upper outer division line. GLOBEX set is also in there. .382, 1.128 ABCD, 1.272 BC. Driving back down into the area below the VAH, DP, and GLOBEX high was a good way to get stops, then drive it back up. This was also the IB 50% tested from above now.
14:46 Good area to watch for a failed W5 and retest of the S: area above.
15:00 Good area to watch for 15:00 buy program. I'll let everyone figure out what else was there.
15:15-16 S: Perfect downsloping set divison line on the 13-min, .486, approaching the daily line from below for the ending diagonal, 5 waves up, 1.272 price projection of W1. One of the best triggers (actually two of my favorites triggered at the same exact price) I've seen in awhile. But, as with the above S:, you'd have to have some stones to fade such a strong day, and I generally hate to do that. I'd rather be looking for the next pullback long entry spot. This one was worth a shot, though, in my opinion, as long as I would get off it if price action said otherwise, and even look long again if it set up.
15:42 L: .300, .564, .786, awesome TL, ML, etc. This was HC^2 in here, but it put in a DB, the two LH's (look on a 34-tick chart), and clearly triggered, so if one was quick and willing one could get off that short side and onto the long side here. It gave one more chance just above this, too.
Okay, I slipped again. Today was extremely complex, with lots of price action clues, and lots of HC in key areas. So, my synopsis expands. And I get frustrated again, because the last few days were so pleasant.