Originally posted by jarek

Maybe in the current environment we needed not just 3 drives to the top but something like 3.5?

It is very interesting to note that the push to the last top in ES was equal to exactly 61% of the average length of the previous 3 drives:



Is somebody playing games or the manipulation adjustments should also be calculated using the Fibonacci sequence? :-)

Originally posted by sirios

Jim, W1 and W2 are the most important when we expect change of trend therefore I'm still very interested in your experience with these waves. Robert Miner in his book said that end of W2 (start of W3) can be caught for trade in range 50 - 78% retracement of W1. Do you try to catch beginning W3 in all possible PTA in this range or you choose PTA with 61,8 and 78.6% retracement of W1?

sirios, this is something I cover extensively in the mentoring. Generally, I would look at any in that range as long as all my criteria are met for a PTA, which includes a clear ABCD, several key lines, and so on.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Market and forum... 6.25 point range all day, 3.75 point range for over four hours. Exciting stuff. Everything happened overnight, as jarek pointed out with his study.

Last minute range break and pop into the close here? Can't imagine it finishing any other way. We'll see...

Nope, they had nothing, it just stayed in the range. That probably bodes for a big move tomorrow (up or down), or if it ranges some more, an even bigger move after that. Sure struggling to think this broad area is some kind of a top, as it just looks like up is the trend, indefinitely. As we all discussed, and M pointed out many times, it will take a market shock event, and small countries defaulting or possibly failing entirely, given the moral hazard bail everything out mentality, is no longer a market shock event, if anything it has essentially no effect, or even a quicky little panic followed by a bigger, to new highs for the 'bull' snap back. Such is the insanity we live with, so got to 'go with the flow'.

See my latest post in the Economic Links section for some additional thoughts on that market shock event. Not for those with a weak stomach.

So, setup of the day? Using GLOBEX data, the ABCD at 10:20 AM, at the key line at a .382 area, with the 3D into the PTA. And in tonight's GLOBEX? The ABCD pullback to that same line, in my key Fib zone for such a 'W2' setup. And up it goes. New 'bull market' highs are calling this, and I will be shocked if we aren't at them tomorrow, likely before the open. The Transports are leading, setting the new high already today. Nothing but up, as usual.

We have a very interesting development and I want to share my thoughts here. Jim's setup failed already and Roofer's 87% SPY setup was stopped yesterday by 0.886 after the gap to the tick. If it will fail then it will fail really badly as all great setups do.
Here is the possible wave count which supports such failure - I rarely do counts here, but this one might be worth looking at:




IF this Ending Diagonal is developing now then we will witness a quick drop to early November lows. I mean really quick drop with short bounces and no consolidations, just like last move in Gold from its Dec 3 top.

Jarek, this can also be happening.

Originally posted by shmendel

Jarek, this can also be happening.

Sure - you never know...

I really kick myself because I saw what was happening when it happened in GLOBEX last night, and I almost posted it before the fact. The only reason I didn't was because it happened between about 12:30-2:30 AM eastern, which was only 9:30-11:30 PM for me, and I was staying up for this one. I didn't want those who only see that eastern time stamp to think I never sleep, or am obsessed or whatnot, so I let it slide.

Do a 15-min GLOBEX set going back to the 9th, and then look at it on a 1-min. If the two ABCD's I mentioned hit at the lower //, you have the right set. The second ABCD sets a new high for that ABCD (takes out the A point) and then goes back to the lower // and starts some 'trendline creep'. I was going to post this, and say get ready for a 'swooooooosh', as this was a major 'watch out'. It not only broke the lower // without a fast drop, it came back up a little on the European open to 'backtest' the line, and then it just tanked. No matter the trigger, it was there and it was tight. I couldn't ask for more in a situation like this.

This morphed the previous action into a bigger ABCD (1.000 to the tick), again at the morning LOD (this time in GLOBEX), and another 'W2' pullback to the exact Fib area of the last 'W2' pullback. All in all some pretty cool action. Wish I posted that...

Failure of this ABCD here would be a major clue for me. I suspect it will fail, ultimately.

in other words... it used to be that when a bear market was coming to and end, you would see relentless block accumulation. in late 81 and all during 82 there were block after block of million shares.on large upticks... then the stock would selloff so the specialist could cover his short position..it was pure manipulation.... in a market that did not trade over 30 million share a day....but with the advent of bearish etf's,the big traders can accumulate large blocks in small bits on downticks under the radar knowing they are going to take market higher eventually by being hedged with bearish etf's.