Originally posted by jarek

Maybe in the current environment we needed not just 3 drives to the top but something like 3.5?

It is very interesting to note that the push to the last top in ES was equal to exactly 61% of the average length of the previous 3 drives:



Is somebody playing games or the manipulation adjustments should also be calculated using the Fibonacci sequence? :-)

Originally posted by jimkane

...I think the most likely scenario, since any move up is so labored, is that it chops sideways until close...

So, that's what it did, but what about after cash? jarek's crush it scenario?

Eric, did you see that TD in CL at 14:07 for a quick scalp play? Right to the upper //.

yes...the risk was nothing...You are a Professional in every sense..you see everything.

Nice example, roofer.

Now, call me crazy, and keep in mind I make no predictions, but I suspect the highest odds favor tomorrow being an up day, probably a 'nice' up. Likely, as has been the case lately, a good bit of it in the GLOBEX. This would all be in keeping with the 'first move off the FED is almost always wrong' theory. This time the first move just lasted a day and a half. Heck, maybe it's not done going down, maybe the theory doesn't play out this time. But all I know is, this thing is right on 'support' here, with a pattern, and it has sold down pretty much without any real bounces. At the same time the U.S. Nightcrawler is right at a major, key area. I'd be surprised if neither reacted at all. So, let's see what happens. All I can say is my intermediate term bias is down until it starts acting strong, then I'm ready to get right back to long bias, and short-term I'm long side bias, until it rolls over. Just some info to ponder.

In case not everyone understands the new rating sytem Guy is trying out, if you vote up a post (the up arrow on the left of a post) the person gets ten points. If you vote it down they lose ten points and it costs you a point. The idea is to vote down the knuckleheads doing those crazy posts out in the public area pushing their services or pumping a penny stock, and promote good posts. Anyway, we should all vote up posts that we think are good in here so we can let those who are contributing valuable information know they are doing us good. This should act as positive reinforcement and encourage more good posts. I know if I see a lot of votes for a post I did I'll be more inclined to think it is worthwhile, and then I'll be more likely to do more posts.

If Jim's up scenario is what is going on in the markets right now then this classic Kane ABCD simply has to play out:

It didn't and it's a big clue about the current state of affairs

The move up to today's high could have been a W2 from the top right to the 56.4% retracement but with no ABCD in it:

in other words... it used to be that when a bear market was coming to and end, you would see relentless block accumulation. in late 81 and all during 82 there were block after block of million shares.on large upticks... then the stock would selloff so the specialist could cover his short position..it was pure manipulation.... in a market that did not trade over 30 million share a day....but with the advent of bearish etf's,the big traders can accumulate large blocks in small bits on downticks under the radar knowing they are going to take market higher eventually by being hedged with bearish etf's.