Originally posted by jarek

Maybe in the current environment we needed not just 3 drives to the top but something like 3.5?

It is very interesting to note that the push to the last top in ES was equal to exactly 61% of the average length of the previous 3 drives:



Is somebody playing games or the manipulation adjustments should also be calculated using the Fibonacci sequence? :-)

no, i think it was this...the computers never tire of the game

How sweet was that ABCD, to the tick, at 20:00. Three nights running with big action in GLOBEX. I'm sure not sleeping a lot lately...

Yep. Kane ABCDs are guiding this thing down so far:

And a .382 right at a set line, too...

Maybe the growth in the jobless number was just un uptick, but what if it is a first sign of the uptrend resuming and we will see this number going up week, after week, after week, after week?
How will Fed be able to respond to it other than hopelessly watching it developing?
Maybe we don't need a shock event at all and gradual increase in the number of people understanding this sad truth will do?

I suspect we don't necessarily need a shock event, either. If things finally just start to unravel and unrest grows, that could be it, too. Also, that USD carry trade is serious, serious business. Although there is no reason whatsoever to stop shorting/pounding the U.S. Nightcrawler and pouring that into stocks (and China just 'announced' the USD will continue to weaken), if a short-covering rally triggers additional shorts to cover, that triggers still more, and longs pile on, and it feeds on itself, and the participants have no choice in the matter at all. Keep in mind, over 97% of people were bearish on the USD at that low. Now, that's a short-covering rally disaster just waiting to happen. So, like a house of cards, it may make no sense to rally the dollar, but if one card is pulled out, the outcome is inevitable. We'll see.

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by jimkane

Then tomorrow I would expect big up.

That could be a C leg of the 5th Wave of the Ending Diagonal I posted yesterday which would finish the whole move up from the March bottom. But there is also a possibility that the rise from yesterday low to today's high was already it and down it goes with a vengeance without looking back. Wouldn't it be a great moment for breaking the first move after the Fed rule to fool even more people? Tomorrow will be an interesting day indeed.

So, here's my theory. The 'first move off the Fed is almost always the wrong move' perhaps doesn't have to just last the rest of that day. This is a continuation of the first move from yesterday. I suspect it is done, or very near done in here. The reason is, the USD is just about at a key line, .300 ret off the 'top', and so one. This may pull it back a bit, or reverse it. If this is a true short-covering carry unwind I wouldn't expect any serious pullbacks, but I think it is wishful thinking this is actually an unwind. I wish more than anything it was, but I doubt it really is. So, if the Nightcrawler drops a bit here, the market bounces. So, so far jarek's read is just great, but I'm being cautious here, in case that was it, and up to new highs (or the range top) we go.

Jim - I agree that until the current drop exceeds the previous one from Dec 4th to Dec 9th (which would happen in ES around 1080) then another leg up within my Ending Diagonal is possible. Especially that this selloff is not as sharp as I would like to see after completing ED.
And maybe this whole Ending Diagonal concept is totally wrong and we are on the way up to 1400? As we all know anything can happen ...

Nice ABCD forming on H0 with potential completion at 1096 area

That .786 alternate ABCD sure stopped it dead. But no downward reaction speaks for an upaside blast coming, and if so, will it be a last push into the ABCD, or W3 really getting going and blowing out that ABCD? I don't see any more downside for today, so I suspect the latter. We'll see. I'm long side bias in here, riding and watching.

in other words... it used to be that when a bear market was coming to and end, you would see relentless block accumulation. in late 81 and all during 82 there were block after block of million shares.on large upticks... then the stock would selloff so the specialist could cover his short position..it was pure manipulation.... in a market that did not trade over 30 million share a day....but with the advent of bearish etf's,the big traders can accumulate large blocks in small bits on downticks under the radar knowing they are going to take market higher eventually by being hedged with bearish etf's.