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ES short term trading 5-13-10

Impressive rally so far after an even more impressive decline last week! I think i should clarify my views on something. As i have been posting , im of the opinion that new yearly highs lie ahead.Most bloggers have still not quite embraced that view yet(they will! But i have also said that the decline is not over yet. Remember as it was happening i declared that this is what a capitulation bottom looks like? (refer to posts on crash day 5-6-10) . That would likely be the price low.(most bloggers have now begun to adopt that opinion) . I just feel the 'form' of the decline need one more leg down, likely into the 19th or 24th (refer to Kools calendar). In other words the price was ok, but the market may need more decline in terms of time.Any way , thats my opinion, right or wrong, for purposes of clarification. So the question for me is .. are we ready for that last leg down yet? If its going to happen at all, i mentioned days ago ,it would be most likely from this area,or the .886 retrace zone around 1183(which is a daily projection). Of course i could be completely wrong on all of this , but currently its my overriding bias. Time will tell!
Shorted once at 1174.00. Exited at 1168.50. Will short again at 1174. I have 1182.50 as the next level. shorted these for scalps during the the first phase down. Seem to be scalping when I should be holding and vice versa. 1174 was a previous market profile high and value area high for the market profile. Stop at 1177. Gonna take a quick exit of 1170.50 as I do think it will push up to 1182-84. Probably wrong on shorting here again. 1182-84 is optimal. This has been re-enforced by your analysis koolblue. I appreciate all you guys putting this stuff out their. It has given me a better guideline as to what to expect every day.
I felt the short was correct the first time based on watching the market test into previous value area highs on the market profile. But still not great on when to exit. Given I got onside on this trade where would think the logical place for the market to go from 1174 was? I thought 1167.50 because it was a previous level of resistance. But it moved to 65.25? Just wondering if you guys had shorted 1174 in the overnight session where would you be looking to for your exit target. I'm on two contracts. Would have turned and gone long at 1165.25?
would you have turned and gone long off 65.25?

I am curious. You watch/trade MP, do you ever see any synergies with MP and Volume at Price histogram? I don't always look at MP, but last week I did,

also, while many here rely on 24hour prices for pivot calcs, I was taught to use RTH data. RTH pivot for today is 1165.67, it was tested from above and that can generate some buying interest...

also, 65 buying interest could have been in place due to the fact that it was the end of day vwap value. VWAP generated on a coninuos basis (starting vwap calc at 9:30am and running through to the next 9:30am to start over), the 24hour vwap was actually 1165.25 near 5:30am.
Originally posted by MonkeyMeat

Market full of persistent buyers today w/a nice intraday trend. Mkt. currently trading @ 1168 as of this post .. and I'm bullish.

1175-1178 zone seems significant potential resistance, but I'm gonna be looking at price action if/when it gets there due to the bullishness of the recent mkt activity ... btw, also, Daily R1 is 1180 fyi

1187/1191 is next potential signif resist area (yeah, wide zone, I know, ugh) and Daily R2 is 1191 ... so overall 1190 area seems pretty important to my eyes if price gets up there

1160 below the current market still looks good as a decent support level based on price action over the past several days ... and also 1160 is the Daily Mid Pivot

Just another note ... I've got the 50 day sma at apprx. 1170-71, which was today's high ... hmmm?

Hope this is a helpful map that anyone can dovetail into their own trading analysis. And if my "new" vertical volume thingy is "off" ... fill me in please.

1177-1182 is a very significant resistance area, as that was the place where prior bullish reversals occurred before "the crash".

in addition to the 50d sma, 1169-1171 has a lot confluence:
- daily R1
- yesterday's Hi (1171) and close (1169.75)
- yesterday's VPOC (1169.5)
- yesterday's VAH

Gap fill has been fairly efficient (71% win/fill rate) in the past 3 months, so there may be a gap fill play here 1167.
Price put in lower highs in the o/n session, so I will be looking for a scalp short in the 1170-71 area.....
Not even something I've considered. I really don't use it for more than the value area highs and lows. And the high and low volume areas. I haven't studied it much but was informed by a friend to use it as an aid. It helps quite a bit as the market seems to have bounce off the defined areas. Thanks for the pivot information. I've never use them before so its all really new listening to guys. Missed that trade by a point. Nickle and diming the market again. This is where I get a little thrown off. The next time up to 75 area is it still a decent short even though it's been attacked twice? How bullish would a push up again be? Or is it still consolidating?
price is struggling to fill the gap , and we haven't yet tagged prior RTH hi/lo.
Maybe range bound today ?
plan was followed. what a bitch that was so slow.
Afternoon!...just woke up!... of course i was stopped out earlieron a short this morning in globex for a loss of 2. 5 handles.
.. Currently long a couple from 1166.00. will take them both off at 1169.25
More importantly, i see we got that 1163 i had been squawking about. And what a beautiful scalp that was! Hope some of you were able to take advantage of it!
Originally posted by prestwickdrive

Using Kools Tools, move from 69.75 to 66.0 projects 60.0

Next projection based on 69.75-65.0 projects 57.25 then 69.75-62.75 projects 51.5. carry over pitsingle ticks 56.0-59.25 filling.
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