Here is the $SPX equivalent of our longer term bearish setup in ES:





The importance of the current market position is even more visible here, because Friday's high was exactly at the upper ML of the downsloping set at what looks as a possible 3D at the spike line.
If this breaks to the upside than we should witness an acceleration of the upward move, since there is nothing but air above:

Was that a 'W2' off the big flat? Watch this little bearish ABCD here, and the Game Zone if it plays out, for clues.

This is acting like a 'W2', even without an ABCD in it. Watch 70.25-71.50. If they can't roll it down off that, I think the bulls 'win' and the bears give up. The bears need this area for today. Keep in mind, too, today is OpEx, and that can screw with things and usually isn't bearish.

The two major upside levels I will be watching if this big flat ABCD holds out are:

83.50-84.75

1190.25-1191.25

But I'm watching the possible deep ABCD at around 77 (in the Game Zone), on the slim chance it does that and rolls from there. I'd truly love it to drop off this current area, but it seems the bulls are gathering some strength. It may also go up a bit more and form a 4PT. Just some things I am watching. For the meantime, though, the intraday short side setup has played itself out quite nicely, and that's that on that.

Now - which W2 is this? Of the move down from HOD or of the move off our big bullish flat:

And, it's a 4PT. What a unique positioning, eh? To decide between two key 'W2's'. What an energy coil that is...

I still have to give a slight/medium edge to this moving up some more, but with OpEx anything can happen.

That being said, my preference is, obviously, for the move down. But, when it comes to trading, my preference is immaterial.

That might be the launch up there.

Nope, another little headfake chop move. Maybe they are waiting on the Treasury budget report at the top of the hour, maybe they are just letting it coil, maybe they want to run some stops after a bit. Who knows. I'm just seeing if the short side can play out again off the area I mentioned (it did just tick up over the level I gave in here, but didn't invalidate it, especially in light of the 4PT it then formed), and I'm letting them play their games. And, as this enters the Game Zone here, it is also another potential 4PT, giving us dueling 4PT's. Very interesting, and typical of a postponed decision, as usual.

But, I am very nervous that soon the HFT quote stuffing crew will come in on this low volume to gun it up for the Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday thing, and put 10-15 points on this, forcing mad short-covering. I'm very nervous... And ready to get on the dogpile, so to speak.

Originally posted by jimkane

...I'm just seeing if the short side can play out again off the area I mentioned...

And there's the close, 75.50 was the high. I'd still say that's close enough, it finished a lot closer to my area than any other place it could have finished. And followed the lines almost like a script. Oh, and BTW, that was a positive close for the ES.