As it turns out the Tuesday low was exactly at longer term geometry - x marks the spot formed by lower ML of our upsloping set and division line of a big Schiff set anchored at Apr-Jul decline and Jul-Nov rise:



The recent bounce reached exactly the ML of a smaller Schiff set and unsuccessfully challenged it 4 times already:




If the recent top was an important turning point that line should not give way in my opinion. We could have an answer as soon as the trading resumes in that matter

Nice work. I can't believe no one else attempted to find and show the area before you did, once I mentioned why I was watching that low area and hinting something might be about to happen.

As far as it resolving itself, I don't think it will 'fail' after that many tries. My guess is the Irish bailout (the one they adamantly said they don't want and don't need) that was accepted this weekend will gap this way up over that area. If I recall correctly, I mentioned a distinct possibility that a 'gap and go' may happen with that key close on Friday. We looking at 10+ points in short order, and another 20-30 point Monday???

Gap and go, up over the area, exactly as suspected. But it's only up 6.25 so far, so give it time to see that +10. No, my reads aren't always right, but on a percentage basis, sometimes I even surprise myself...

Oh, and the big shocker? The dollar opened on a big gap down. Like that wasn't expected...

And there's the break to a new high for the session. Sometimes it's just too easy.

And there's the further break to the upside. +7.50 now. If we do get that +30 in total tomorrow, that will be a new high for the entire move off the August low. I'd be surprised if we don't do it, if not tomorrow then this week. But you never know.

So, can anyone add some TL's to jarek's chart to beef up what I was watching at that low???

if price opens on gap,i will be focused on 2566,confluence of .886, measured move and medianline....

apc short 6531

it is always hard to let go of a near perfect trade at logical target..just covered GS..

here is why i have been stalking APC... sold this morning at .886 on gap on 5

So, note my comment below "...if it isn't a fake break snap trap, which looks like a 5-wave up to boot...". That was exactly what it was, a final push 'W5' over the obvious TL to draw in a bunch of suckers, and then they dumped it. What is really noteworthy (other than this classic sucker trap snap reversal) is that it went right back to the very same TL's that sent this up on the 16th (retested multiple times on the 17th), the 23rd (retested on the 24th), and the premarket today. After all those times coming off those lines (I have two TL's and a set line almost overlaid on each other), it finishes the day/week right there again. In many cases like this, especially in pre-manipulation Mar 2009 times, this line area would give way.

Notice, also, how the 4PT did send it down after all, but now this may be a 'W2' 4PT to send it back up. Given that it is at a key line area, I'd expect a possible bounce, and then perhaps back to that downsloping TL area. The key aspect to me is that it really already did a bounce, and timewise, on say my 240-min chart, the bounce and drop into the close was very fast, and doesn't indicate the immediate need for another bounce.

Hence, it may drop right down from here, even open on a gap down. But, when do we see a Sunday gap down and drop? And if we did, has it sustained even once in well over a year? Not that I recall. So, the odds favor another bounce here based on the Sunday thing. I want the important point to be clear here, though, and that is that it is coiling ever tighter between two lines here, and a break should be soon, as the apex is getting closer and closer.

Originally posted by jimkane

1200.50 in a nice last minute burst there, right to the heart of the key area, as expected. Can't wait to see what the open brings later today, and the overnight. Because of the time it went sideways, this last move is solidly up and over the obvious TL on the say 120-min all-sessions chart. This implies to me that (if it isn't a fake break snap trap, which looks like a 5-wave up to boot) it plans to run.

Originally posted by jimkane

Okay, I guess 97.50 will be it (pretty darn close to the meat of my key area) until GLOBEX opens later...