As it turns out the Tuesday low was exactly at longer term geometry - x marks the spot formed by lower ML of our upsloping set and division line of a big Schiff set anchored at Apr-Jul decline and Jul-Nov rise:



The recent bounce reached exactly the ML of a smaller Schiff set and unsuccessfully challenged it 4 times already:




If the recent top was an important turning point that line should not give way in my opinion. We could have an answer as soon as the trading resumes in that matter

here is trigger chart....who knows what the future holds.. i certainly dont.... just trading the geo-metry.. based on odds

cde

Originally posted by jimkane

So, can anyone add some TL's to jarek's chart to beef up what I was watching at that low???

Here are the obvious TL's:




I also added the moment of Greece weekend bailout which was good for a 6% rise in 4 sessions. It looks much weaker this time around...

Since the KZ was broken to the downside I'm looking at the following lines now:

traders know where, when ,why i will be defensive

defense is taking the field as i write....

hard not to be short today based on the computers...,886 on gap to the penny.....

Great work, roofer, great trading. My long side premise went to crap on the European open when it hit the 1.460 area, put in a lower high, and then took that out (and the little ABCD area it could have been potentially forming) to the downside. But, like you've pointed out, there have been plenty of trades on the short side today, and that side was pretty clear long before I woke up to the European selling. Got to go with what it does.

Those were the key TL's I was watching there.

Originally posted by jarek

Originally posted by jimkane

So, can anyone add some TL's to jarek's chart to beef up what I was watching at that low???

Here are the obvious TL's:

Click image for original size

I also added the moment of Greece weekend bailout which was good for a 6% rise in 4 sessions. It looks much weaker this time around...

Anyone notice this bounce has started from the big 1.272 there to the tick? There is also a key line area right there.

So, note my comment below "...if it isn't a fake break snap trap, which looks like a 5-wave up to boot...". That was exactly what it was, a final push 'W5' over the obvious TL to draw in a bunch of suckers, and then they dumped it. What is really noteworthy (other than this classic sucker trap snap reversal) is that it went right back to the very same TL's that sent this up on the 16th (retested multiple times on the 17th), the 23rd (retested on the 24th), and the premarket today. After all those times coming off those lines (I have two TL's and a set line almost overlaid on each other), it finishes the day/week right there again. In many cases like this, especially in pre-manipulation Mar 2009 times, this line area would give way.

Notice, also, how the 4PT did send it down after all, but now this may be a 'W2' 4PT to send it back up. Given that it is at a key line area, I'd expect a possible bounce, and then perhaps back to that downsloping TL area. The key aspect to me is that it really already did a bounce, and timewise, on say my 240-min chart, the bounce and drop into the close was very fast, and doesn't indicate the immediate need for another bounce.

Hence, it may drop right down from here, even open on a gap down. But, when do we see a Sunday gap down and drop? And if we did, has it sustained even once in well over a year? Not that I recall. So, the odds favor another bounce here based on the Sunday thing. I want the important point to be clear here, though, and that is that it is coiling ever tighter between two lines here, and a break should be soon, as the apex is getting closer and closer.

Originally posted by jimkane

1200.50 in a nice last minute burst there, right to the heart of the key area, as expected. Can't wait to see what the open brings later today, and the overnight. Because of the time it went sideways, this last move is solidly up and over the obvious TL on the say 120-min all-sessions chart. This implies to me that (if it isn't a fake break snap trap, which looks like a 5-wave up to boot) it plans to run.

Originally posted by jimkane

Okay, I guess 97.50 will be it (pretty darn close to the meat of my key area) until GLOBEX opens later...