Here is the longer term bearish 4PT we've been talking about lately:




Both breaking it to the upside and respecting it should result in a strong and sustained move in the given direction

Here is something interesting I've read recently. One of the most important long term cycles for Gann traders is a 60-year cycle. There was a major top in commodities which happened almost exactly 60 years ago (early 1951) during ... the Korean war. Can the history repeat itself?

And here is an interesting addition. Somehow, with a put/call ratio like this, even if instituted by 'smart money', wow, I can't see it playing out in their favor. Nonetheless, what these sentiment indicators show is surely profound and likely very significant, one way or the other. Everything is lining up for something big to happen, and likely soon, just as roofer's post about joed was saying. And with N. Korea and the European meltdown on deck, as well as many other potential issues, you can see how easy it will be to find a trigger to start it off.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/smart-money-preparing-sell-never

It will be a curious open today. The Irish bailout is in full implementation, and looks good. I would think this should create a huge pop today, especially with the Sunday night government buying that we have seen all but less than a handful of times since Sept '09. We'll see. My fingers are crossed we get some selling off that bearish 4PT, and then just virtually collapse, but I rather suspect the bullish 4PT will hold some sway with such a nice bailout with no senior debt impairment of any kind. The game goes on. No losses yet for anyone but the taxpayers.

And there's the gap up over 6 points. Next comes 'the run'...

Run well under way so far. Crude moving up nicely, as is the Euro, and down goes the DX.

"Everything is as it should be in this, the best of all possible worlds." Candide, by Voltaire.

But, they still have to 'prove it', still have sustain, and recall we are in the middle of a monster dual 4PT coil in here.

+9.25 so far. Not bad.

And yes, many of my reads don't play out, but you have to admit, I do get the read 'right' so often it's just crazy, in my opinion (and it's not a claim of any kind, just an expression of my own opinion, and nothing more...). And this isn't intended in any way as bragging, its purpose is to point out that I must be seeing something to be able to read it like I do, and it is a skill based process. I paid my dues. Over 37,000 hours of them at last estimate. Do the work.

Okay, first phase of the 'proving' process is in here.

88.25-88.75 is a key spot to watch on this checkback.

Area stopped it dead, bounced a tiny bit, and is looking very weak. Watch out on this...

87.00-87.50 is the next area, then 85.50-86. The problem is, when the moves are small and the areas so close, the spacing is very little between them.

Last thought to better explain the above. Here's what the conventional thinking is. Crude and the comms start to rise. Pump gas rises and all this puts a big crimp in the economy, and the prices drop due to the dropping demand of a weakening economy. Crude can never get to $200 (or $1,000) because demand will drop tremendously way before then. Now, here's what the conventional thinkers are missing.

Money printing causes a repricing of comms higher, and the excess cash flows into hard assets, giving the double whammy to the rise. Once this trickles down (and pump gas and grocery shelf food prices are the two biggest ways I feel this kills the average American), the economy will slow rapidly. The FED will respond with more money printing, which not only steals whatever tiny little bit is left of your cash savings, it will reprice the comms higher, and feed excess cash into hard assets, with even more vigor, as the debasement is obvious. Demand drops, and prices rocket higher.

This is the acceleration phase of hyperinflation. Wages don't keep up, savings are destroyed, the economy gets a lot worse, and the FED prints more money. The loop is complete, and it feeds on itself. This is what has begun, in my opinion, and nothing in heaven or on earth can stop it. It reminds me of an old TV commercial, which showed a guy on a merry-go-round type thing, and he was saying 'I have to work longer, to make more money, to buy more cocaine, so I can work longer, to make more money, so I can...' faster and faster, until he eventually explodes I would guess.

That's our system right now, and they've gone too far to stop it, change it, or ever admit they were wrong. They are going to blow us all up, and we are all going to stand by and watch. Mark my words. And although this is just one man's opinion and nothing more, you know my track record on reading things...

Have a great weekend.