Here is the longer term bearish 4PT we've been talking about lately:




Both breaking it to the upside and respecting it should result in a strong and sustained move in the given direction

Taking this out will put the scenario of W3 down off the big 4PT under a big question mark:

I think it's taken out at this point, but let's see. I plan to be intraday long side bias until close, off that .886 ABCD. We'll see, as a little overshoot in your layout, combined with a 'deep' backtest of those upslping TL's, is surely still possible, and could really sell it hard. If so, it has to happen now. Otherwise, I see a 'ride until close' coming.

Watch this closely. This is it. Key, key point.

We have our answer, exactly as suspected. Ride until close. Risk is back on. Call me at 16:14:59...

That being said 87.75 is the 'ideal' 'W3' area, and it is within that range. So, it may pull back here, or even crap out. I also have some linework supporting this area, so watch in here. If this blows out, they are serious. It looks like this is a 'major' risk on move to me.

The previous price flow from the 'coil' comes in around 93-94.

Careful in here...

So far ride until close still fully intact. Watching 93-94 next.

Still being cautious, as this is right at my line and still in the 'W3' area, and that may have been a last push type move there. I'm very cautious here.

Phew, still long side bias, but it is keeping me on my toes at each worrysome level.

On another note, still staying with the AMZN long side bias for now. I don't like the potential lower high in here, so I'd like to see it get over that soon or I'll get more nervous. This play was structured for call options.

Last thought to better explain the above. Here's what the conventional thinking is. Crude and the comms start to rise. Pump gas rises and all this puts a big crimp in the economy, and the prices drop due to the dropping demand of a weakening economy. Crude can never get to $200 (or $1,000) because demand will drop tremendously way before then. Now, here's what the conventional thinkers are missing.

Money printing causes a repricing of comms higher, and the excess cash flows into hard assets, giving the double whammy to the rise. Once this trickles down (and pump gas and grocery shelf food prices are the two biggest ways I feel this kills the average American), the economy will slow rapidly. The FED will respond with more money printing, which not only steals whatever tiny little bit is left of your cash savings, it will reprice the comms higher, and feed excess cash into hard assets, with even more vigor, as the debasement is obvious. Demand drops, and prices rocket higher.

This is the acceleration phase of hyperinflation. Wages don't keep up, savings are destroyed, the economy gets a lot worse, and the FED prints more money. The loop is complete, and it feeds on itself. This is what has begun, in my opinion, and nothing in heaven or on earth can stop it. It reminds me of an old TV commercial, which showed a guy on a merry-go-round type thing, and he was saying 'I have to work longer, to make more money, to buy more cocaine, so I can work longer, to make more money, so I can...' faster and faster, until he eventually explodes I would guess.

That's our system right now, and they've gone too far to stop it, change it, or ever admit they were wrong. They are going to blow us all up, and we are all going to stand by and watch. Mark my words. And although this is just one man's opinion and nothing more, you know my track record on reading things...

Have a great weekend.