Here is the longer term bearish 4PT we've been talking about lately:




Both breaking it to the upside and respecting it should result in a strong and sustained move in the given direction

Notice how the Euro led this entire rally, and the quick drop in the ES was really a drop in the Euro. Look at a tick chart. It's all about the Euro. Nearly 1.0000 correlation between everything nowadays...

FED 'Tan' book coming out any second...

Boy, crude is strong and still rising. It wants that high. I still see a monster ramp in crude and comms coming. Wheat up about 8% today at the high. Big moves in all the grains, softs, look at unleaded gasoline. Pain at the pump is 'a coming'. Look at DBC, coming off the KZ and line area strongly. No one would be happier as a consumer and citizen than me if the DBC got crushed to dust and the comms dropped way down, but I don't see it. The DX is strong, and comms are rising. Imagine what they'd be doing if the DX was getting hammered...

I think crude is due for a snappy little pullback in here. Whether it does it or not remains to be seen. But if it were to check back with vigor, I'd expect this might be the spot. We'll see.

Time for an ES run into the close off that little ABCD.

Interesting how it just had nothing left when it neared the HOD. Is just over 32 points straight up off that low really enough for one day? Notice whenever they go nuts gunning it up, it always seems to be about that 30+ amount? A coincidence? Yeah, right.

Did everyone see those amazing dual SL's in crude that prompted me to say if it was to pull back, this is the spot? It stopped dead at them and came in slightly, but so far that's all. Very amazing lines, they are. If crude ignores them, wow.

Well, that was it for the ES, just over +32 from the low. Tomorrow will be interesting. Maybe a typical digestion day, then in the afternoon we see the real intent. But the market is so wild, who knows. All I can say is the long off that low played out far better in one day that I ever expected. Now we see if this is a much bigger, bearish flat ABCD 'W2' here.

Why do I think that is extemely unlikely? Midcaps, Transports, retailers, and so on at new highs for the entire 'bull' (bull-s#%&) market. Not likely this is a 'W2' and down with others smokin' off at new highs for the entire run up. Hence, I'd think it is more likely that was a bullish 'W2' there and we are now in 'W3' up. We'll see.

i''ll pray jim's right.

Ah, who knows, roofer, I just play the setups, and it does what it does.

ES looking ready to start a move up. I just can't see how this can rise without some serious sideways congestion or a pullback, but a bajillion dollars in government money can do wonders...

Last thought to better explain the above. Here's what the conventional thinking is. Crude and the comms start to rise. Pump gas rises and all this puts a big crimp in the economy, and the prices drop due to the dropping demand of a weakening economy. Crude can never get to $200 (or $1,000) because demand will drop tremendously way before then. Now, here's what the conventional thinkers are missing.

Money printing causes a repricing of comms higher, and the excess cash flows into hard assets, giving the double whammy to the rise. Once this trickles down (and pump gas and grocery shelf food prices are the two biggest ways I feel this kills the average American), the economy will slow rapidly. The FED will respond with more money printing, which not only steals whatever tiny little bit is left of your cash savings, it will reprice the comms higher, and feed excess cash into hard assets, with even more vigor, as the debasement is obvious. Demand drops, and prices rocket higher.

This is the acceleration phase of hyperinflation. Wages don't keep up, savings are destroyed, the economy gets a lot worse, and the FED prints more money. The loop is complete, and it feeds on itself. This is what has begun, in my opinion, and nothing in heaven or on earth can stop it. It reminds me of an old TV commercial, which showed a guy on a merry-go-round type thing, and he was saying 'I have to work longer, to make more money, to buy more cocaine, so I can work longer, to make more money, so I can...' faster and faster, until he eventually explodes I would guess.

That's our system right now, and they've gone too far to stop it, change it, or ever admit they were wrong. They are going to blow us all up, and we are all going to stand by and watch. Mark my words. And although this is just one man's opinion and nothing more, you know my track record on reading things...

Have a great weekend.