Here is the longer term bearish 4PT we've been talking about lately:




Both breaking it to the upside and respecting it should result in a strong and sustained move in the given direction

... and all they could do was to reach the green ML:

... so the most probable scenario now is the following one:

Small bearish ABCD back-testing the downsloping ML just shy of the KZ:

Jarek,

Thanks for posting that bearish Kane 4 PCP on page 1 at the beginning of this discussion.

Al Kamego

You're welcome Al

so many short term downside targets hit in my traders....are they going to big bounce one more time?

?acouple of trades to kill the boredom

Smaller version of the bigger cousin?

Great work, guys.

That bearish 4 PT did hold sway. The interesting thing would be if this 'backtests' the key upsloping lines it broke when it dumped, and then it rolled over. Recall the key upsloping lines I noted that were tested over and over and over.

Too bad we don't have more commodity traders in here, and especially crude traders. Did you all see that incredible ABCD around 10 AM in crude? What was particulary interesting was that it was a 1.272 ABCD (which is fine), but the lines and Fibs totally pointed to the ABCD extending that much, and it did. Paraphrasing a concept from roofer, 'the pattern had to honor the Fibs and lines before it could reverse'. That required it to stretch to a 1.272 ABCD. Very cool.

The 'backtest' would be around 82-84, but they are so aggressive in this pop here that I'd be watching for the possibility of an overshoot, or totally ignoring the area. This could also be a 'W2' .886 ABCD, and up it goes, on a 'fake break' of those TL's, which are TL's that many see. It would be a nice trap.

Last thought to better explain the above. Here's what the conventional thinking is. Crude and the comms start to rise. Pump gas rises and all this puts a big crimp in the economy, and the prices drop due to the dropping demand of a weakening economy. Crude can never get to $200 (or $1,000) because demand will drop tremendously way before then. Now, here's what the conventional thinkers are missing.

Money printing causes a repricing of comms higher, and the excess cash flows into hard assets, giving the double whammy to the rise. Once this trickles down (and pump gas and grocery shelf food prices are the two biggest ways I feel this kills the average American), the economy will slow rapidly. The FED will respond with more money printing, which not only steals whatever tiny little bit is left of your cash savings, it will reprice the comms higher, and feed excess cash into hard assets, with even more vigor, as the debasement is obvious. Demand drops, and prices rocket higher.

This is the acceleration phase of hyperinflation. Wages don't keep up, savings are destroyed, the economy gets a lot worse, and the FED prints more money. The loop is complete, and it feeds on itself. This is what has begun, in my opinion, and nothing in heaven or on earth can stop it. It reminds me of an old TV commercial, which showed a guy on a merry-go-round type thing, and he was saying 'I have to work longer, to make more money, to buy more cocaine, so I can work longer, to make more money, so I can...' faster and faster, until he eventually explodes I would guess.

That's our system right now, and they've gone too far to stop it, change it, or ever admit they were wrong. They are going to blow us all up, and we are all going to stand by and watch. Mark my words. And although this is just one man's opinion and nothing more, you know my track record on reading things...

Have a great weekend.