Here is the longer term bearish 4PT we've been talking about lately:




Both breaking it to the upside and respecting it should result in a strong and sustained move in the given direction

Notice crude dumping (and the Euro struggling again). I'm not used to seeing the ES rise and crude dump at the same time... Hmmm, I wonder if there is a convergence trade in here?

I'm still watching the ES for that lower high failure the way crude is dumping... Long crude/short ES, for the convergence?

Note that on a convergence trade like that if the ES goes up, as long as crude 'catches up' by going up faster, the trade should still be profitable. It could even be profitable if the both dump, but the ES dumps faster. I'm not doing the trade, only pondering the possibilities.

I am staying on the short side bias ES, though, off this area.

Okay, there's the lower high on the ES. But, is this a bullish ABCD now in here? We should have some clues soon. Somehow I'm not really 'feeling' downside in here yet.

Okay, I'm liking my choice on the short side bias off the area so far. Looks like I don't have to endure a 1.272 final push up. But, will there be any sustain to this, as it hits into various KZ's and lines?

This spot here is key, as it hit a TL to the tick. Crude still dumping.

Notice the crude dump was right off a 4PT.

It tested the upper ML of this natural set 6 times already:




If it was strong, the last breakout wouldn't be stopped dead by this small TL...

Crude is the play o' the day, destroyed off that 4PT. ES looking better, below that ABCD and the TL, but now at the main KZ and key line. This is it. Now I see.

Last thought to better explain the above. Here's what the conventional thinking is. Crude and the comms start to rise. Pump gas rises and all this puts a big crimp in the economy, and the prices drop due to the dropping demand of a weakening economy. Crude can never get to $200 (or $1,000) because demand will drop tremendously way before then. Now, here's what the conventional thinkers are missing.

Money printing causes a repricing of comms higher, and the excess cash flows into hard assets, giving the double whammy to the rise. Once this trickles down (and pump gas and grocery shelf food prices are the two biggest ways I feel this kills the average American), the economy will slow rapidly. The FED will respond with more money printing, which not only steals whatever tiny little bit is left of your cash savings, it will reprice the comms higher, and feed excess cash into hard assets, with even more vigor, as the debasement is obvious. Demand drops, and prices rocket higher.

This is the acceleration phase of hyperinflation. Wages don't keep up, savings are destroyed, the economy gets a lot worse, and the FED prints more money. The loop is complete, and it feeds on itself. This is what has begun, in my opinion, and nothing in heaven or on earth can stop it. It reminds me of an old TV commercial, which showed a guy on a merry-go-round type thing, and he was saying 'I have to work longer, to make more money, to buy more cocaine, so I can work longer, to make more money, so I can...' faster and faster, until he eventually explodes I would guess.

That's our system right now, and they've gone too far to stop it, change it, or ever admit they were wrong. They are going to blow us all up, and we are all going to stand by and watch. Mark my words. And although this is just one man's opinion and nothing more, you know my track record on reading things...

Have a great weekend.