Welcome back everybody! Good to see so much activity and some new faces here

There was also a lot of action in the market while I was away. The basic question is, as Jim pointed out already, whether Thursday's 3D ended in a meaningful PTA or not. The best lines I could find for this area are following:



They don't look very convincing and there is no pattern, so the reaction at the current area should be very important:

It doesn't behave like being in W3 here (can always accelerate later). Maybe we should look at it as a KZ 4PT hybrid with elongated AB leg?



At the end of the day, the outcome could be similar to the previous scenario

6.00 hit (which was dead exact on my TL), causing a vicious snap up. Now we see.

BTW, right at cash close...

I'm really liking how the futures are rising off the GLOBEX low, taking out the key area and TL there. They have taken out (broken) the price flow off that 'W2' ABCD, the one I didn't think had much chance to send this to a new low for the move. I suspected it would perhaps produce a reaction, and then head up, which, so far, is exactly what it has done. It's now 5.75 points off that reaction. I'm long side bias throughout the night and into tomorrow, as long as it keeps rising.

Keep in mind, this is a big bullish 4-Point CP here, and it may head up to new highs off this. It may roll over and go to the standard ABCD jarek showed. It may correct 200 points, too. I can only assess probabilities, take shots where it seems appropriate, and react according to what it does and what my management plan tells me to do with those various scenarios. That's what trading is, to my way of thinking.

Here's a swing trade to watch, for those that think Muni's are going to take a big hit: MUB. Came off a bearish ABCD, right at a key area. Dropped to a .382 (to the penny by my data), and bounced up for a line test at a .786 (to the penny, by my data), and rolled over. If this played out it may move to the 93-94 area. I suspect they will try every game possible to keep those muni's up after the last scare, but this is something I'm watching very closely. It's not a very liquid issue on the intraday, but seems suitable for me for longer swing/position plays. I'm just mentioning it here for those that want to work it up and follow along, for educational purposes.

ES now 7.00 off the GLOBEX low.

The odd thing about the MUB play is that if it did happen, my timing factors say by the end of this month. That would be a borderline collapse, and I just don't see that as likely. I don't rely on my timing factors that heavily, so this could still play out, just taking longer. The value on this one, for me, is more in the implications, as opposed to the potential benefits of the one play. The clues it provides if they decide to hold it up are useful to me (I think muni's are totally toast and are being held up 'artifically', like everything else).

Okay, ES now up +11.25 off the GLOBEX low, at the high there. Not bad, if I do say so myself. That's a little cushion there to stand the nightly checkbacks, now. I suspect a checkback may start at this recent high. Notice the big dump in crude and gold, as the ES exploded. Sometimes it's just so obvious, what these guys are doing...

Originally posted by roofer

eric- your gld trade was discussed earlier in week.. first rat 89 pointed out that gld had set up .886 on gap on big time frame... then abcd setup on gap at.886 to trigger.....but no one answered rat89 bigger question of honoring bigger set.... your charts look exactly like my friend joed's.. i know what he thinks.... what do you think? is this it for gld?

Click image for original size

Click image for original size

Roofer,apologize I couldn't respond sooner..I have a template I am watching...trying to stay with the trend setups unless I have overwhelming confluence at the extremes. I am very cautious up here but don't think time and price are there yet. I need more information and confluence.

iwm bounced at line, at .941/ .618......how far will the bounce get? interesting how the new schiff set sits right on top of the last one....