Welcome back everybody! Good to see so much activity and some new faces here

There was also a lot of action in the market while I was away. The basic question is, as Jim pointed out already, whether Thursday's 3D ended in a meaningful PTA or not. The best lines I could find for this area are following:



They don't look very convincing and there is no pattern, so the reaction at the current area should be very important:

Are higher rates coming despite all the efforts to prevent it??

Ah, rates, don't get me going... See, the banks borrow at the short end and loan at the long end. Bern-Qwacke keeps the short end low, and the long end rises. This widens the spread, which is very wide right now (2/10's around 280 beepers), and the banks make more money. So, if long rates rise, the banks make even more money.

Let's not even get in to the banks basically making the committment to a long-term loan with short-term money. What about rollover risk if short-term rates rise? I guess they figure they'll still make a fat spread, just not as fat as right now. The chances of the yield curve inverting (or more importantly short-term rates rising above the long-term committment rates in here) in our lifetime is what, how much less than zero? So, no worries. Hence, let the rates rise, who cares.

So mortgages go up, so the interest on the U.S. debt soars, so the Fed's DV1 risk goes up and by GAAP accounting they go insolvent (I've since seen articles showing how the Fed can easily game it such that they can never be declared insolvent, even if by GAAP they were literally quadrillions in the hole), so what? They have accounting and printing games to handle that, the biggest silver bullet being the issuance of a new currency (which, I feel, is 100% certain at some point in the not too distant future). Hence, so what, let rates rise.

Alas, though, that is the voice of the oligarchy. The voice of Joe Average, who is losing his life savings as we speak, and will bear the burden of the hyperinflation, well, he's saying something totally different...

One more little push needed to get into the check spot right on time:

Okay, ES push here, or is it done for the day? I say push time.

Beat me by almost 2 minutes. I wasn't even close. Darn you...

Notice the desire, once again, to close it right at a critical spot? That's quite a theory I have there.

Originally posted by jimkane

Beat me by almost 2 minutes. I wasn't even close. Darn you...

Don't worry. A day will come when you become faster

yes! and when do we get my 134 spy?

Originally posted by jimkane

Notice the desire, once again, to close it right at a critical spot? That's quite a theory I have there.

Shortly, I would guess, maybe right after cash close.

Originally posted by rat89

yes! and when do we get my 134 spy?

Originally posted by jimkane

Notice the desire, once again, to close it right at a critical spot? That's quite a theory I have there.

It sure looks like they are satisfied with the close right in here. I'll be watching the after-cash reaction, but I think that's all, folks. Tomorrow is the big jobs report, but a lot could happen in GLOBEX before that. This is going to be interesting. Keep in mind, QE3 (and QE4, and QE5, and QE6, and on and on forever, since they must monetize all our debt going forward, given no one will buy it any longer, in my opinion) must be hinted at soon, and if the jobs report is as bullish as they say, it will be hard for the ChairSatan. So, will they fake it bad so he can hint? Or will they wait for April and fake that one? How can he announce QE3 when things are so good? Keep that in mind. Probably the report will be a 'blowout' and this will gap up at new highs for the 'bulls#%&' market...

iwm bounced at line, at .941/ .618......how far will the bounce get? interesting how the new schiff set sits right on top of the last one....