JI
jimkane
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Okay, no one has started the new topic, so here it is. Silver ready to hit 48, gold at another new all-time high, ES futures are up and rising, the Aussie is looking strong, CL another new high for the move, and working on that contract high. Same old, same old. 'Risk on'.
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jimkane
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Okay, here we go. AMZN traded as low as 165 and change, now trading 178, going straight up...
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
AMZN now 183... Now up over 10% off the low. Same old, same old. A few pennies from 184...
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jimkane
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And AMZN is back to the high for the move there. Point? The low end of guidance going forward is at 25% of expected. 25%! This stock should be cut in half, or just plain crushed, ala FNSR. Instead as soon as they try to take it down at all buyers magically come in en masse and gun it up, and now it's actually up from the closing price. Up! With forward guidance low end at 25% of expectations! That is a big clue to me that they are not ready for downside yet. Just a thought.
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jimkane
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AMZN is starting to fall fairly rapidly in here. Really? I can't believe it...
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, things are normal tonight. The dollar has hit another new low for the move, the Aussie has just about hit 108 (108, are you kidding me?, although my long swing play there off that 96 area has the second area of concern at 1.09...), the Euro did another leg up, the Swissie hit another high, gold and silver launched up (note that they both have potential bearish ABCD's in here, but what a joke bearish on them and bullish the USD???), and on and on. This is just unreal, really blowing my mind...
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
So, we should know something soon, I think. The DX is getting to that point where 'the big reversal' is going to happen, or it's going to take out a key level and really flush. I mean, for now, this is it, the area is really close.
If this happens, though, and the DX bottoms (I just can't see it, no matter how hard I try...), then it is totally 'risk off'. Stocks bleed like stuck pigs, commodities dump hard, and treasuries catch the 'flight to safety' bid (which I think is the plan, so they can implement QE3, 4, 5, etc., in time for the election cycle).
The only way I see this happening is if the Fed clearly, clearly states QE is done, no more QE, time for tightening, and serious tightening, liquidity is going to be withdrawn, etc. And then they stick with this theme, and do it with clear communication that this is the way going forward. I see not a one in a million chance of anything like this, but a zero percent chance. 0.0000000000% chance, to add some decimals.
So, no matter what the charts say, I just don't see how the dollar can rise. Understand, too, this is the dollar index, the DX, I'm talking about. This has little to do with the dollar's purchasing power, which has fallen since the Fed was created in 1913, losing about 96% of it's value since then. It will always fall, we can't stop that. How fast it falls has to do with how fast they inflate.
The DX index only tells us how fast we are inflating compared to how fast the others are inflating, the so-called 'competitive devaluation'. Point is, I see the dollar devaluing continuing, both relatively (DX), and directly. Even if the DX starts to rise, the purchasing power will still be falling, it always does, since 1913 when the monster was created...
If this happens, though, and the DX bottoms (I just can't see it, no matter how hard I try...), then it is totally 'risk off'. Stocks bleed like stuck pigs, commodities dump hard, and treasuries catch the 'flight to safety' bid (which I think is the plan, so they can implement QE3, 4, 5, etc., in time for the election cycle).
The only way I see this happening is if the Fed clearly, clearly states QE is done, no more QE, time for tightening, and serious tightening, liquidity is going to be withdrawn, etc. And then they stick with this theme, and do it with clear communication that this is the way going forward. I see not a one in a million chance of anything like this, but a zero percent chance. 0.0000000000% chance, to add some decimals.
So, no matter what the charts say, I just don't see how the dollar can rise. Understand, too, this is the dollar index, the DX, I'm talking about. This has little to do with the dollar's purchasing power, which has fallen since the Fed was created in 1913, losing about 96% of it's value since then. It will always fall, we can't stop that. How fast it falls has to do with how fast they inflate.
The DX index only tells us how fast we are inflating compared to how fast the others are inflating, the so-called 'competitive devaluation'. Point is, I see the dollar devaluing continuing, both relatively (DX), and directly. Even if the DX starts to rise, the purchasing power will still be falling, it always does, since 1913 when the monster was created...
