JI
jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
I have to start the topic again? C'mon, let's get some volunteers in here. Okay, Sunday night showtime, let's roll.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Great point, one I am pondering myself. My conclusions are the same as yours.
Originally posted by jarek
For me it is hardly understandable that ES is flat on a day when major commodities are in a clear risk OFF mode. I find only 2 explanations:
- this is a sign of strength and it will explode up when commodities stabilize
- the weakness is put off in time and will manifest later with a vengeance
Either way a nice ride should follow
JI
jimkane
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Posts: 33,089
Did I nail this one, or what? Exceeded the low end by one tick.
Originally posted by jimkane
37.50-38.75 should be it for the bullish case intraday...
ER
EricD
Rep: 63
Posts: 692
you guys all nailed it today.....great charts.....here comes the next wave in selling.
ER
EricD
Rep: 63
Posts: 692
great Post Jim...about "predicting and trading" it is just odds as you say. I find by doing the work and the so called likely or targeted path of price gives me a huge clue to what side I want to lean or play for. It is like a story that just keeps unfolding.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
There are such subtle points here it is hard to explain via written words. Plus, today is super busy for me, so it is really hard to post anything but short quips on levels. Understand, there are newbies to the methodology in here, and they don't have your high skill level. You may post something, and we understand exactly what you mean, but others may not. Hence, I felt the need to clarify what I am trying to do here.
Notice when I can sense the market 'wanting' to reach for an area of interest, based on how price action is behaving, I throw a lot of qualifiers in, like if it gets there, and I'm watching for management purposes, and so on. A lot of 'we'll see' and 'it does what it does, and all I can do is react'. This makes clear I am not saying it will get to my area of interest, only that if it does I'll be reacting (like tightening up my stops) as per my 'Trading Plan'.
So, if anyone makes a post based on a pattern and setup, and believes the completion area will be hit, that's normal. Why else take the trade. But, as it unfolds, there are many steps that take into account price action, and these all cause me to alter my course of action, In other words, I react to what it does. This is all built in to the methodology, because I know many times the area of interest isn't reached. I have an active management plan, as laid out in the books and mentorships.
Given that, my focus is more on what it does, and how I will react, and not much on whether it goes to a given area. That area is important for reward/risk calculations and such, but beyond that, I don't focus much on if it does or doesn't get there. It's important for newbies to understand that it's about the plan I've laid out, how I react to various technical signals along the way, and if that plan has a net overall edge over time. Predicting just doesn't factor that heavily into it. It's important that those that don't have the skill you have (we know what you mean when you say something, but others may not) get this subtle point.
Now, I'm not saying change how you post, or start throwing in a lot of qualifiers like I always do, I just wanted to clear this up for reference for the newer people in here.
Notice when I can sense the market 'wanting' to reach for an area of interest, based on how price action is behaving, I throw a lot of qualifiers in, like if it gets there, and I'm watching for management purposes, and so on. A lot of 'we'll see' and 'it does what it does, and all I can do is react'. This makes clear I am not saying it will get to my area of interest, only that if it does I'll be reacting (like tightening up my stops) as per my 'Trading Plan'.
So, if anyone makes a post based on a pattern and setup, and believes the completion area will be hit, that's normal. Why else take the trade. But, as it unfolds, there are many steps that take into account price action, and these all cause me to alter my course of action, In other words, I react to what it does. This is all built in to the methodology, because I know many times the area of interest isn't reached. I have an active management plan, as laid out in the books and mentorships.
Given that, my focus is more on what it does, and how I will react, and not much on whether it goes to a given area. That area is important for reward/risk calculations and such, but beyond that, I don't focus much on if it does or doesn't get there. It's important for newbies to understand that it's about the plan I've laid out, how I react to various technical signals along the way, and if that plan has a net overall edge over time. Predicting just doesn't factor that heavily into it. It's important that those that don't have the skill you have (we know what you mean when you say something, but others may not) get this subtle point.
Now, I'm not saying change how you post, or start throwing in a lot of qualifiers like I always do, I just wanted to clear this up for reference for the newer people in here.
Originally posted by jarek
Uff! I already thought that this post about predicting was pointing in my direction
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, why did he post that???
Originally posted by jimkane
Watch this ES 42.75 like a hawk here.