I have to start the topic again? C'mon, let's get some volunteers in here. Okay, Sunday night showtime, let's roll.

I wonder how Bill feels now...

well, it's good to have you back early

I keep noticing this kind of thing....that prices get pushed to the extreme of the geometry coincident with major economic reports or an unforeseen news event. When I look at how many stocks are hitting targets it seems that everything is priced for perfection... could the slow grind up turn into a perfect waterfall?

Originally posted by jarek

Due to the weather here I'm back earlier then planned

Was it by chance that this Bin Laden rally reached exactly the geometry at 1.272 of Feb - March drop?

maybe he was faking? there is nothing worse than a smart man who thinks he is genius

Originally posted by jarek

I wonder how Bill feels now...

Silver behaves like a wild horse trying to get rid of every rider, regardless if long or short:



Usually a nice ride follows, the question is in which direction?

Looks like a possible break of the TL after a bounce just to .447 in ES:

1.128

My thinking is that Bill is extremely happy right now. First, his position was very small. Next, he isn't doing this as a trade, so, like hedge funds, he can take immense heat for even years if he had to, to be positioned. He also may have flipped to the long side after the big announcement. We should get a pre-release on that within a week.

It is also possible he wants to lose on this position because by stating such a position he gets everyone sucked in. I mean, look how much you watch this with respect to how it affects Bill (everyone else is doing this, too). In the meantime, that may be his plan. This causes people to do things which affect other prices, which is where he is actually operating, while everyone focuses on what he does here.

They laugh at him, and he is laughing at them. Let's see in the end, over time, which is right. I've never been closer to 100% sure it will be Bill who laughs last. Even if this position is a 'loser', if it is, it was a lever for him to operate more favorably elsewhere.

This guy is an insider with tomorrow's newspaper and he does not lose. My best guess is this is in conjunction with the Fed, based on insider information and a plan the Fed has to implement QE3, and we are failing to see how Bill is helping them game the people. Everything is going according to plan, of that I am certain.

Originally posted by jarek

I wonder how Bill feels now...

Click image for original size

I'd say I nailed that gold, eh? It reacts right off that bearish ABCD, which I didn't think would send it down, and it does a bullish flat ABCD, and up it goes. That was what I meant about setting up the pullback area, and seeing what it does. How many took what I said about the long side on gold there seriously? How many followed the methodology like I said and let that dictate their thinking? Lather, rinse, repeat.

The posts from last night, latest first:

Originally posted by jimkane

Coming right off that ABCD. Time for extreme caution. Create the checkback area using the same principles as always, see what it does there, and that's that. Once again, now we see. I hope the process is clear. I am saying the same thing, over and over, setup after setup. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Originally posted by jimkane

And if gold doesn't respect this area at all, there is always the ABCD up around 61.7 (for the 1.000; do all the work and define the full area), but I am not a big fan of bearish 'W2's' off all-time new highs, as everyone should know. I'd suspect new highs coming as the more likely scenario. Eventually that will be 'wrong', but I prefer to lean on trends until they break.

Originally posted by jimkane

Anyone buy that 1.272 low in gold? Would anyone mind if I was on the long side in here? Watch this key .447, 1.272, and line overlap in here at 56 and change. To me, this is the critical point for this long going forward. If it checks back in here (I'd think it would), everyone should know how much and to where it would likely come in to if this is now back in an uptrend. That's my line to watch, then, if it does react here. Same as always, that will decide for me if this is still in play. Hence, 'now we see'. You just set 'em up, let 'em play out as they do, and manage accordingly. They do what they do.

Probably the ES 'dip' is over at that .886 ABCD, but I'm watching 62 area next.

61.25, with the line downsloping over time, the first part of this area is hit. Watching carefully.

jarek,

Very impressive work!

Good Trading,

Al Kamego