ES 6-2-11

Numbers from todays trade for reference

1320.50-21.50 POC as per time, low volume , volume spikes

25 - 27.50 ****closing vwap, low volume, volume spikes

29.75 High volume

36 - 37.50 low volume zone and volume spike

tomorrow will be MATD trading....hoping for a higher open and a first move up to sell. No other 30 minute bars traded back to the open print today. We'll see what happens over night.
that's me done at 13.25 print ,,,the poc...lucky buyers will be holding for new highs......out of ammo for me now!!
08.75 needs to hold for new is how it looks in my simple MP world for those interested
Click image for original size
Well done Bruce....nice work...
if price trades back down to 1309 then we will have 6 TPO's at that price and the POC will shift down...buyers don't want that ..they want this 30 minute bar higher so the POC can be at 1313.25

so this is a cool tpo battle...just draw lines across common 30 minute bars and see where price intersects...we are now tied at 5 tpo's each prices of 13.25 and 1309
Good look at the action so far. Prices are trying to consolidate here at VWAP and YD's RTH low. As Bruce pointed out, there was some nice volume spikes between 1307 and 1305. Remember this was the 10 point threshold from todays RTH highs, so whether it was real buying or just short covering we can't really know, still a good indication of momentum change. To approach the highs we are going to need real buying as this zone between 1311 to 1315 is clogged with big volume from earlier.

Click image for original size
good point Lorn and that is that even if we make the new highs, we have accepted price so far today below Value area lows from Yesterday...

the buyers although they have been buying at the lows have not been able to generate enough buying to spend any time above the VA low from yesterday...

beautiful structure though..especially how they tested the trend by trading under that last 30 minute bars low....

I'm not in this but I still expect new highs...the only thing that I would look at if I was trading now would be if trade came back to 1309...that would mess up the theory!!

Ideally you'd want price to stay as long as possible above 1313.25...and remain on the up side of the POC !!

that came just before this last drop
many traders who will buy this hour high breakout ( if it comes)will attempt to see if they can push it about 4 points over that hour high...this would make the market symetric and neutral...meaning we went above the hour high the same amount as we went below the hour low.....we also have our key area near 1320 from yesterday...

I personally don't like breakouts and am glad to be watching my kids right now... I think most would be wise to pair down on any break above those hour highs and move stops up real tight...

Good luck if your in this!!
Two sets of trips now on the board.
One down. One to go?
Was looking back at some of the oldest posts for the fun of it and came across this one. Some inspiration is always useful.

It's how you play the game that counts

this post is not about MAs or MP or money management or stop losses. this post is about playing a good game.

i've been involved in sports since i was five years old and have heard the old "It's not whether you win or lose ..." saying dozens, maybe hundreds or thousands of times. it didn't take long to get the message, but it did take a while to 'get' the message. in fact, i got it today.

short version of today: i dug a hole, got out, dug another, got out, and finished profitable but played crappy most of the day. it wasn't whether i won or lost, but how i played the game. i finished the day profitably, but was disappointed with my performance. and not in the vein of "Man, i left money on the table ..." or the like. the result was not disappointing, it was the journey that was a disappointment.

i've said it along that i don't trade for the money and i have always meant it. obviously, i don't do it for free, but it is the game itself that i enjoy. the whole process is a kick to me. lately though, the profit/loss aspect has become decreasingly important. the game has become increasingly important. i told my wife that today really tied that notion together for me. i was actually encouraged that i was disappointed with my win. a funny thing about today was that i have had much better worse days - in other words, i have had bigger up days on much worse trading days. regardless, today was my epiphany, my lightbulb, my ah ha!, my eureka!

will i trade flawlessly the rest of my career? no. that's not even a goal or expectation. what i do expect is to play my game and continually strive to improve my game. i'm convinced that internalizing this perspective will be the factor that sets me apart from the masses. it may not be tomorrow or next week or this year, but it will happen. i will continue to play my game, the game of trading.

game on!

take care


BTW: keep in mind i am a discretionary trader. the strategy of game may be less of an issue for true automatic/systems traders. dunno.
take care and good trading -