Alert: I got carried away in my response and did a major treatise, again...
Oh, I did think you meant about the market. Hmmm, then I'll have to 'take that under advisement', in that perhaps I am assuming too much about what people understand, or can figure out on their own. My comment on how I think was designed to get you (and everyone) to think about how I think as a trader.
Thinking like a trader has more to do with strategy, making decisions on odds and which setups to take, how to 'play for position', how to time things, how to decide if the 'idea' (the trade premise) is likely a good one, and so on. One can only get so good at setups, and they are only 10%-20% of the 'Trading Plan'. The rest is where you can get the bang for the buck in the skills arena. In total they are, in my plan, 80%-90%. Why focus on such a small chunk, then?
Without getting sidetracked, it's a big personal pet peeve of mine how almost all the blogs I read, pretty much, and it's more than a few, all talk about the area, and that's it. Nothing about stops, nothing about entry, nothing about whether they took the trade there or not. Lots of pretty pictures, but that is of very, very limited help in my opinion, because the devil is in the details,
not in the setup.
For example, in most blogs I read, the setup is posted. Now, watch for this. If the area is reacted to, a post is made showing the reaction, and how spot on the poster was. If the area was blown through, almost every time nothing. No chart, to explanation of where the entry was, where the stop was, how it was handled, and so on. Just another post of the next area, and then the same procedure.
What really gets me is when the reaction is small, and if someone is good at picking areas, there will almost always be a reaction of some kind, and then this is shown close up, commenting on another dead hit. Okay, great. For those learning, where did you enter, and why, where was your stop, how did you handle it when it only went a little ways and then reversed. And, is that consistent with what you did on the trades that worked?
In other words, you got out and grabbed some of that little profit, but that point would not have caused you to get out early on those winners you showed really moving, right? This is the stuff people need to see, not endless setups. It is very easy for a beginner to think the setups shown on an average 'good' blog are very high percentage setups, based on presentation, when trading reality is far, far,
far from that.
Now, one may say I do no better myself in here. Not so. I am totally doing something else in here. I am not emphasizing setups, and I rarely post charts in advance showing setups. If I do I try to follow up with many various aspects of the potential trade, outside of the setup. I am open to answer any questions (from an educational standpoint) on any setup, area, or post (some things are proprietary, so I can't 'publicly' post everything, of course, but I will do my best).
I am simply trying to focus people's attention in here to areas that they should concentrate on, so they can practice what is greatly detailed in the books and mentoring. This forum isn't to teach the basics, it is to guide the readers to where to focus their efforts. This is not what the blogs I read are doing. The blogs aren't a supplement to a greatly detailed plan that is available to the readers. It is all you get.
In that way I think they are doing a great disservice to many beginners, and some are outright deceptive in how 'good' they make themselves look. Looking at them through an experienced trader's eyes it is very clear just how this is being done, and how beginners will see what is presented.
Understand, I am not thinking of any blogs in particular here, and there are a few we all know about that are outstanding, but most, if not just about all of the ones I see out there that are heavily followed fit the above description in my opinion. I wanted to bring this up here because most in here have a group of blogs they follow, and perhaps trying to get this point across may be highly beneficial.
Part of being successful at trading, I think, is having a firm grasp on reality and what is possible, and on what is really going on. Laboring under false illusions can really keep a person from success, I feel. Try to look at all blogs and blog posts keeping in mind what I said above and see what you discover. And if you discover nothing, what did you risk? Some time trying to think a little differently? No big deal. Maybe you'll make a real discovery. Blog readers beware! You all know when I point something out it usually has merit.
Originally posted by jarek
Originally posted by jimkane
I should probably correct this for better clarity for everyone trying to dissect my posts:
Nope, you don't know how I'm thinking.
Originally posted by jimkane
Nope, you don't know what I think...
Originally posted by jarek
Originally posted by jimkane
Everyone should know what I think.
I think you're way too optimistic...
I think I should also clarify something. I didn't mean you were too optimistic about the market, but in assuming that 'everyone should know what I think'
By the way - tomorrow I'm out of town and won't be posting. Good trading!
