ES approached major downsloping ML on a daily chart:


Acceleration, bounce or coil now? In case of the first, our target area is just 4-5% away. Exactly the same as in case of $RUT for the move off its head and shoulders pattern confluent with the green set lower ML:

ES moving up nicely. 13 failed tries and the area holds? This one will be another new first in all my experience...

If the scenario is up from here, this area should hold:

... and it did, although the upsloping set was slightly different from the one above:



Let's now see how it reacts to bearish ABCDs forming on the way up of which this 4PT is the first one

at the low on the 13th, i had no geometry to trade ... on the 14th i had .886 on gap to short...yesterday i finally had geometry to hang a trade on.... 1,128dbs... I STILL DO NOT HAVE A BIG BUY SIGNAL BASED ON HUNDREDS OF BUY SIGNALS IN INDIVIDUAL STOCKS....

The 4PT was clearly 'seen' and now bulls need to fight for survival here one more time:

Bulls' last hope - test and retest at lower ML:

If this really is continuation of the shakeout process then, as Joed said, only those with the largest ones could survive:

If bears are in charge, then this bearish ABCD shouldn't give way:

... and it didn't:



The question is: was this bigger 4PT a mere W4 or something more?

Looking at how our good old Schiff set was respected in the last few days, its no wonder that it bounced right here:

Okay, that's it for me. I probably won't post again until the Sunday night session.