Welcome back everybody! I just returned for a one week break between my holidays and thought it won't be bad if I share some charts Here is the update of my daily ES chart:

That's the one. You can also see my next level, near where your number 2 is.

But so far it loves this KZ key line 4.75 area. I don't think we'll see a new low, though, but probably just some dancing between that 4.75 and the LOD as we approach the RTH close. Maybe after hours, in GLOBEX, it may go lower. We'll see. I'd love to be pleasantly surprised and see it dump hard.

C'mon, pleasant surprise. A 1.460 or 1.618 rollover to hit the area fully. Or, give me a collapse to the next level. Okay, I'll settle for the first one.

Originally posted by jimkane

...You can also see my next level, near where your number 2 is.

I was looking at this spot on a smaller timeframe, but it looked too distant to me for such a short time:

A one-tick test of the lows. As I said, this will likely stay in the range of that 4.75 and the LOD for the rest of the RTH. Okay, it probed the LOD by one tick. Still, it stayed in that area, which is the most common thing I see in cases like this. Quite a reaction off that probe, though, huh? What I think they'd like to do is take that 4.75 out decisively now, before the RTH close, or big-time in after cash. I'm not sure if they can do it, but I can tell it's what they want, and they want it bad. It's like they tease the bears, one tick them, and then smoke them, in order to demoralize them and get them to give up. Just my opinion.

Wow, after cash selling. I'm impressed. I really love selling (both doing it, and just seeing it in the market), and sellers. And there's a new LOD! Probably be another nominal probe, but we'll see. I'm feeling a lot better about my intermediate term downside bias... But, perhaps they forge a deal, or say they are close, and we go up way more than this tomorrow.

So, my area is now hit fully, with a 1.272 rollover. Is that it? Time for some 'good news'? Or will this sustain to the next level? That would be sweet, but this is so stretched I'm ready for a big bounce or reversal any second...

And what if they announce that there will be no deal at all? Relief rally?

One of my favorite insane speculation stocks is GMCR. They just announced earnings and are not only up at another new all-time high, they are up there by a big jump, about 18%. Trading around 104, up from a close at 88, which was an ABCD. At its low during the crisis it was around 5...

Curious. He's posted this before, as it has progressed. I'm thinking it is so obvious, and he's been showing it at ZH, no way it will play out. But, you never know...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-ominous-similarities

Okay, back to bed for me. I'll let the European coterie take over in my place...

Let's follow up on this. Go to the time shown below on your ES all-sessions chart. The ES was around 1290. It rose from there to 1294.50. Note the first level posted below. It then began to drop. It did a very typical 'W1' first move (my mentor students would know just how typical this was, but that is not necessary information for this example), a nice 'W2' pullback, and then headed back down, hitting a new low for the move at 1278.50. That was a drop of 16 points off the area posted.

Although I didn't post this because it was the middle of the night for me, my key level once this started to sell off was hit within one tick of the center of my grouping level (and the small bounce on the way down was also at an area I'd expect that from). The bounce up after of 22.25 points was right between my two most critical lines (do an obvious TL!). Just amazing, to put it mildly. So, once again, the same point. How, of all the places on the chart this could have risen to and then sold off hard from, why, again, was it one of the levels I posted (in advance, of course)?

Now, I am not saying this is a panacea, or a way to riches. Everyone who has followed me for any length of time knows I am not even hinting at that. I don't know which level, if any, this will respect. I have to have an idea what I think will happen so that I know where I may trade, and on what side. This takes experience. And as I've said, the setup is only 10%-20% of my 'Trading Plan'. But, if one can't see these levels in advance like I do, it's one part of the 'Trading Plan', a critical part, that is missing, and needs to be sorted out.

I will say, as an aside, I just can't let go of the bad experience I had out in the public area. So many jumping on the bandwagon, attacking me, wondering what my agenda was. How about this for an agenda: I seem to be able to find some key levels, in advance, on a repeatable basis and I want to share this with people. If you really want the details, I want at least a token, nominal amount for the books, which took me an incredible amount of time to write.

If you look at how many hours they took me, and how many I've sold, I think I've made like $10 an hour, or less (it's just a guess, I'm not sure what it really is). So, it's likely my motivation wasn't purely financial in writing them, huh? All I ask is to at least give me my $10/hour for my effort, and then I'll show you a big chunk of what has taken me just about 40,000 hours now to develop.

But, no, they hammered me for being a shill, and decided that it isn't worth looking at my work. Now I post the levels in here, for free, they get reactions over and over and over, and I'm willing to answer questions on how this is done so anyone can try to duplicate the work. And out there, they have no clue as to what we do. And they don't want to know. And they go on hating, patrolling the forum for 'people like me', making sure they are crushed and driven out. They are very good at what they do; they've succeeded. And we will keep on posting in here, stuff that, to me, seems so good it can't even be real. I guess they won, huh?

(Let me mention that none of the above comments are meant to in any way reflect badly upon Guy, the forum owner. He's between a rock and a hard spot in situations like this, in that he has to let people express their opinions to a point, or he will be seen as too overbearing. Give people freedom, but not too much freedom. It's a tough job.

I lay all the 'blame', 100%, on the handful of 'haters' out there who have an agenda that has little to do with finding truly valuable information, even if it costs, and more about proving the point that anything of value must be free (good luck with that one...), and that anyone who disagrees, or won't acquiesce to their 'authority' in their threads on this, must be driven out.)

Posted-07/29/2011 : 02:07:00

Originally posted by jimkane

Upside levels, short-term, in case we need them, are:

94.50-95.00 (.447 is at 96.41, 1.000 ABCD at 93.50, so in there somewhere?)

98.75-99.00

1303.50-4.75

Center of the areas, as usual. And I think we may be needing them, sooner than one might think...