Welcome back everybody! I just returned for a one week break between my holidays and thought it won't be bad if I share some charts Here is the update of my daily ES chart:

That 1-min volume spike of about 26K would normally end it if there weren't any big sellers around. I'm not really sensing big sellers. So, despite that it looked like it was about to dump, I think that may be it.

And, recall my theory about how they make it look one way when they are about to go the other. So, I think this one is done for now, as far as the intraday play. But I'll see what it does, as you never know. Big things can happen in these last few minutes, and in the after-cash.

Nice jump up in the futures on the open there. I think the 'bottom' is in for now. Up we go. I'm now long-side bias. But, everyone should know I'm not married to that, and price action always rules for me. I can switch sides, mentally, in less than one second flat if what I see implies such a change.

Chart update of roofer's DIA and TNA.
TNA 30 minute.


TNA 60 minute.


TNA weekly.



DIA 30 minute

Time for one of my favorite expressions: 'Oops'. Boner announces a delay in the vote and swooooooosh, down the futures go. The GLOBEX break time started at 17:30, so I went to the SPY to see where it went from there, and the SPY made it all back pretty quickly (by my data), but dropped back down a little since then. So, if it stayed here the futures would open on a gap up. I can't see this lasting, but I'll take it, since, as I said, intermediate-term I'm wildly bearish.

Perhaps I should explain that. I am actually, at best, dubious in my thinking that this is going down substantially in the intermediate-term, but right now I can only reconcile myself to the short side in that term. I may acquiesce at some point, and perhaps quickly, but for now, I'm 'hopeful' on the short side.

As always, I'm ready for the next gun up, and when they finally do the obvious and raise the debt ceiling, unless it is a sell the news event (no one I have heard on earth is predicting that, 100% say big relief rally), it may jump, and I'll get off the short-side bias. Although I truly see a high probability of new highs coming, and we have really been range trading for some time now, I want to potentially be positioned if this does take a big leg down. That's my thinking on the short-side bias.

Nice charts. You can see the technical basis for my short-side intermediate-term bias. I hope at the least we get the ABCD completions.

Originally posted by tx_ches

Chart update of roofer's DIA and TNA.
TNA 30 minute.

Click image for original size

TNA 60 minute.

Click image for original size

TNA weekly.

Click image for original size

DIA 30 minute

Click image for original size

''boner'' now that's a good one !

ES 60 minute.
The ML has held for the moment. I've marked with gray lines where it may checkback to the KZ of the last swing.

Too funny, the futures gap up as I said, making back the entire drop. They have since drifted a little lower, but that fast they decide the entire drop was unwarranted. Stupid, stupid, stupid. And typical.

Yep. I have no tolerance for that character. Or any of them, for that matter. The unfunded liabilities, by the estimate I find most accurate, are around $210 trillion. They acknowledge we are falling $1.5 trillion in the hole per year right now, but one review I saw showed they are hiding a lot, and it's is more like $4 trillion, perhaps even $5 trillion per year. That would be $15-$50 trillion more in ten years. And they are fighting over cuts well under a trillion total over ten years. And they mostly all fall on the poor and middle class. Too sick for me...

Originally posted by roofer

''boner'' now that's a good one !

Let's follow up on this. Go to the time shown below on your ES all-sessions chart. The ES was around 1290. It rose from there to 1294.50. Note the first level posted below. It then began to drop. It did a very typical 'W1' first move (my mentor students would know just how typical this was, but that is not necessary information for this example), a nice 'W2' pullback, and then headed back down, hitting a new low for the move at 1278.50. That was a drop of 16 points off the area posted.

Although I didn't post this because it was the middle of the night for me, my key level once this started to sell off was hit within one tick of the center of my grouping level (and the small bounce on the way down was also at an area I'd expect that from). The bounce up after of 22.25 points was right between my two most critical lines (do an obvious TL!). Just amazing, to put it mildly. So, once again, the same point. How, of all the places on the chart this could have risen to and then sold off hard from, why, again, was it one of the levels I posted (in advance, of course)?

Now, I am not saying this is a panacea, or a way to riches. Everyone who has followed me for any length of time knows I am not even hinting at that. I don't know which level, if any, this will respect. I have to have an idea what I think will happen so that I know where I may trade, and on what side. This takes experience. And as I've said, the setup is only 10%-20% of my 'Trading Plan'. But, if one can't see these levels in advance like I do, it's one part of the 'Trading Plan', a critical part, that is missing, and needs to be sorted out.

I will say, as an aside, I just can't let go of the bad experience I had out in the public area. So many jumping on the bandwagon, attacking me, wondering what my agenda was. How about this for an agenda: I seem to be able to find some key levels, in advance, on a repeatable basis and I want to share this with people. If you really want the details, I want at least a token, nominal amount for the books, which took me an incredible amount of time to write.

If you look at how many hours they took me, and how many I've sold, I think I've made like $10 an hour, or less (it's just a guess, I'm not sure what it really is). So, it's likely my motivation wasn't purely financial in writing them, huh? All I ask is to at least give me my $10/hour for my effort, and then I'll show you a big chunk of what has taken me just about 40,000 hours now to develop.

But, no, they hammered me for being a shill, and decided that it isn't worth looking at my work. Now I post the levels in here, for free, they get reactions over and over and over, and I'm willing to answer questions on how this is done so anyone can try to duplicate the work. And out there, they have no clue as to what we do. And they don't want to know. And they go on hating, patrolling the forum for 'people like me', making sure they are crushed and driven out. They are very good at what they do; they've succeeded. And we will keep on posting in here, stuff that, to me, seems so good it can't even be real. I guess they won, huh?

(Let me mention that none of the above comments are meant to in any way reflect badly upon Guy, the forum owner. He's between a rock and a hard spot in situations like this, in that he has to let people express their opinions to a point, or he will be seen as too overbearing. Give people freedom, but not too much freedom. It's a tough job.

I lay all the 'blame', 100%, on the handful of 'haters' out there who have an agenda that has little to do with finding truly valuable information, even if it costs, and more about proving the point that anything of value must be free (good luck with that one...), and that anyone who disagrees, or won't acquiesce to their 'authority' in their threads on this, must be driven out.)

Posted-07/29/2011 : 02:07:00

Originally posted by jimkane

Upside levels, short-term, in case we need them, are:

94.50-95.00 (.447 is at 96.41, 1.000 ABCD at 93.50, so in there somewhere?)

98.75-99.00

1303.50-4.75

Center of the areas, as usual. And I think we may be needing them, sooner than one might think...