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jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Welcome back everybody! I just returned for a one week break between my holidays and thought it won't be bad if I share some charts Here is the update of my daily ES chart:
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jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Bulls still can't overcome this downsloping upper ML:
If they don't do it quickly, the major ML may become the next target
Click image for original size
If they don't do it quickly, the major ML may become the next target
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jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
If Silver bears don't act here decisively, "The Two Towers" story may have an alternate end in this case
Click image for original size
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, well, I'll try to answer this, but I want to be extraordinarily careful, as any time I refer to anyone else I usually get in trouble, drawing ire and being misinterpreted. I get so wary I cringe at the thought of ever mentioning anyone else in any post I make. Yet, what is the point of an interactive forum, trying to help people out, if one can't mention others and their posts/thoughts? So I keep doing it...
Before I answer this, I want to know what joed said to you? Why? I mean, joed, and what he says or does has nothing to do with me and my forum. Because, as part of your experience and the fact that you mentioned it here, he made a statement to you of some kind, and it is now part of your consciousness and thinking process. If you don't think any more should be posted in here on it, then please e-mail me privately. I am trying to understand, he assessed you and told you to give up? Give up trading? Give up his methodology? roofer's methodology? I can't even comment on your question until I understand this.
I don't want to get into anything with joed, I don't even know him, and it isn't part of this forum for me to comment on him, but let me say that unless I have misinterpreted what you said there, I don't think it is for anyone to tell another they should give up, even after a full assessment. I think that would be completely inappropriate. So, I'm guessing that's not what he meant.
Like I said, I'll try to answer this after I get your reply on joed, but I will add this. This forum focuses a lot on setups. roofer posts setups, jarek posts setups, rat posts setups, and on and on. One setup after another. Sometimes a target gets posted or a comment that a target was hit and trade closed. That's all we see in here for the most part. I keep trying to get entry dialogue going, active management dialogue going, and so on, all to no avail.
When learning a complex process I feel, if one wants instruction, that instruction must be on all the steps, not just one step. I try to do this in my mentoring. We don't spend that much time on setups, we move on to the long list of things in the entire process. If we don't do that, I feel I am not much of an instructor. Like teaching a pilot how to start the plane and take off, and then giving him a license and setting him loose.
So, roofer posts this:
"what you are asking for is something no one has shown here... how my screens are configured.. how my scans are set up .... how i narrow my focus the night before... how i adjust my focus before the open... how i adjust my focus as the day progresses... what i write in my day to day notes for everything i trade regularly...i have a collection of over 3500 .886 on gap on 5... based on that i have a memory of what has worked best before....anyone who has systematically done the collecting would see what i see...."
One read of that and two things pop into my head. First, it exactly confirms what I just said. There is one hell of a lot more to this than knowing the setup. Second, only the setup is being covering in here. None of what you read above have I ever seen roofer discuss in here. If he has, my apologies, I missed it. Yet it is all critical stuff, without which I don't think a person could put a working 'Trading Plan' together.
So, what I was getting at was this idea that we are really doing little unless roofer can get into details of how he does all the above, or if I can do similar. I do in the mentoring, and if anyone did trade sequences and asked me questions, I would in here. I just disagree with one concept of roofer's (sorry, I hope you don't get mad at me...), and that is that if a person does the work you have they would be able to discover, for their own style and plan, answers to the above points. I think that may be true in some cases, but mostly they won't find those answers or see what you see, or see a similar vision suited for themselves.
I liken it to a person having to figure out all the rest of flying, from maneuvering, to all the rest of things one does in the air, to landing, and so on, after getting up in the air with instructions. Now, do some flying and figure the rest out. I think some may be able to do that, but most won't. It's just what I feel, based on my instructing experience to date, both in and out of the trading realm.
So, based on this, I am getting more and more frustrated day to day just seeing more and more on setups, over and over, day after day. And although I agree some may not have the setups down yet, once they do, for many, I think their progress stops there without guidance on the next steps, just like guidance was provided for the setups. I am not saying the work shouldn't be done, as we all know it is essential, and most shy away from the work.
I am not looking to get suckered in to providing shortcuts for those that don't want to do the work. I am talking about something else. I have seen people do endless work, and they seem to get little out of it except refinement of the techniques. No read, no gut feel, no improvement to the overall process, nothing. Should we tell them to give up? That they just don't 'have it'? Perhaps they can learn and progress quite well with step-by-step help in the next phases, instead of telling them they are now on their own. I learned on my own, now you do it, too.
That's what I am getting at in here. I wanted to step it up to the next level, to start working on and discussing all of what is in the quote above from roofer's post. More of that, less of endless setup after setup with no follow through or discussion.
Before I answer this, I want to know what joed said to you? Why? I mean, joed, and what he says or does has nothing to do with me and my forum. Because, as part of your experience and the fact that you mentioned it here, he made a statement to you of some kind, and it is now part of your consciousness and thinking process. If you don't think any more should be posted in here on it, then please e-mail me privately. I am trying to understand, he assessed you and told you to give up? Give up trading? Give up his methodology? roofer's methodology? I can't even comment on your question until I understand this.
I don't want to get into anything with joed, I don't even know him, and it isn't part of this forum for me to comment on him, but let me say that unless I have misinterpreted what you said there, I don't think it is for anyone to tell another they should give up, even after a full assessment. I think that would be completely inappropriate. So, I'm guessing that's not what he meant.
Like I said, I'll try to answer this after I get your reply on joed, but I will add this. This forum focuses a lot on setups. roofer posts setups, jarek posts setups, rat posts setups, and on and on. One setup after another. Sometimes a target gets posted or a comment that a target was hit and trade closed. That's all we see in here for the most part. I keep trying to get entry dialogue going, active management dialogue going, and so on, all to no avail.
When learning a complex process I feel, if one wants instruction, that instruction must be on all the steps, not just one step. I try to do this in my mentoring. We don't spend that much time on setups, we move on to the long list of things in the entire process. If we don't do that, I feel I am not much of an instructor. Like teaching a pilot how to start the plane and take off, and then giving him a license and setting him loose.
So, roofer posts this:
"what you are asking for is something no one has shown here... how my screens are configured.. how my scans are set up .... how i narrow my focus the night before... how i adjust my focus before the open... how i adjust my focus as the day progresses... what i write in my day to day notes for everything i trade regularly...i have a collection of over 3500 .886 on gap on 5... based on that i have a memory of what has worked best before....anyone who has systematically done the collecting would see what i see...."
One read of that and two things pop into my head. First, it exactly confirms what I just said. There is one hell of a lot more to this than knowing the setup. Second, only the setup is being covering in here. None of what you read above have I ever seen roofer discuss in here. If he has, my apologies, I missed it. Yet it is all critical stuff, without which I don't think a person could put a working 'Trading Plan' together.
So, what I was getting at was this idea that we are really doing little unless roofer can get into details of how he does all the above, or if I can do similar. I do in the mentoring, and if anyone did trade sequences and asked me questions, I would in here. I just disagree with one concept of roofer's (sorry, I hope you don't get mad at me...), and that is that if a person does the work you have they would be able to discover, for their own style and plan, answers to the above points. I think that may be true in some cases, but mostly they won't find those answers or see what you see, or see a similar vision suited for themselves.
I liken it to a person having to figure out all the rest of flying, from maneuvering, to all the rest of things one does in the air, to landing, and so on, after getting up in the air with instructions. Now, do some flying and figure the rest out. I think some may be able to do that, but most won't. It's just what I feel, based on my instructing experience to date, both in and out of the trading realm.
So, based on this, I am getting more and more frustrated day to day just seeing more and more on setups, over and over, day after day. And although I agree some may not have the setups down yet, once they do, for many, I think their progress stops there without guidance on the next steps, just like guidance was provided for the setups. I am not saying the work shouldn't be done, as we all know it is essential, and most shy away from the work.
I am not looking to get suckered in to providing shortcuts for those that don't want to do the work. I am talking about something else. I have seen people do endless work, and they seem to get little out of it except refinement of the techniques. No read, no gut feel, no improvement to the overall process, nothing. Should we tell them to give up? That they just don't 'have it'? Perhaps they can learn and progress quite well with step-by-step help in the next phases, instead of telling them they are now on their own. I learned on my own, now you do it, too.
That's what I am getting at in here. I wanted to step it up to the next level, to start working on and discussing all of what is in the quote above from roofer's post. More of that, less of endless setup after setup with no follow through or discussion.
Originally posted by tx_ches
Are you saying that to be able to develop the intuition to filter trades, you must not just have the setup but must intuit the subtleties of when it will work, how to enter, and then how to manage?
I agree with you that just having the setup is not enough but I want to understand what you think is enough. Joed has already told me I'm wasting my time so you and he are in agreement.
Originally posted by jimkane
And I feel many, if not most people will not develop the experience needed, even if they put the hours in, to properly filter trades.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I forsaked (forsook is the correct word, but I just can't reconcile myself with that...) posting on the nice flat ABCD to keep writing up my last post, watching my own play while typing. I hope everyone saw that. Now, notice the potential bearish ABCD with that flat in the BC leg, at a price flow area. What is the 'context'. Are you biased up, down, or neither?
JA
jarek
Rep: 94
Posts: 3,474
Originally posted by jimkane
... Now, notice the potential bearish ABCD with that flat in the BC leg, at a price flow area...
This was the 4th attempt at this upper ML:
Click image for original size
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Notice the overlapping swings, grinding, non-impulsive look to the entire move down?
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Let's follow up on this. Go to the time shown below on your ES all-sessions chart. The ES was around 1290. It rose from there to 1294.50. Note the first level posted below. It then began to drop. It did a very typical 'W1' first move (my mentor students would know just how typical this was, but that is not necessary information for this example), a nice 'W2' pullback, and then headed back down, hitting a new low for the move at 1278.50. That was a drop of 16 points off the area posted.
Although I didn't post this because it was the middle of the night for me, my key level once this started to sell off was hit within one tick of the center of my grouping level (and the small bounce on the way down was also at an area I'd expect that from). The bounce up after of 22.25 points was right between my two most critical lines (do an obvious TL!). Just amazing, to put it mildly. So, once again, the same point. How, of all the places on the chart this could have risen to and then sold off hard from, why, again, was it one of the levels I posted (in advance, of course)?
Now, I am not saying this is a panacea, or a way to riches. Everyone who has followed me for any length of time knows I am not even hinting at that. I don't know which level, if any, this will respect. I have to have an idea what I think will happen so that I know where I may trade, and on what side. This takes experience. And as I've said, the setup is only 10%-20% of my 'Trading Plan'. But, if one can't see these levels in advance like I do, it's one part of the 'Trading Plan', a critical part, that is missing, and needs to be sorted out.
I will say, as an aside, I just can't let go of the bad experience I had out in the public area. So many jumping on the bandwagon, attacking me, wondering what my agenda was. How about this for an agenda: I seem to be able to find some key levels, in advance, on a repeatable basis and I want to share this with people. If you really want the details, I want at least a token, nominal amount for the books, which took me an incredible amount of time to write.
If you look at how many hours they took me, and how many I've sold, I think I've made like $10 an hour, or less (it's just a guess, I'm not sure what it really is). So, it's likely my motivation wasn't purely financial in writing them, huh? All I ask is to at least give me my $10/hour for my effort, and then I'll show you a big chunk of what has taken me just about 40,000 hours now to develop.
But, no, they hammered me for being a shill, and decided that it isn't worth looking at my work. Now I post the levels in here, for free, they get reactions over and over and over, and I'm willing to answer questions on how this is done so anyone can try to duplicate the work. And out there, they have no clue as to what we do. And they don't want to know. And they go on hating, patrolling the forum for 'people like me', making sure they are crushed and driven out. They are very good at what they do; they've succeeded. And we will keep on posting in here, stuff that, to me, seems so good it can't even be real. I guess they won, huh?
(Let me mention that none of the above comments are meant to in any way reflect badly upon Guy, the forum owner. He's between a rock and a hard spot in situations like this, in that he has to let people express their opinions to a point, or he will be seen as too overbearing. Give people freedom, but not too much freedom. It's a tough job.
I lay all the 'blame', 100%, on the handful of 'haters' out there who have an agenda that has little to do with finding truly valuable information, even if it costs, and more about proving the point that anything of value must be free (good luck with that one...), and that anyone who disagrees, or won't acquiesce to their 'authority' in their threads on this, must be driven out.)
Although I didn't post this because it was the middle of the night for me, my key level once this started to sell off was hit within one tick of the center of my grouping level (and the small bounce on the way down was also at an area I'd expect that from). The bounce up after of 22.25 points was right between my two most critical lines (do an obvious TL!). Just amazing, to put it mildly. So, once again, the same point. How, of all the places on the chart this could have risen to and then sold off hard from, why, again, was it one of the levels I posted (in advance, of course)?
Now, I am not saying this is a panacea, or a way to riches. Everyone who has followed me for any length of time knows I am not even hinting at that. I don't know which level, if any, this will respect. I have to have an idea what I think will happen so that I know where I may trade, and on what side. This takes experience. And as I've said, the setup is only 10%-20% of my 'Trading Plan'. But, if one can't see these levels in advance like I do, it's one part of the 'Trading Plan', a critical part, that is missing, and needs to be sorted out.
I will say, as an aside, I just can't let go of the bad experience I had out in the public area. So many jumping on the bandwagon, attacking me, wondering what my agenda was. How about this for an agenda: I seem to be able to find some key levels, in advance, on a repeatable basis and I want to share this with people. If you really want the details, I want at least a token, nominal amount for the books, which took me an incredible amount of time to write.
If you look at how many hours they took me, and how many I've sold, I think I've made like $10 an hour, or less (it's just a guess, I'm not sure what it really is). So, it's likely my motivation wasn't purely financial in writing them, huh? All I ask is to at least give me my $10/hour for my effort, and then I'll show you a big chunk of what has taken me just about 40,000 hours now to develop.
But, no, they hammered me for being a shill, and decided that it isn't worth looking at my work. Now I post the levels in here, for free, they get reactions over and over and over, and I'm willing to answer questions on how this is done so anyone can try to duplicate the work. And out there, they have no clue as to what we do. And they don't want to know. And they go on hating, patrolling the forum for 'people like me', making sure they are crushed and driven out. They are very good at what they do; they've succeeded. And we will keep on posting in here, stuff that, to me, seems so good it can't even be real. I guess they won, huh?
(Let me mention that none of the above comments are meant to in any way reflect badly upon Guy, the forum owner. He's between a rock and a hard spot in situations like this, in that he has to let people express their opinions to a point, or he will be seen as too overbearing. Give people freedom, but not too much freedom. It's a tough job.
I lay all the 'blame', 100%, on the handful of 'haters' out there who have an agenda that has little to do with finding truly valuable information, even if it costs, and more about proving the point that anything of value must be free (good luck with that one...), and that anyone who disagrees, or won't acquiesce to their 'authority' in their threads on this, must be driven out.)
Posted-07/29/2011 : 02:07:00
Originally posted by jimkane
Upside levels, short-term, in case we need them, are:
94.50-95.00 (.447 is at 96.41, 1.000 ABCD at 93.50, so in there somewhere?)
98.75-99.00
1303.50-4.75
Center of the areas, as usual. And I think we may be needing them, sooner than one might think...