I sure wish someone else would step up and start these weekly topics...

Close to entry signal on silver

??

definitely sees the line...

15-min. GC all-sessions (obviously).

Originally posted by MarcinO

Jim, which timeframe do you mean?

Originally posted by jimkane

No responses, eh? Okay, are you bearish on gold in here? If you aren't bearish in here, would you take a bearish setup?

Low was 30.25...

Originally posted by jimkane

...This, as the ES sits on its ledge, trying to decide if it wants to drop to 30-31...

I hope everyone realizes I'm back to my old sarcastic ways. I tried, at the request of a few readers, to not use sarcasm as a major means of communication in here. It was hard to interpret for many readers, especially those with English as a second language. But, alas, I grew bored of mending my ways. It's just a part of who I am, and how I teach. I'm sorry about that.

If I don't have fun in here then I tire of posting. The more angry I get about the manipulation and loss of free market principles (even though it doesn't seem to negatively affect the methodology, in my opinion), the more sarcastic I get. Anyway, there is some sarcasm threaded throughout last night's posts, so take that into consideration.

Originally posted by jimkane

They are 'basing' it here to get it ready to jump up. Watch this bearish ABCD here. When it fails, it's clear to run. Okay, so it didn't go straight up, but you see any sellers? No Greek bailout, this was supposed to be 'do or die' for the entire planet if this didn't get done by the Sunday open. It didn't get done, and the futures are down a point and a half and the Euro was just up a little while ago. What does it take for this to go down? The answer: a giant asteroid splitting the earth in half... Nothing less will do. And I'm not even sure that would do it...

Originally posted by jimkane

Oh, so what that the futures open down a few points. They'll go straight up from here, watch and see...

I finally checked in and thought I'd answer Marcin's question, and now I'm on a roll, with all the follow-ups that I've wanted to post since last night...

What point am I trying to make here? The 'driver' for a play is never the setup, it's always the 'context'. The setup is the way in, the 'context' let's you know if you want to be in. How can you be looking at a bearish setup unless your 'context' tells you that is feasible? You must have a bearish bias to consider this setup. Were you bearish?

If so, then it makes sense to consider the setup. If you aren't bearish, then it makes no sense to me to consider the setup. Why would you take a bearish setup if you aren't bearish, or a bullish setup if you aren't bullish? So, answer that question first. I see many, many traders from all over trade setups without 'context'. Recall one of my favorite KT maxims: "Without 'context' you have nothing."

Originally posted by jimkane

No responses, eh? Okay, are you bearish on gold in here? If you aren't bearish in here, would you take a bearish setup?

Why didn't I say ABCD? C'mon, folks, no interaction in here at all? You want me to spoon feed you everything? Because it 'morphed' into a 5-wave (or to some an Elliott abcde, but those really should have overlapping swings, and this didn't). Why? That one I'm not going to answer.

The answer is right there, but I'm not going to post it. Don't post the answer if you know it, because I'm not going to say yes or no. If you think you know it, and really, really need confirmation from me (as to what reason I think it did that) then send me an e-mail. Certain things I just don't want posted anywhere.

BTW, a 5-wave correction? Yes, they happen. It's in Miner's DT book. They are uncommon, but I see them here and there. And, is it, in the strictest sense, not a '5-wave' sequence because 'W3' was just under twenty cents less than 'W1'? No, that can happen (Miner's DT book, page 3-26). 'W3' just can't be the shortest leg.

Originally posted by jimkane

You can lead a horse to water...

Okay, so far CL moving up off its ABCD, and gold down off its 'correction' (why didn't I say ABCD?)...

So, who followed up on this, and read the latest post? Here's a quote from that, from here http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3342/your-trepidatious-turd :

"So, since gold and silver were punished by their respective cartels based upon a fictional event, don't we have to assume that a "raid" has begun and that more selling will be forthcoming?

Then, did you notice that gold got hammered for $15 on the Friday afternoon Globex? This is a bad sign, too, as it could mean that someone got warned that a full-on raid was coming on Monday and wanted out...fast. It also could mean that someone got wind of the lousy gold CoT numbers and made for the exits.

Speaking of the CoT...it stunk. Gold, in particular, was lousy. We saw a huge jump in the spec longs and bank shorts along with a big drop in the bank longs. This is not bullish at all and I'm confident that the CoT situation has only deteriorated since Tuesday."

I'm not saying just agree with whatever this guy says. I'm just saying I find his analysis pretty good, and it is something I work into what my charts say. And you all see how this setup played out, and how they hit it on the European open.

Originally posted by jimkane

Here's what I think is one of the best blogs out there for following the PM's and getting some additional perspective on what's going on.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/

For me, as I think for many traders, reading context, choosing right trigger and management of trade are the most difficult part of trading. I'm hardest working on it.

PS. I like your sense of humor.

Originally posted by jimkane

I finally checked in and thought I'd answer Marcin's question, and now I'm on a roll, with all the follow-ups that I've wanted to post since last night...

What point am I trying to make here? The 'driver' for a play is never the setup, it's always the 'context'. The setup is the way in, the 'context' let's you know if you want to be in. How can you be looking at a bearish setup unless your 'context' tells you that is feasible? You must have a bearish bias to consider this setup. Were you bearish?

If so, then it makes sense to consider the setup. If you aren't bearish, then it makes no sense to me to consider the setup. Why would you take a bearish setup if you aren't bearish, or a bullish setup if you aren't bullish? So, answer that question first. I see many, many traders from all over trade setups without 'context'. Recall one of my favorite KT maxims: "Without 'context' you have nothing."

Originally posted by jimkane

No responses, eh? Okay, are you bearish on gold in here? If you aren't bearish in here, would you take a bearish setup?

Post like this has incredible value for my learning process. Thank you Jim.

I've got many questions how to act in few areas which are shown on the chart and I found are critical in early stage of trade, but I know you can't answer it on the forum. I have ideas and experiment with it and I'm very interested in opinion about it.

Originally posted by jimkane

Okay, here's a chart showing some of my posts, marked at the times, as best as I could do it, when I posted them. Also check out the post I made at 15:53:40. I couldn't find the room to squeeze that one on the chart. Everything I mentioned was based on the methodology. Look at some of the other posts, like the one about the lines coming in. Look at that EXP ABCD. Study the higher timeframes and see why I thought this may go up (other than it was Friday close and time to prep for Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday).

No matter how many cool areas lie below, or how much I want this to sell, 'they' want it up, and the defense of the GZ was a clear signal. Note my post before I started this sequence, about rigorously defending the LOD via the GZ. It wasn't my first mention of that. Clues. Technical factors. The methodology. What roofer likes to call 'the tools'. Now, do some work. Study what led up to what I have shown here.

Click image for original size

Chart created on QCharts, courtesy eSignal.