Wow, was that some kind of week last week. The things going on, they were just amazing. There is just so much I see, in all honesty, it's way, way, way less than 1% that I can show or discuss in here. Part of that is that this is such a limited venue, a forum. As an old IT guy I used to know would say to me when we'd try to do something complex via e-mail or phone: 'We're constrained by the media with which we are working..." And, mostly, I've just advanced the craft, the methodology, to such levels that even I can't grasp the magnitude of what I have found. I feel like I'm in this rapidly advancing state, and I had another little mini revelation (maybe it would be better termed an epiphany?) on Thursday night into Friday. It's just amazing what I've learned in this journey.

Anyway, let's move on to my working topic. I feel this market has greatly increased the odds the top is now in, the 'bull' is done, and we will see some serious downside. I mentioned the key levels in last week's topic. I would like to see sub-1000, and there are some lower 900's areas that look great. Somewhere in there. There are some monster bounce spots on the way down. I'll be looking to use the legs down for downside bias, and the bounces for the upside bias for short-term trades, as well as using the entire legs for potential call and put plays for longer holds. Same plan as always.

I doubt they will let this go in here without much infighting and battle. Then, at some point, if the scenario unfolds, like in 2008, they just let it go, 'W3' happens, and it drops intensely. One needs to be ready for that, or it can drop so hard and fast there will be no way in. So, as I showed this past few weeks, the basis of my approach is to 'probe' every possible rollover spot that hits an area and reacts. I live for big bounces to set this up.

Now, let me note, one characteristic of bounces in bear markets is that pundits always (always) call each and every one on the way down the end of the 'correction' and then as the drop gets big enough they admit it's a bear and call each one the end of the bear. They are wrong every time, but they'll keep doing it until the end. Then when the magazine cover shows a big grizzly and the pundits say things have changed, it will never be the same, it's all over now, at nearly that exact point the bear is over. Watch for it.

I plan to look to lean on every bounce, to even wish for them. Play the countertrend bounces, as they are usually insanely strong and impulsive (my favorite types of moves), and the trend moves down, which are also generally very strong and impulsive. This is my favorite time to trade, my favorite style. Lots of volatility, lots of movement, and strong, impulsive trends that go far. My own personal nirvana.

So, hopefully this will finally play out. If so, it should be really, really fun. I can't wait to see all the 'experts', pundits, and guys like Carl Futia call the bottom over and over and over. I've been waiting almost four years. I think it may now be 'my time'. Long live Tim Knight!

BTW, look on the main page of my forum here at the number of reads for my section last week! Wow!

I added a quote to the 'Can't-Miss-Quotes' page. Check it out.

This is interesting.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-08/eight-scariest-charts-equity-bulls

I'm watching 76.25-77.25, and then 74.25-.50, for short-term clues. First level is the ABCD, second the obvious TL. Mostly, though, this is just swinging in a range, refusing to make any real decisions.

Bounces right off 76.50, right up to a .447 and line area, and rolls hard. Right back to 76.50. Now we see. If this fails, I'm really watching that 74.50-75.50 area.

And it failed and went right to that area by the time that post was visible to me.

It seems like a new LOD and bigger low in imminent.

So, notice a few things. First, it retested that area, the area I posted. I'm not bragging when I point this out, I'm saying it is 'seeing' things from the methodology. In other words, I understand it at this point. Second, notice how I said it looks like a new LOD and even more was imminent? And instead they come in on the 'retest' and goose it up. Make it look one way, run it the other. Over and over.

I'm not sure if this bump up can sustain, and with the close looming I'd think they'd want to pick either up or down, but you never know. 'Holiday' trading, 216 stocks not trading on the NYSE due to an 'outage' or whatever with some of their equipment, it may just be a boring close. I'd expect them to gun it up into the close, or after-cash ES close.

Nope, they are crushing it into the cash close.

I just heard this was the lowest full-day volume of the year. But, it is a holiday...

This is cool. A small ABCD created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which is producing a strong bounce now. Where to from here? Another morph? A new high? Chop? I think the new high would be most likely. DELL just disappointed, and zero reaction so far from the ES, so we'll see. I think the ES, if it gets going, wants that mid-70's area. If.