Wow, was that some kind of week last week. The things going on, they were just amazing. There is just so much I see, in all honesty, it's way, way, way less than 1% that I can show or discuss in here. Part of that is that this is such a limited venue, a forum. As an old IT guy I used to know would say to me when we'd try to do something complex via e-mail or phone: 'We're constrained by the media with which we are working..." And, mostly, I've just advanced the craft, the methodology, to such levels that even I can't grasp the magnitude of what I have found. I feel like I'm in this rapidly advancing state, and I had another little mini revelation (maybe it would be better termed an epiphany?) on Thursday night into Friday. It's just amazing what I've learned in this journey.

Anyway, let's move on to my working topic. I feel this market has greatly increased the odds the top is now in, the 'bull' is done, and we will see some serious downside. I mentioned the key levels in last week's topic. I would like to see sub-1000, and there are some lower 900's areas that look great. Somewhere in there. There are some monster bounce spots on the way down. I'll be looking to use the legs down for downside bias, and the bounces for the upside bias for short-term trades, as well as using the entire legs for potential call and put plays for longer holds. Same plan as always.

I doubt they will let this go in here without much infighting and battle. Then, at some point, if the scenario unfolds, like in 2008, they just let it go, 'W3' happens, and it drops intensely. One needs to be ready for that, or it can drop so hard and fast there will be no way in. So, as I showed this past few weeks, the basis of my approach is to 'probe' every possible rollover spot that hits an area and reacts. I live for big bounces to set this up.

Now, let me note, one characteristic of bounces in bear markets is that pundits always (always) call each and every one on the way down the end of the 'correction' and then as the drop gets big enough they admit it's a bear and call each one the end of the bear. They are wrong every time, but they'll keep doing it until the end. Then when the magazine cover shows a big grizzly and the pundits say things have changed, it will never be the same, it's all over now, at nearly that exact point the bear is over. Watch for it.

I plan to look to lean on every bounce, to even wish for them. Play the countertrend bounces, as they are usually insanely strong and impulsive (my favorite types of moves), and the trend moves down, which are also generally very strong and impulsive. This is my favorite time to trade, my favorite style. Lots of volatility, lots of movement, and strong, impulsive trends that go far. My own personal nirvana.

So, hopefully this will finally play out. If so, it should be really, really fun. I can't wait to see all the 'experts', pundits, and guys like Carl Futia call the bottom over and over and over. I've been waiting almost four years. I think it may now be 'my time'. Long live Tim Knight!

That's a nice little pop open. They like the GZ and 15-min TL quite well.

They are loving CSCO, it's just exploding, up almost 8%, and that's for a monster-cap company that you never hear about (ever) anymore.

It never fails to tickle my funny bone when you see a jump like this in a company on 'good earnings' and the ES jumps, which is expected, but crude also jumps. Like oil should be more expensive now because the CSCO manipulated massaged earnings number was better than the purposefully too low earnings estimate. Just too funny.

So, a bounce to 76-77 here (but maybe 75.50) would be nice. I am cautious, though, that this GZ may drive this higher. It might even try 81ish. And it's possible this may all be a 'base' and it's headed much higher.

75.50 hit. Now watch closely and let's see what we can learn in here.

Rolling down off that 75.50. Now at the .447. Yawn.

Now, I'm watching somewhere between 70.50-71.50 (if it gets there, this 72.25 may be it), as I see that as the likely decision point between this is now going up and it's going to take out that afternoon low. If it took out that afternoon low the morning low is in sight, and if that goes, the GLOBEX low is in sight. If that goes, the low for the entire big move is in sight. It could cause a cascade of stops. Believe you me, they know this.

As far as the higher timeframe, recall what I said about my key areas. Now read this post. I love curves. I've worked some polynomial concepts into my methodology. This chart is really cool. Nothing I didn't already see, but likely something you haven't seen. It shows why I am looking where I am (keeping in mind I still feel if they get it there they will game those lows to the left, and the 'round' 1,000 level).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-13/strange-and-worrisome-symmetry-bernankes-bull-market

So far, so good on the drop off my posted area. Now deep into the key 'test' zone. Do or die. Die you pig!

They are jumping up off the area. You know they have to. They don't want the cascade. Yawn.

This is cool. A small ABCD created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which is producing a strong bounce now. Where to from here? Another morph? A new high? Chop? I think the new high would be most likely. DELL just disappointed, and zero reaction so far from the ES, so we'll see. I think the ES, if it gets going, wants that mid-70's area. If.