Wow, was that some kind of week last week. The things going on, they were just amazing. There is just so much I see, in all honesty, it's way, way, way less than 1% that I can show or discuss in here. Part of that is that this is such a limited venue, a forum. As an old IT guy I used to know would say to me when we'd try to do something complex via e-mail or phone: 'We're constrained by the media with which we are working..." And, mostly, I've just advanced the craft, the methodology, to such levels that even I can't grasp the magnitude of what I have found. I feel like I'm in this rapidly advancing state, and I had another little mini revelation (maybe it would be better termed an epiphany?) on Thursday night into Friday. It's just amazing what I've learned in this journey.

Anyway, let's move on to my working topic. I feel this market has greatly increased the odds the top is now in, the 'bull' is done, and we will see some serious downside. I mentioned the key levels in last week's topic. I would like to see sub-1000, and there are some lower 900's areas that look great. Somewhere in there. There are some monster bounce spots on the way down. I'll be looking to use the legs down for downside bias, and the bounces for the upside bias for short-term trades, as well as using the entire legs for potential call and put plays for longer holds. Same plan as always.

I doubt they will let this go in here without much infighting and battle. Then, at some point, if the scenario unfolds, like in 2008, they just let it go, 'W3' happens, and it drops intensely. One needs to be ready for that, or it can drop so hard and fast there will be no way in. So, as I showed this past few weeks, the basis of my approach is to 'probe' every possible rollover spot that hits an area and reacts. I live for big bounces to set this up.

Now, let me note, one characteristic of bounces in bear markets is that pundits always (always) call each and every one on the way down the end of the 'correction' and then as the drop gets big enough they admit it's a bear and call each one the end of the bear. They are wrong every time, but they'll keep doing it until the end. Then when the magazine cover shows a big grizzly and the pundits say things have changed, it will never be the same, it's all over now, at nearly that exact point the bear is over. Watch for it.

I plan to look to lean on every bounce, to even wish for them. Play the countertrend bounces, as they are usually insanely strong and impulsive (my favorite types of moves), and the trend moves down, which are also generally very strong and impulsive. This is my favorite time to trade, my favorite style. Lots of volatility, lots of movement, and strong, impulsive trends that go far. My own personal nirvana.

So, hopefully this will finally play out. If so, it should be really, really fun. I can't wait to see all the 'experts', pundits, and guys like Carl Futia call the bottom over and over and over. I've been waiting almost four years. I think it may now be 'my time'. Long live Tim Knight!

If they manage to goose this up, I'm watching:

77.00-78.50

81.00-.50

84.75-85.00 (but you know they'll want the stops from that 86.25 high...)

These are center of areas, not the whole area, of course.

First level hit, no respect so far.

I just got up for a bathroom break, took one look, and immediately thought 'I wonder if this wants that 88-89 area?' I'm adding that to the watch list, in case, so I don't have to mention it after the fact and say 'I really was thinking this...' Of course, now that I mention this, that was probably the high tick there... Back to bed.

I'll do my usual tease. High was 81.75. Off by a tick. Since the level I posted was only 2 ticks wide, and we know it's always 'center of area' unless otherwise noted, that was a 'dead hit' in my books. Then down 19.50 points (Hmmmm, have we discussed 20+ points in here before?), right back to the higher timeframe SL, and a nice stop run 1.25 points below that previous low. 'Nuff said.

Originally posted by jimkane

If they manage to goose this up, I'm watching:

77.00-78.50

81.00-.50

84.75-85.00 (but you know they'll want the stops from that 86.25 high...)

These are center of areas, not the whole area, of course.

That new low was 20.00 points from the high.

Here's those higher timeframe levels again.

Originally posted by jimkane

I'll post some 'refined' levels, and then, if I keep my word, I'm done posting for the night. That will last until I see something, of course.

52.00-55.50 (note a key .300 is at 44.40)

26.25-.75 is the upper Fib area, the lines depend on when it gets there (see below)

8.75-10.75. The lines all converge here around 14 about a week from now.

So, on the second level, that converges with the rising lines from say 2-4 weeks from now. I don't see that, but you never know. Otherwise, it may see the Fibs and the lines may just sit a bit below, and have their influence from there. Or, it may drop down to that next level and hit the lines, all in a tight confluence.

If all that gives way I have something around 1284-85. But, once the above gives way, 'the move' may be on...

Okay, I see one of two things happening. This is going to find some support in here somewhere, as posted, or that super-key daily area, lining up with lower timeframe areas, is going to give way. If so, I'd expect a swoooooooooooooooooooooosh of epic proportions. Just my opinion. I think the support will hold for now. It should produce a big bounce. If not, that's a real sign, again, in my opinion. So get ready in here for 'something' to happen. And soon.

Get ready, it's showtime.

By far, in my opinion, the biggest decision this market has made in a looooooooooooooong time.

This is hanging on the edge of a cliff by the tippy tips of it's fingers...

This is cool. A small ABCD created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which is producing a strong bounce now. Where to from here? Another morph? A new high? Chop? I think the new high would be most likely. DELL just disappointed, and zero reaction so far from the ES, so we'll see. I think the ES, if it gets going, wants that mid-70's area. If.