Wow, was that some kind of week last week. The things going on, they were just amazing. There is just so much I see, in all honesty, it's way, way, way less than 1% that I can show or discuss in here. Part of that is that this is such a limited venue, a forum. As an old IT guy I used to know would say to me when we'd try to do something complex via e-mail or phone: 'We're constrained by the media with which we are working..." And, mostly, I've just advanced the craft, the methodology, to such levels that even I can't grasp the magnitude of what I have found. I feel like I'm in this rapidly advancing state, and I had another little mini revelation (maybe it would be better termed an epiphany?) on Thursday night into Friday. It's just amazing what I've learned in this journey.

Anyway, let's move on to my working topic. I feel this market has greatly increased the odds the top is now in, the 'bull' is done, and we will see some serious downside. I mentioned the key levels in last week's topic. I would like to see sub-1000, and there are some lower 900's areas that look great. Somewhere in there. There are some monster bounce spots on the way down. I'll be looking to use the legs down for downside bias, and the bounces for the upside bias for short-term trades, as well as using the entire legs for potential call and put plays for longer holds. Same plan as always.

I doubt they will let this go in here without much infighting and battle. Then, at some point, if the scenario unfolds, like in 2008, they just let it go, 'W3' happens, and it drops intensely. One needs to be ready for that, or it can drop so hard and fast there will be no way in. So, as I showed this past few weeks, the basis of my approach is to 'probe' every possible rollover spot that hits an area and reacts. I live for big bounces to set this up.

Now, let me note, one characteristic of bounces in bear markets is that pundits always (always) call each and every one on the way down the end of the 'correction' and then as the drop gets big enough they admit it's a bear and call each one the end of the bear. They are wrong every time, but they'll keep doing it until the end. Then when the magazine cover shows a big grizzly and the pundits say things have changed, it will never be the same, it's all over now, at nearly that exact point the bear is over. Watch for it.

I plan to look to lean on every bounce, to even wish for them. Play the countertrend bounces, as they are usually insanely strong and impulsive (my favorite types of moves), and the trend moves down, which are also generally very strong and impulsive. This is my favorite time to trade, my favorite style. Lots of volatility, lots of movement, and strong, impulsive trends that go far. My own personal nirvana.

So, hopefully this will finally play out. If so, it should be really, really fun. I can't wait to see all the 'experts', pundits, and guys like Carl Futia call the bottom over and over and over. I've been waiting almost four years. I think it may now be 'my time'. Long live Tim Knight!

Those 216 stocks that didn't trade today on the NYSE, it was because their "computerized matching engine was malfunctioning".

I was going to post a few levels, but honestly, I'm just not in the mood to do much posting. Anyway, since this is dropping I'll post them before it's after the fact.

69.25-.75

64.50-66.25 (Edit note: I came back and changed this from 65.50 to 66.25 'after-the-fact' because that was the area, and I posted it incorrectly, just to be straight up with this change. If you know my Fib work this will be obvious.)

59ish

These are approximations, do your own work. Maybe all they wanted was the stops and this 71.25 will be it. Maybe later I'll post some higher timeframe levels, in case this really gets selling.

A lot comes in from the higher timeframe around 55-59, so that overlaps the very short-term last level.

Myself, I'd like to see much lower, and I'm expecting it.

69.50 draws the bounce.

Originally posted by jimkane

I was going to post a few levels, but honestly, I'm just not in the mood to do much posting. Anyway, since this is dropping I'll post them before it's after the fact.

69.25-.75

64.50-66.25 (Edit note: I came back and changed this from 65.50 to 66.25 'after-the-fact' because that was the area, and I posted it incorrectly, just to be straight up with this change. If you know my Fib work this will be obvious.)

59ish

These are approximations, do your own work. Maybe all they wanted was the stops and this 71.25 will be it. Maybe later I'll post some higher timeframe levels, in case this really gets selling.

Bounces to where? .300/.382 overlap. Yawn.

I'm not saying it won't go any higher. I'm just saying it bounces right up to that key overlap and checks back. Exactly as I would expect.

Here's a pretty good summary of what I'm seeing, and what I've been saying in here. This is worth the read:

http://slopeofhope.com/2012/11/here-it-comes-by-market-sniper.html

I'll post some 'refined' levels, and then, if I keep my word, I'm done posting for the night. That will last until I see something, of course.

52.00-55.50 (note a key .300 is at 44.40)

26.25-.75 is the upper Fib area, the lines depend on when it gets there (see below)

8.75-10.75. The lines all converge here around 14 about a week from now.

So, on the second level, that converges with the rising lines from say 2-4 weeks from now. I don't see that, but you never know. Otherwise, it may see the Fibs and the lines may just sit a bit below, and have their influence from there. Or, it may drop down to that next level and hit the lines, all in a tight confluence.

If all that gives way I have something around 1284-85. But, once the above gives way, 'the move' may be on.

Of course, none of this may unfold. Maybe that was the low there for the entire correction, and up we go to new 'bulls#%&' market highs. Just like all the bulls say. But, it's the framework for my work right now at this moment. That could change in well under a fraction of a second if something unfolds to change the layout for me.

I almost posted 67.75 as a minor sub-level, but I thought that would be too much. It seemed more likely it would reach the next level anyway. For my advanced students, you should easily be able to see why that was a minor level, I'd hope.

This is cool. A small ABCD created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which is producing a strong bounce now. Where to from here? Another morph? A new high? Chop? I think the new high would be most likely. DELL just disappointed, and zero reaction so far from the ES, so we'll see. I think the ES, if it gets going, wants that mid-70's area. If.