Wow, was that some kind of week last week. The things going on, they were just amazing. There is just so much I see, in all honesty, it's way, way, way less than 1% that I can show or discuss in here. Part of that is that this is such a limited venue, a forum. As an old IT guy I used to know would say to me when we'd try to do something complex via e-mail or phone: 'We're constrained by the media with which we are working..." And, mostly, I've just advanced the craft, the methodology, to such levels that even I can't grasp the magnitude of what I have found. I feel like I'm in this rapidly advancing state, and I had another little mini revelation (maybe it would be better termed an epiphany?) on Thursday night into Friday. It's just amazing what I've learned in this journey.

Anyway, let's move on to my working topic. I feel this market has greatly increased the odds the top is now in, the 'bull' is done, and we will see some serious downside. I mentioned the key levels in last week's topic. I would like to see sub-1000, and there are some lower 900's areas that look great. Somewhere in there. There are some monster bounce spots on the way down. I'll be looking to use the legs down for downside bias, and the bounces for the upside bias for short-term trades, as well as using the entire legs for potential call and put plays for longer holds. Same plan as always.

I doubt they will let this go in here without much infighting and battle. Then, at some point, if the scenario unfolds, like in 2008, they just let it go, 'W3' happens, and it drops intensely. One needs to be ready for that, or it can drop so hard and fast there will be no way in. So, as I showed this past few weeks, the basis of my approach is to 'probe' every possible rollover spot that hits an area and reacts. I live for big bounces to set this up.

Now, let me note, one characteristic of bounces in bear markets is that pundits always (always) call each and every one on the way down the end of the 'correction' and then as the drop gets big enough they admit it's a bear and call each one the end of the bear. They are wrong every time, but they'll keep doing it until the end. Then when the magazine cover shows a big grizzly and the pundits say things have changed, it will never be the same, it's all over now, at nearly that exact point the bear is over. Watch for it.

I plan to look to lean on every bounce, to even wish for them. Play the countertrend bounces, as they are usually insanely strong and impulsive (my favorite types of moves), and the trend moves down, which are also generally very strong and impulsive. This is my favorite time to trade, my favorite style. Lots of volatility, lots of movement, and strong, impulsive trends that go far. My own personal nirvana.

So, hopefully this will finally play out. If so, it should be really, really fun. I can't wait to see all the 'experts', pundits, and guys like Carl Futia call the bottom over and over and over. I've been waiting almost four years. I think it may now be 'my time'. Long live Tim Knight!

I just can't get over the weakness...

Do they want to do the entire bear market in a week or two?

This may be a 'retest', but it truly looks ready to collapse any second...

So, if they get this bounce going at all first I'm looking around 66, then mid to upper 70's. I'm watching around 58-59 and 62 on the way, in case (these are very short-term levels). Note the key .447 is at 63.92. My strong preference would be that mid-60's level at the time of the European open. I can dream, can't I?

I can't get over how nuts they are going on this!

Very short-term it's out of gas here. Anything more implies it has jumped degree and is now in a bigger move.

Okay, this is the very short-term key spot here. Now we see. It is acting like it wants say 75-77, but I'm 'afraid' (and Tim Knight was talking about something similar and he felt sick about it) it may want the low 1400's...

I'm 'sure' it will react here, but will it do what I want and roll over? I doubt it. It has that frenzied feel that says we shifted gears. We'll see. They are good at that game where they make it look that way, only to forsake it.

Wow, not only is it reacting to the area, it's a bigger reaction than I expected. Probably done in here, but let's see.

.382 at key line stops it dead. Now we see. If this doesn't go up from here I have reason to believe it may likely drop another three points or so, at least.

This is cool. A small ABCD created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which created a bounce, which morphed into a bigger ABCD, which is producing a strong bounce now. Where to from here? Another morph? A new high? Chop? I think the new high would be most likely. DELL just disappointed, and zero reaction so far from the ES, so we'll see. I think the ES, if it gets going, wants that mid-70's area. If.