Just getting ready... Champing at the bit...

I think this may be quite a week. The last two days of last week, for example, were so harmonic and had so many aspect of my work (especially the more advanced stuff) that I look back and simply can't believe it. Sometimes the market just blows my mind. The order is just unfathomable to me. Anyway, I'm really looking forward to the action.

At long last Part III is here, but he says there is a Part IV coming... He did say that Part IV will be the final installment. I kinda want to be done with it, but also really like the series, and don't want it to end. Anyway, for those who are following this, it's time for another read.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=58756

It's a tough read here with the current structure as far as how high they may run this (for now let's say assuming the downtrend will resume). There are some things around from here up to say 67.25 (probably the best part of that area is from 64.50-67.25), another very key level around 70.00-72.50, and then a deep backtest level around 81-85 area. Now I see what it does...

Okay, now into the heart of the first area. I can't imagine this doing anything but heading for new all-time highs, but we'll see. Now, let me qualify this, so what I am saying doesn't get misconstrued. I am not overly bullish here. I am not thinking a good play is get in and ride until new highs. I am very ambivalent about what direction it may take in here. The bull market top may be in, right at my previously posted area from the weekly chart. Or, this may be ready to resume my other scenario, a push into Oct, a pullback, then a final ascent into Jan '14, and then the bull top is in.

Right now I have zero idea which of these is more likely. As he said in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: "If a stock doesn't act right don't touch it; because, being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going. No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit."

I'm not saying there haven't been plenty of potential short-term trades in here and likely many more coming up. I think there are. But it would be a total WAG (see the terminology page if you forgot...) for me to say intermediate-term where I think this is headed. Why is this so? Because we may have put in a long running bull market top. Or we may not have. The powers that be may plan to manipulate this up more against all economic sense and sensibility. Or they may not. They may be done distributing to you and I. So, in the meantime I will look at the shorter timeframe.

I could guess, and then if I happened to be right I could come back in and brag about it. Or I could post some after-the-fact charts when we are at new all-time highs showing how the 31.50 low was a push through the 40-42 area, right to the 'backstop' stuff that was right there. But, I don't play that game in here. I tell it like I think it is in the real world of trying to do actual trades and make a net profit. And I have less than zero clue where this is going in the intermediate-term. No diagnosis, no intermediate-term play for me. End of story.

If it does set new all-time highs from here it will look, after-the-fact, like a no-brainer to be long off 31.50. And if someone had a call play here I wouldn't say it was a stupid play. I just don't have a clear view if the odds for it hitting new highs are similar to when I would favor a play like that. As the bull gets closer to its final slaughter time this will get harder and harder to see, and being on the put side (at favorable spots) is going to be the higher odds play, in my opinion. Such a play down to 40-42 was very reasonable. The bet for new highs is much more 'iffy'.

Okay, enough said, the point is clear. Now we see.

ES totally 'there' for the first area. It could push it up a little more, but this is the first real 'test' spot. Given it's Sunday night, with Monday coming and then 'Super-Tuesday', I suspect it will use one of these areas to drop it for better prices in the AM, and then up some more. That's my framework, same as always lately.

Deep in heart of Texas. 67.00. Time to see imminent.

Well, it surely 'sees' that area, but will it come in any more, now that's a totally different question. That area I mentioned in the low 70's, that would be a nice place to bring it in from in the morning. Then it could head up to that low 80's area. That would be the most tradeable scenario, I think. But, we have to take whatever it gives us, and work with that.

If he hadn't lived before my time I'd think he was quoting me.

"If you have a minute, I'll tell you how to make money in stocks. Buy low and sell high. Now if you have five or ten years, I'll tell you how to tell when stocks are low and high."

Jesse Livermore

This one looks like KT philosophy, indeed.

Originally posted by jimkane

If he hadn't lived before my time I'd think he was quoting me.

"If you have a minute, I'll tell you how to make money in stocks. Buy low and sell high. Now if you have five or ten years, I'll tell you how to tell when stocks are low and high."

Jesse Livermore

Maybe this is very close (I think it might be), and maybe it's not even in the ballpark. One thing I do think is if this isn't how it unfolds, it will be some other scenario equally vile. Sorry. I can't believe my 'golden years' as I near 'retirement' are going to be spent like this...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-31/guest-post-what-expect-during-next-stage-collapse